PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IWX holding off on upgrade for now... INTENSE WINTER STORM OVR THE CO ROCKIES THIS AFTN HEADLINES THE DOWNSTREAM THREAT THIS PD AS IT HEADS OUT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND THEN NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.00Z GUIDANCE HAD FINALLY NARROWED TWD A CONCILIATORY CONSENSUS TRACK OF STACKED/DEEP MID LVL CIRC FM ERN MO SUN AFTN ENE INTO SWRN OH BY MON AM. HWVR 12Z GUIDANCE ACRS THE BOARD HAD BROKE SHARPLY SWD FM PRIOR WELL ALIGNED 00Z CONSENSUS TRACK. IN ADDN AND OF MORE PROBLEMATIC NOTE IN LATEST 12Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE IS LACK OF NWD MOISTENING SEEN DURING THE DAY SUN AHD OF EJECTING SHARP MID LVL TROUGH TIED TO MODELED EXPLOSION OF CONVN THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INVOF OF SFC WMFNTL BNDRY AND SWD ALG SFC CDFNT DOWN TO THE GOMEX. INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS LOOK CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED BY SUN MORNING OVR THE OZARK PLATEAU AND DEEMED SUSPECT AFT THAT. HWVR GROSS MULTI-MODEL SWD SHIFT LOOKS LEGIT PER STG UPR SPEED MAX SWWD OF CO WAVE AND MORE LIKELY TO DIG SYS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV SHOWN. AS SUCH AND IN EXPECTATION THAT THIS IS DEFINITIVE...WILL START WHITTLING DOWN AT LEAST NRN EXTENT OF POPS AND SLOW EWD ARRIVAL AS DRY ENTRAINMENT ASSOCD/W DEEPENING ERLY LL FLW DELAYS TOP DOWN SATURATION TIL AFTN WEST TO ERLY EVE EAST. STILL CONTD EGREGIOUS SHIFTS AS SEEN IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS YIELDS ONGOING AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THUS WILL STAND PAT W/EXISTING HEADLINES GIVEN PROXIMITY OF SHARP N-S QPF GRADIENT AND IN CONSIDERATION OF BUST POTENTIAL EITHER WAY YET JIMMY A A FEW NW OHIO COUNTIES INTO THE POTENTIAL HIGHER ACCUM SRN WSW SEGMENT.COASTAL HANDOFF XPCD BY MON AFTN AS STG SRN PLAINS UPR JET DRIVES TWD THE WRN ATL AND XPC WRN BOUND OF DECAYING MID LVL CIRC AND ASSOCD LL TROWAL WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY INTO LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS THROUGH THE PD CONTD WELL BLO NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 My original 1-2" call for here and the QC was bullish. Looks like dusting to maybe 1" before the bright skies of tomorrow wipe it all back away. Good luck, and congrats to the STL/LAF crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 STL mentioning possibility of power outages due to the heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This kinda looks like a tale of two storms here...the first part will be wet/gloppy and then the second part turns less water logged. I don't think we're going to maintain the high water content for the entirety of the storm which should help with the power outage issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 STL mentioning possibility of power outages due to the heavy wet snow. We had a similar storm in March of 97 and some were without power for weeks. After that they made an effort to really keep things cut back away from the lines. Hopefully all the areas that get heavy snow will be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IND upgrades to winter storm warning for all of there counties except Jackson, Jennings, and Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IND upgrades to winter storm warning for all of there counties except Jackson, Jennings, and Lawrence. Great! I'm in Jennings.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IND has some 10" amounts in the zones down toward I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The 18z Scam has started it's Southward adjustment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM= yikes. Ugh. I am done watching computer models for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The 18z Scam has started it's Southward adjustment As some of you guys say, wagons south! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM= yikes. Ugh. I am done watching computer models for the day. Might be smoking cirrus in Marion in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The models really have been horrible. Euro has remained the most consistent for this area at least. Was just looking back at some of the earlier runs today that I missed. The 06z 4km NAM gave us 9" of snow, and the 12z came in with <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Might be smoking cirrus in Marion in the end. I am starting to wonder...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 7-8" total in the LAF zone seems good...fits nicely with my 6-10" call. Euro bringing 0.83" is reassuring. Places to the south and southwest of here could really rock if all goes as planned. Good luck to everyone involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 And at a whopping 9 hours out from the first raindrops, the NAM finally comes into consensus. This is an STL corridor/I-70 special for sure, complete with thundersnow opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The 18z NAM is a nice run for around here....drops nearly a foot... However I'm not putting much merritt in it. I wouldn't mind that track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Roger Smith and Angrysummons choking on some serious FTL with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nope, NCEP choking some FTL on this storm. I'll let your erroneous pronouncements do the talking. And this is just a sampling btw... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2224692 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2225003 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2224483 And whether it ends up being right or wrong, normally I don't have a problem with someone making a call. But the way you phrase your calls as absolute certainties kind of rubs me the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Snow lovers must be at least slightly concerned after the crazy GFS run and then a southward shift with the NAM. Also...IWX had an interesting AFD discussing just how uncertain the forecast is at this point. Nothing is set in stone folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'll let your erroneous pronouncements do the talking. And this is just a sampling btw... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2224692 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2225003 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2224483 And whether it ends up being right or wrong, normally I don't have a problem with someone making a call. But the way you phrase your calls as absolute certainties kind of rubs me the wrong way. He's always been one of the worst, and his trolling is weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 He's always been one of the worst, and his trolling is weak sauce. +1 Gotta Go big or go home with the trolling Angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not everyone has to like each other, but can we keep this crap out of the storm thread? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I mean, let's talk about the rising chances Marion may not see a flake from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I mean, let's talk about the rising chances Marion may not see a flake from this storm. You love me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 good luck to everyone in central/southern IL and IN. I love snow and winter in general, but I won't be sad if this completely misses LOT. You guys down in LAF and other places deserve a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow! Wham bam thank you Nam! Has me at 1.1 qpf all snow and I'm not even under a warning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 DT's 1st call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'll let your erroneous pronouncements do the talking. And this is just a sampling btw... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2224692 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2225003 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39755-late-march-snow-blitz-march-24-25th/?p=2224483 And whether it ends up being right or wrong, normally I don't have a problem with someone making a call. But the way you phrase your calls as absolute certainties kind of rubs me the wrong way. lol.. In all fairness it ain't over til it's over. ...besides everyone does a little troll'n now and then....except me of course ....but if someone twisted my arm and made me troll, I'd probably have to bring up Stebo's love affair with the ggem a couple days back when it was turbo-charged, amped, and driving nw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 18z GFS drops a foot on STL metro. The Hi-res nam drops 15-16 inches along I-70 in STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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