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Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th


cyclone77

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I thought traditional thinking was to use the NAM close in to the event and the GFS for longer term.  Maybe that guidance is out the window.  We will soon be looking at radar and nowcasting.

 

With the way things have been the past couple of winters, I don't know if we should any of them at any time :lol:

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DEC

Mean: 12.9"

High: 19.1"

Low: 6.2"

 

I wouldn't mind that. Isn't the SREF "usually" pretty "good" to use in this timeframe?  I know that none of the models seem to "really good" to use with the way they have been performing lately lol

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It looks like snow is going to be "now casted" up this way.

 

Possibilities for 1-3" around here, possible lake enhancement, and Skilling seems to think around 5" is possible, so we will wait and see.  The good news is, with the weather toward mid week next week, any snowfall isn't going to last long.

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:weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

post-68-0-63569900-1364057084.png

Forget triple, that's like a 5 bunner. Nice to see it so high though as we have some room when it (probably inevitably) comes down.

12z GFS is ugly. I agree with you though that it's suspicious when a model makes that large of a shift.

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HPC not using the 12z GFS at this point...

 

 

 

.DEVELOPING UPR LOW OVER THE LWR MO VALLEY REACHING THE MID-ATLC
BY 25/1800Z...
...STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TRACKING ALONG THE NC/SC COAST...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: THRU 25/1200Z...A 12Z
NAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN BLEND (AVG CONFIDENCE)...THEREAFTER...A 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN BLEND (AVG CONFIDENCE)


A STRONG SHRTWV CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IS
FCST TO TRACK NEWRD REACHING THE OZARKS BY SUN MORNING. MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEG-TILTED WHILE MOVING THRU THE
LWR OH VALLEY/MID-ATLC RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING CLOSED UPR
LOW. THIS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS FCST TO ALLOW A SFC CYCLONE
TO DEEPEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPR LOW CENTER BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. MUCH
VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE
MIGRATING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS BY 25/0000Z. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
NAM...IT COMPARES QUITE FAVORABLY TO THE 00Z RUN THRU 48 HRS WHILE
THE 06Z NAM WAS DECIDEDLY SLOWER. INTERESTINGLY...AT
25/1800Z...THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE NAM ARE IN THE SAME LOCATION
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DE BAY. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN THE NAM
BEFORE MORE PREVALENT WITH THE 12Z NAM BEGIN THE FASTEST IN
EJECTING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z GFS
HAS SHIFTED SLOWER AS THE ENERGY DIVES THRU THE OZARKS ON SUN
MORNING. THEREAFTER...THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS WEAKER AND A BIT TO
THE S OF THE 06Z/00Z RUNS. THIS SHIFT ACTUALLY MAKES A SRN OUTLIER
BY LATE SUN. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE 12Z GFS BECOMES FASTER AND
STILL WEAKER ALOFT WHILE CROSSING THE MID-ATLC AND CONTINUING
OFFSHORE. THIS FASTER NATURE MAKES IT FASTER THAN ANY OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...THE LATEST GFS TRENDED DEEPER AS
THE LOW CROSSES THE OUTER BANKS ON MON MORNING. COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS...THE 12Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST ALOFT AT 24/1200Z WITH A
534-DM HGT CONTOUR ACRS SERN KS WITH THIS STRENGTH DIFFERENCE
CONTINUING ONWARD. FURTHER...THERE ARE ACTUALLY SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN BEING AHEAD OF
THE CLUSTER. BY 25/0000Z...THE 12Z NAM BECOME A BIT SLOWER
ALTHOUGH IT DOES GAIN SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN ITS PARENT DETERMINISTIC RUN. WHILE THE 12Z
NAM HAD BEEN CONSIDERED TOO DEEP...IT BECOMES JOINED BY THE 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPR
LOW ACRS THE OH VALLEY. WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW...THE ENS CLUSTERING IS MUCH BETTER THAN IN THE PAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES. THE CURRENT OUTLIERS ARE THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z
UKMET WHICH ARE DEFINITELY S AND E OF THIS CLUSTER WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO THEIR SLOWER AND FURTHER S 500-MB TROF PROGRESSION AT THIS
TIME. AS THE LOW CENTER PUSHES OFFSHORE...THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TOO
CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE AS ENS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOMETHING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE CURRENT PREFERENCE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE
CLUSTERING OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN THRU 25/12000Z
. THE
TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM HUGGING THE COAST LATER ON REMOVES IT FROM
CONSIDERATION AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLN
THEREAFTER.

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Severe dry air issues with the GFS for LAF and northern Indiana.

Of course, seen this move by the models before, only to correct back northwest. No idea if that'll happen with this one, but late huge moves by a model is kinda questionable to me.

 

Saw that with the last 2 storms and it turned out to be bogus. The only time dry air issues were really realized was that dying/occluding storm the 3rd week of February.

 

Sometimes the models "go nuts" within 24 hours of the event. lol

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The good news is, with the weather toward mid week next week, any snowfall isn't going to last long.

Such an abnormal trip for us - I hope this has staying power myself. We won't get anything up here tomorrow but our wooded areas are still holding solid with a base of ice beneath. A lot better than muddy trails. We had a gorgeous late afternoon walk on the pack Thursday evening. Even some ice fishing still going. Lovin' it. Loved last year in the 80's too.

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I guess the snow would kind of cool...  This is a bit reminiscent of 1993, where we got 2" of snow on April 1st of that year.  And that was year of the floods along the Mississippi... Not saying there is a correlation....

 

Nonetheless, I am thinking, at least around here, we are going to be "nowcasting" tomorrow.... I would gather at least 1" and as much as 4" for my slice of the area here.  It all depends on whether or not it comes north more, or south....The heavy snow is mighty close, and wouldn't take much of  shift to bring it up this way..

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New Quad Cities update:

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013MORNING 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THE DEEPSOUTH...TIGHT BAROCLINICITY OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH TENNESSEE...ANDA POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE EXITING COLORADO INTO THIS ZONE. IT ISCERTAIN AN INTERESTING IS GOING TO DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT.HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR CWA IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.THE DATA MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE OVERMONTANA...AND THERE IS MINIMAL OR NOW UPPER RIDGING FARTHER EASTOVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...THUS THE IMPRESSIVEENERGY TO THE WEST WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF IOWA. UNFORTUNATELY FORTHOSE WHO WOULD LIKE TO SEE HEAVY QPF...THIS MEANS MOISTURETRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLY WILL BE LIMITED...ANDCOULD BE ONLY COHERENT IN THE SHOT OF SNOW LATER THIS EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE MAY BE FULLY DISCONNECTED FROM A MOISTFEED. THIS MEAN THAT A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED...AND AMOUNTSSHOULD NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
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LSX updates again.  They rode the 00z and 06z NAM and have finally caved to the Euro, well kinda, but are still North of all of the models but the NAM.  The NAM is junk.  The RAP shows the NAM and it's bogus phased in and out solution is junk.  Either way this would be a pretty huge storm for STL.

 

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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