Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Let's do this! I'm pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think we are going to be on the southern side of the gradient here. Not going to be an easy call, trying to decide if I want to take Monday morning off so I can drive my wife to work in the Jeep, in Fishers. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ILX with their mid-morning update...sounds like MAYBE an upgrade soon??? EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AND THE LATEST RAP-13 STILL SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE IN THE EVENING. RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WHILE THE NAM IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COUPLE PERIODS OF GREATER INTEREST...ONE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH THE INITIAL SURGE AND THE OTHER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE UPPER LOW. NAM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WATCH YET...AS WE AWAIT THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 My call is that the U.S. 24 corridor in IN ends up taking the jackpot with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Was hoping for a last minute north shift from the models, but it isn't happening. The 12z NAM and RGEM have even sagged back south just a bit. It's looking like 1-3 inches for my area. The 4-6" surge up into central Iowa shown by the NAM/GFS yesterday was just a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 rgem is a nice hit for the i-70 IN and OH folks. Axis of heaviest is right along and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks like about 3-4" per the Euro for Toledo, about 2-3" per the NAM, and the GFS with 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks like about 3-4" per the Euro for Toledo, about 2-3" per the NAM, and the GFS with 1-2" At this point I wouldn't be surprised with anything. It looks like the sweet spot will definitely be south though. Seems odd to say that when it is nearly April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z GFS takes a huge leap south, takes an axe to totals in the north, adds heavy snow to Arkansas. Even the north half of IL and IN get little to nothing on this run. I'm not sure why it would shift so drastically this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z GFS storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z GFS takes a huge leap south, takes Iowa out of it, adds heavy snow to Arkansas. hell, it takes most of IN and OH out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What the *bleep* is the GFS doing!? ...that throws a HUGE wrench in things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 congrats Kentucky... I might have to dig up that forecast I made a couple of days ago that this would be an Ohio river valley event.... lol probably severely wrong, but ugly trends for those on the northern and western fringes. Ukmet looks like its come south with precip too, especially thru IN. I-70 still looks ok though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can anyone see anything that would cause the GFS to shift so far south all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can anyone see anything that would cause the GFS to shift so far south all of a sudden? maybe DT hacked the ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Skilling just posted this on his FB page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Ukmet is further South as well. The NAM is on lonesome Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 maybe DT hacked the ncep I knew it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can anyone see anything that would cause the GFS to shift so far south all of a sudden? joking aside...the gfs at 00zmonday is really not that much different looking than what the 00z euro had for that timeframe...just a bit more south. The biggest diff I'm seeing is massive cuts in the qpf to the north and west of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's just one run.... EZ everyone. If the other models follow suit then I would start getting worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 joking aside...the gfs at 00zmonday is really not that much different looking than what the 00z euro had for that timeframe...just a bit more south. The biggest diff I'm seeing is massive cuts in the qpf to the north and west of the system Actually, big difference at 500mb. The GFS lost the strong, closed low. It now has a weaker open wave. The Euro has the closed low in addition to it's ensemble mean and the NAM. GFS is the outlier here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 WPC nam talk: THE 12Z NAM BECOMES JOINEDBY THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN WITH THE MOREINTENSE UPR LOW ACRS THE OH VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY...THIS SOMEWHATSLOWER 12Z NAM HAS A LITTLE BIT OF SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSMEAN WHICH IS SLOWER THAN ITS PARENT DETERMINISTIC RUN. WITHREGARD TO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...THE ENS CLUSTERING IS MUCHBETTER THAN IN THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. THE CURRENT OUTLIER ISTHE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS DEFINITELY S AND E OF THIS CLUSTER WHICH ISLIKELY DUE TO ITS SLOWER 500-MB TROF PROGRESSION AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 WPC nam talk: THE 12Z NAM BECOMES JOINEDBY THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN WITH THE MOREINTENSE UPR LOW ACRS THE OH VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY...THIS SOMEWHATSLOWER 12Z NAM HAS A LITTLE BIT OF SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSMEAN WHICH IS SLOWER THAN ITS PARENT DETERMINISTIC RUN. WITHREGARD TO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...THE ENS CLUSTERING IS MUCHBETTER THAN IN THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. THE CURRENT OUTLIER ISTHE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS DEFINITELY S AND E OF THIS CLUSTER WHICH ISLIKELY DUE TO ITS SLOWER 500-MB TROF PROGRESSION AT THIS TIME. Will be interesting to see what they think about this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is on something...hell of a shift for a storm that is only about 36 hours from starting. Lets see what the king and it's ensembles say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Will be interesting to see what they think about this run of the GFS. and the uk which also came south a bit. There's definitely a concensus trend....big question is whether its a last minute blip that corrects back north or it's for real. I've seen models pull this kind of hiccup/crap leading up to a storm in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Severe dry air issues with the GFS for LAF and northern Indiana. Of course, seen this move by the models before, only to correct back northwest. No idea if that'll happen with this one, but late huge moves by a model is kinda questionable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Severe dry air issues with the GFS for LAF and northern Indiana. Of course, seen this move by the models before, only to correct back northwest. No idea if that'll happen with this one, but late huge moves by a model is kinda questionable to me. Yeah...can't look to much into it in my opinion. Chatting with an IND forecaster now and they are calling this latest run of the GFS an "outlier." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah...can't look to much into it in my opinion. Chatting with an IND forecaster now and they are calling this latest run of the GFS an "outlier." bottome line, the12z euro will tell the tale...if it holds that means the gfs took a crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LSX-WRF is a bit further South as well. The RAP is definitely going to be South of the NAM without some big changes, which we have seen plenty of times with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.