Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6z NAM continues trend, sfc low sitting on the IN/OH border at 48hr, good snows into northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_066.gif IF the image below is correct i suspect the QPF/snow will end up even further north then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GLCutter25 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Bring that sucker northward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 newest sref absolutely dumps on the Peoria area. what I was thinking was going to be a bad situation may be historical if it verifies around here. the main threat with this storm is going to be the weight of the snow which could bring down branches thus producing isolated power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Screw hole, working towards LAF. Pessimism in 3....2..... Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_066.gif Man that MI-IN/OH brick wall is fierce. That would really be a lousy deal if it ended up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 06z GFS went back south and by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Screw hole, working towards LAF. Pessimism in 3....2..... Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 meanwhile the 06z GFS has LAF sweating the northern edge. My god do these models suck moose balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 nearly a total miss here for me near Peoria per the 6z gfs. nice hit for st. louis. sref is pushing the heavy snow axis a tad more north the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LOTs morning discussion starts off with how much uncertainty there still is with snow totals, and how they don't want to commit to any numbers at this point. Thunder snow a possibility. Would be a sweet way to end winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 KHUF Euro txt SUN 06Z 24-MAR 2.1 -2.4 1013 62 41 0.00 552 542 SUN 12Z 24-MAR 0.2 -2.3 1008 77 100 0.18 547 540 SUN 18Z 24-MAR 0.1 -3.4 1001 78 100 0.31 538 538 MON 00Z 25-MAR -1.3 -8.9 1002 87 100 0.39 530 528 MON 06Z 25-MAR -1.4 -9.1 1007 89 99 0.13 531 526 MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.0 -9.1 1011 87 97 0.05 533 525 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.1 -9.8 1015 65 91 0.02 537 525 TUE 00Z 26-MAR -0.2 -8.9 1018 78 74 0.02 538 524 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -4.3 -9.6 1021 91 60 0.00 540 524 TUE 12Z 26-MAR -7.2 -10.9 1023 91 26 0.00 542 524 Whoaah! KIND Euro SUN 12Z 24-MAR -0.6 -2.2 1009 65 93 0.05 547 540 SUN 18Z 24-MAR -0.7 -3.5 1002 73 100 0.34 540 538 MON 00Z 25-MAR -1.9 -7.2 1000 87 99 0.39 530 530 MON 06Z 25-MAR -2.0 -8.7 1004 90 99 0.20 530 526 MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.9 -8.2 1009 88 97 0.08 532 525 MON 18Z 25-MAR 0.9 -8.8 1013 70 97 0.03 536 526 TUE 00Z 26-MAR -0.7 -8.8 1017 81 74 0.02 538 525 Not even really sweating surface and especially upper level temps in central Indiana in late March. lol, ridiculously awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 euro a shade further north as well. @54hrs on 12z surface low was over TN vs 00z at 42hrs over/near Evansville IN. 500MB low also a bit further north and slightly stronger. looks south to me. edit:unless it's pulling nw at 54 according to your description Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Man that MI-IN/OH brick wall is fierce. That would really be a lousy deal if it ended up like that. Suppressed south in late March is a hard thing to imagine this late i the game. A 6"+ snow would be nice, expecially how it seems so many around us have done well late this winter. I feel the pain of Toledo and surrounding areas. A northern tick of 75 miles would make a huge difference. The good news is that the cold will be around for some time yet. I thought this might be the last but mothernature has different plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Man that MI-IN/OH brick wall is fierce. That would really be a lousy deal if it ended up like that. this set up, (a digging bowling ball), has always been a tenuous set up for us Ohioans. You have dryslot issues with a wound up 500 low, qpf loss when the transfer occurs, and of course if the block weakens too much, then we introduce the wtod. For this to be something really memorable for central Ohio, it requires more than just threading a needle, it requires threading a clogged needle with a cat hair while riding shotgun in a 4wheeler. meh, the good thing is it isn't over til it's over....and you adjust expectations accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 FWIW...TWC cut the 8-12" areas out of their forecast. Going with a stripe of 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 But TWC's forecast confuses me, because they have me in the 5-8" area through both Sunday AM and Monday AM; yet everything else I've seen says our heaviest snow should be during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 But TWC's forecast confuses me, because they have me in the 5-8" area through both Sunday AM and Monday AM; yet everything else I've seen says our heaviest snow should be during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. I wouldn't go by their forecast personally, your local NWS forecast would probably be a better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM showing a bullseye of 16-20" in eastern MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I wouldn't go by their forecast personally, your local NWS forecast would probably be a better bet. Yeah, I don't put too much stock into it. NWS is saying 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 New NAM is going to be quite the hit here in CMH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 A stronger surface reflection and a bit south of the 6z NAM but precip does not reach as far north/west as before. Not sure what to believe but I have very little faith in the NCEP models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I like 6-10" with a foot not impossible for LAF. Wild card is convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6z Snow 12z Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 New NAM is going to be quite the hit here in CMH! it's a great move in the right direction....bullseye still looks a bit nw....but a nice hit nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think ILX making a good call right now with 6-9" It cracked me though this morning because in their morning update, they decided to keep the watch because... BUT NEW MODELS A LITTLE LESS ON STRENGTHEN OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THAT REASON...FORECAST AMOUNTS LOWER THEN AND SO WILL STAY WITH WATCH. MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS...6 INCH AREA SOUTH OF EL PASO TO FAIRVIEW LINE...AND NORTH OF A ELFFINGHAM TO MARSHALL LINE. MAX 7-8 INCH AREA POSSIBLE CENTERED ON TAYLORVILLE TO CHRISMAN. ...but then update their Weather Story and WSW text, saying 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Tough call in my backyard as look to be on far northern fringe. Favorable diurnal timing should help. I'll up to 2 to 4. 6 to 10 LAF and okk... 4 to 7 in Lima. Let it snow! And then please warm up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Tough call in my backyard as look to be on far northern fringe. Favorable diurnal timing should help. I'll up to 2 to 4. 6 to 10 LAF and okk... 4 to 7 in Lima. Let it snow! And then please warm up... Long range GFS does seem to indicate spring will arrive in April with stormy conditions. I'll take this 2-4 inches predicted up here in Elkhart as a finale to the winter season and then I am ready for spring as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I like 6-10" with a foot not impossible for LAF. Wild card is convection. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Having trouble finding many negatives in this setup. The transfer would have to happen obnoxiously early to be a severe hindrance around here, which looks very unlikely. One of the only bad things is the daytime onset but the damage from melting/compaction should not get out of hand with heavy rates and temps trickling down as the storm progresses. Possible convective snow is just another reason for optimism. Really starting to like the chances of 8+ for LAF. Go for a new record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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