Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th

[Minnesota Meso]

I think all of you know how to find the euro surface map on instant weather maps, if you take a look at 48 hr inland low and the low off the Carolina coast you can see the transfer is no where close to happening.  As a matter of fact  12-6 hrs before, the model is showing heavy precip from the coastal low being fed into the inland low.  The model absolutely clocks south central IL and central IN.  I have been waiting for a model to show that precip connection.

[snowlover2]

I think all of you know how to find the euro surface map on instant weather maps, if you take a look at 48 hr inland low and the low off the Carolina coast you can see the transfer is no where close to happening.  As a matter of fact  12-6 hrs before, the model is showing heavy precip from the coastal low being fed into the inland low.  The model absolutely clocks south central IL and central IN.  I have been waiting for a model to show that precip connection.

I'm guessing a good chunk of the western half of Ohio as well?

[Thundersnow12]

ARR/ORD went from nothing on the 12z run to about .30" liquid this run.

[Minnesota Meso]

I'm guessing a good chunk of the western half of Ohio as well?

 

Not as much, but yes

[Snowman99]

Ok wunderground isn't updating euro for me. Can someone give me output or at least qpf for st Louis? Thanks

[LanceJA91]

Ready to ride this beast!

[Harry]

I'm guessing a good chunk of the western half of Ohio as well?

 

No.. From say Dayton on west ( north/south ) is about the same as 12z while some QPF was lost further east. Biggest gain was from S.IN back to St. Louis and or between the river/I70 from near Ohio border on west to St. Louis.

 

Not as much, but yes

 

Really? maps i use showed the same for far western Ohio with some losses to the east of say Dayton.

 

ARR/ORD went from nothing on the 12z run to about .30" liquid this run.

 

Yeah the .50+ line is over or perhaps now just north of LAF and now north of Ft Wayne as well. The .25+ line now well into the first row of counties in S.MI back across the IL/WI line back into IA. The .10+ line now runs from near just north of MKE/Grand Rapids to Port Huron.

[Minnesota Meso]

I know there are some in this sub forum that are truly GEM haters, but since it's upgrade it has preformed much better, it still has in my opinion to large of precip field both by width and depth and amounts so you may have to cut back on those by about 20%.  At times it has also suffered from convective feedback issues, and when you see that you have to adjust the surface low a bit further north than what the model shows.  Having said all that I would give the GEM a A with this system so far.  Followed by the GFS with a B and the Euro with a C.  The Euro was way to late to the party but once it got there it is probably the one to dance with.

 

If you go back to page 4 of this thread post 126 and 131 you can see what I posted there.  I have been quiet on this thread, even though I read it often, because my thoughts never wavered, based primarily on the GEM

[Minnesota Meso]

@ HARRY,  the surface low is stronger when deformations set up over IL and IN and as the surface low moves into OH it weakens and picks up forward speed.

[chuckster2013]

So I may still be in the game down here, 50 miles due west of Cincy in SE Indiana?

[Harry]

GGEM is relentless. 12z run drives a low overtop EVV at 991mb, at 84 hours.

 

 

yep pretty wild.  96 hrs it has a low over Indy and another one popping in the southern midatlantic.   Driving rainstorm here...maybe a quick changeover but considering it's a transfer it would probably dryslot to flurries.

 

glad it's the ggem showing it and not the euro.

 

 

12z GGEM snow map for the lolz

 

3:21 12z GGEM Snow.gif

 

 

I know there are some in this sub forum that are truly GEM haters, but since it's upgrade it has preformed much better, it still has in my opinion to large of precip field both by width and depth and amounts so you may have to cut back on those by about 20%.  At times it has also suffered from convective feedback issues, and when you see that you have to adjust the surface low a bit further north than what the model shows.  Having said all that I would give the GEM a A with this system so far.  Followed by the GFS with a B and the Euro with a C.  The Euro was way to late to the party but once it got there it is probably the one to dance with.

 

If you go back to page 4 of this thread post 126 and 131 you can see what I posted there.  I have been quiet on this thread, even though I read it often, because my thoughts never wavered, based primarily on the GEM

 

See above. may wanna re-think that statement considering the 00z run looked nothing like that and is now the furthest south of all models.

 

Every model has done shifts south and north with this one.

 

Not saying tonights 00z GEM will be wrong either. Just pointing out they have all basically had the same adjustments over the past few days.

[Hoosier]

Having trouble finding many negatives in this setup. The transfer would have to happen obnoxiously early to be a severe hindrance around here, which looks very unlikely. One of the only bad things is the daytime onset but the damage from melting/compaction should not get out of hand with heavy rates and temps trickling down as the storm progresses. Possible convective snow is just another reason for optimism. Really starting to like the chances of 8+ for LAF.

[Harry]

@ HARRY,  the surface low is stronger when deformations set up over IL and IN and as the surface low moves into OH it weakens and picks up forward speed.

 

Yep and the 500mb low is slightly stronger on this run as well.

[Minnesota Meso]

So I may still be in the game down here, 50 miles due west of Cincy in SE Indiana?

 

it may start out as rain, but it should turn over to snow in far SE IN

[chuckster2013]

I guess not...

[CIWeather]

Anyone want to take a guess as to how much areas along I-72 in Illinois get?

[LanceJA91]

Minnesota is 50 or 60 miles directly west of Indy a good spot atm?

[Thundersnow12]

Having trouble finding many negatives in this setup. The transfer would have to happen obnoxiously early to be a severe hindrance around here, which looks very unlikely. One of the only bad things is the daytime onset but the damage from melting/compaction should not get out of hand with heavy rates and temps trickling down as the storm progresses. Possible convective snow is just another reason for optimism. Really starting to like the chances of 8+ for LAF.

 

Gino was really liking the thundersnow potential

 

"The lapse rates are just insane, I could see this being the biggest "thundersnow outbreak" in IL since the Groundhog Day Blizzard. It's unreal to see 700-300mb lapse rates in excess of 8C/KM"

 

"I worry b/c it's a complex situation with the new upper low developing to the SE of the mature one and then you get this fujiwara-ing effect before the new upper low essentially absorbs the old one. My confidence in the models handling that complex of an interaction perfectly is not high"

[CIWeather]

Gino was really liking the thundersnow potential

 

"The lapse rates are just insane, I could see this being the biggest "thundersnow outbreak" in IL since the Groundhog Day Blizzard. It's unreal to see 700-300mb lapse rates in excess of 8C/KM"

 

"I worry b/c it's a complex situation with the new upper low developing to the SE of the mature one and then you get this fujiwara-ing effect before the new upper low essentially absorbs the old one. My confidence in the models handling that complex of an interaction perfectly is not high"

 

Is he saying the thundersnow potential could be higher/more widespread because of the bolded part? Or that that would make it less of a chance?

[Minnesota Meso]

Having trouble finding many negatives in this setup. The transfer would have to happen obnoxiously early to be a severe hindrance around here, which looks very unlikely. One of the only bad things is the daytime onset but the damage from melting/compaction should not get out of hand with heavy rates and temps trickling down as the storm progresses. Possible convective snow is just another reason for optimism. Really starting to like the chances of 8+ for LAF.

 

When I combine what I see with the Euro, and strong UVV's from the GFS from H95 up through H7  I really do agree with the convective part. Just don't know where yet.

 

[Minnesota Meso]

Minnesota is 50 or 60 miles directly west of Indy a good spot atm?

 

More 50 miles south of Indy, but this early, that's akin to splitting hairs.

[chuckster2013]

Heh, I'm

supposed to deliver pizza Sunday night in Edinburgh, IN. which is just SE of Indy. Should be fun... maybe not

[LanceJA91]

KHUF Euro txt

 

SUN 06Z 24-MAR 2.1 -2.4 1013 62 41 0.00 552 542
SUN 12Z 24-MAR 0.2 -2.3 1008 77 100 0.18 547 540
SUN 18Z 24-MAR 0.1 -3.4 1001 78 100 0.31 538 538
MON 00Z 25-MAR -1.3 -8.9 1002 87 100 0.39 530 528
MON 06Z 25-MAR -1.4 -9.1 1007 89 99 0.13 531 526
MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.0 -9.1 1011 87 97 0.05 533 525
MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.1 -9.8 1015 65 91 0.02 537 525
TUE 00Z 26-MAR -0.2 -8.9 1018 78 74 0.02 538 524
TUE 06Z 26-MAR -4.3 -9.6 1021 91 60 0.00 540 524
TUE 12Z 26-MAR -7.2 -10.9 1023 91 26 0.00 542 524

 

Whoaah!

[Thundersnow12]

Is he saying the thundersnow potential could be higher/more widespread because of the bolded part? Or that that would make it less of a chance?

 

just talking about the setup in general

[CIWeather]

just talkinga bout the setup in general

 

Ahh okay. I thought maybe that comment went along with the thundersnow potential as well.  I would like to see some.  The only time I've ever seen any was during the Groundhog Day Blizzard.  Was an awesome experience.

[LanceJA91]

KIND Euro

 

SUN 12Z 24-MAR -0.6 -2.2 1009 65 93 0.05 547 540
SUN 18Z 24-MAR -0.7 -3.5 1002 73 100 0.34 540 538
MON 00Z 25-MAR -1.9 -7.2 1000 87 99 0.39 530 530
MON 06Z 25-MAR -2.0 -8.7 1004 90 99 0.20 530 526
MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.9 -8.2 1009 88 97 0.08 532 525
MON 18Z 25-MAR 0.9 -8.8 1013 70 97 0.03 536 526
TUE 00Z 26-MAR -0.7 -8.8 1017 81 74 0.02 538 525

[The_Global_Warmer]

Snowman- the euro drops 7-9 inches over the immediate metro in STL.

[LanceJA91]

Ahh okay. I thought maybe that comment went along with the thundersnow potential as well.  I would like to see some.  The only time I've ever seen any was during the Groundhog Day Blizzard.  Was an awesome experience.

 

I have never witnessed thundersnow. Shoot i have never seen an 10+ snowstorm in my memory. Lots of 6's,7's,8's and less. So i would love if this comes to pass as advertised the past few days!

[Harry]

euro ensembles have as well shifted north a lil bit.

[CIWeather]

ILX sticking with watch..not sure exactly which models they are talking about to support their thinking...

 

 

 

FORECAST ISSUE TODAY IS THE WINTER STORM TO EFFECT REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z UPPER AIR AND PROFILER DATA DEPICTS UPPER LOW AREA OVER THE MT-ID-WY REGION WITH NEXT JET MAX DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO OR-NV. 850-925 MB DATA SHOWS MOISTURE OVER WESTERN GULF AREA PRIMED ALREADY PRIMED TO MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTANT IN STRENGTHENING OF UPPER LOW CENTER AND MOVEMENT TO CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE...MAJOR SNOW AREA DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH OF LOW-INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY 24/18Z OVER SOUTHERN IL BORDER...THEN TRACKING EASTWARD OVER OH RIVER. THE RESULT IS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...BEGINNING AROUND 24/06Z...WITH HEAVIEST THROUGH DAY SUNDAY AND LINGERING IN THE EAST SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE STACKED LOW CENTER MOVES ENOUGH TO THE EAST. NAM AND GFS PRETTY SIMILAR IN STORM TRACK...BUT NEW MODELS A LITTLE LESS ON STRENGTHEN OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THAT REASON...FORECAST AMOUNTS LOWER THEN AND SO WILL STAY WITH WATCH. MAIN HEAVY SNOW TO BE WITH APPROACH AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW THROUGH DAY SUNDAY. MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS...6 INCH AREA SOUTH OF EL PASO TO FAIRVIEW LINE...AND NORTH OF A ELFFINGHAM TO MARSHALL LINE. MAX 7-8 INCH AREA POSSIBLE CENTERED ON TAYLORVILLE TO CHRISMAN.