michsnowfreak Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just catching up and saw this post. Mike Ryan pointed out in his disco yesterday that it will be REALLY rare for IND: THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO DAYS AFTER MARCH 24 IN HISTORY WHERE INDY HAS RECEIVED 4 INCHES OR GREATER. THOSE TWO DAYS ARE 4/9/1897 AND 3/24/1912. STEPPING BACK TO 3 INCHES OR GREATER...THE NUMBER OF DAYS INCREASE ONLY TO 4. POTENTIALLY A REMARKABLE CONCLUSION TO A WINTER THAT DOES NOT YET WANT TO LEAVE. Wow. I apologize for doubting. Indy is not THAT far south from Detroit, didnt realize itd be THAT rare. Since 1881, Detroit has had 38 snowstorms drop 3"+ after March 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'd love to lock this in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ORD- .24" ARR- .35" IKK- .86" LAF- .98" and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM keeps on going back and forth. HIstoric hit, then no historic hit, historic hit, no historic hit....... it seems the nceps are having issue handling the whole transfer deal. The globals have much cleaner solutions. Even the big breaks and jackpots in the precip shield that the nam and gfs keep screwing with aren't as evident with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'd love to lock this in...ImageUploadedByTapatalk1364007014.898180.jpg lol...if i squint i can see the tiny green dot over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 To bad its likely to wet on qpf thus cut the snow amounts by a third or so. My guess is the other models hold serve. The interaction between the energy and the seasonal change will give the models fits on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'd love to lock this in... 25 miles SE would get most of the central IN crew too. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Fixed 25 miles SE NW would get most of the central IN SE MI crew too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ORD- .24" ARR- .35" IKK- .86" LAF- .98" and still snowing. 1.18" run total for LAF and the heaviest waits until around/after 00z Monday aka after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 To bad its likely to wet on qpf thus cut the snow amounts by a third or so. My guess is the other models hold serve. The interaction between the energy and the seasonal change will give the models fits on this. My hunch is the whole QPF field is off. RARE is the day snow does not make it up to atleast I94 in southern MI with the surface low and a closed off UL tracking north of the river across Indiana to Dayton/Columbus/Near Cleveland. Being it is Spring ( more dynamics to work with ) i wont doubt higher QPF just the placement. Ofcourse this is the NAM we are discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 My hunch is the whole QPF field is off. RARE is the day snow does not make it up to atleast I94 in southern MI with the surface low and a closed off UL tracking north of the river across Indiana to Dayton/Columbus/Near Cleveland. Being it is Spring ( more dynamics to work with ) i wont doubt higher QPF just the placement. Ofcourse this is the NAM we are discussing. the whole thing is strange....even the rgem looks like the low pulls northwest between 36 and 48 hrs and becomes stacked under the ULL. Looking at the surface maps you'd expect that a lot of places in IN and OH would be warming enough for mixing problems but the 850s crash as the low moves north.... If nothing else this will be interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 DGZ depth increases to about 150 mb Sunday night/Monday morning here on the 00z NAM, which combined with modest nocturnal cooling supports the idea of ratios trending better as the storm progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 the whole thing is strange....even the rgem looks like the low pulls northwest between 36 and 48 hrs and becomes stacked under the ULL. Looking at the surface maps you'd expect that a lot of places in IN and OH would be warming enough for mixing problems but the 850s crash as the low moves north.... If nothing else this will be interesting to watch unfold. It closes off at 500mb and that is one way to pull the surface low towards the nnw/nw or heck even west ( will only go so far west/nw etc though because it becomes basically attached to the 500mb low) and one of the best examples of this would be Jan 78. Has been others in recent times as well but not nearly as strong and thus a bit more forgotten. Usually after closing off the warmer air gets shoved to the south/east and or in some cases it ends up wrapping to the north/nw of the storm ( near/south of storm is colder ) and thus see Nov 1950 if i recall right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 lol @ NAM showing 8" for the QC. Gonna continue to ride the consistent Euro and roll with 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The GFS looks more sane............. It's not to far from the NAM solution at all. EDIT: I will say you don't see the 11 and 12 inch lollipops, but that's just being a bit to nit picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 my choice of models from tonights salad bar is the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 my choice of models from tonights salad bar is the Ukie The nam H5 depiction is a bit silly. But the other models are starting to come around to how quickly this deepens in the OV. It is a bit silly but I doubt the vort max splits like the nam has then re-phases later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 my choice of models from tonights salad bar is the Ukie I'd imagine with how far south/east the UKIE usually is, this is a good sign for areas north of I-70 in Western OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Chad posted this on his blog. 4th should read March 26, 1913 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Chad posted this on his blog. 4th should read March 26, 1913 6.0" on April 26th is pretty impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6.0" on April 26th is pretty impressive! I take it you missed the part where I said that it should say March 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I was just commenting on a post that Izzi had on FB and he seems concerned with widespread thundersnow with this. and i agree with him. he says large area of lapse rates of 8c/km or higher. that is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I take it you missed the part where I said that it should say March 26th. Oh.. Well 6.5 on April 18th is pretty impressive as well. Have only had one such event here that late/later which was that freak May 9th snowstorm back in the 1920s which dumped 6-12+ from here on up to Lansing/Thumb etc. Came close in late April 1967 with 6 but that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I was just commenting on a post that Izzi had on FB and he seems concerned with widespread thundersnow with this. and i agree with him. he says large area of lapse rates of 8c/km or higher. that is unreal. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Central Illinois looks like it will take a beating on this one. Funny enough, I'm flying through Kansas City tomorrow, but should get out of there before the snow sets in. Everyone who wins out with this should enjoy winter's last dance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Oh.. Well 6.5 on April 18th is pretty impressive as well. Have only had one such event here that late/later which was that freak May 9th snowstorm back in the 1920s which dumped 6-12+ from here on up to Lansing/Thumb etc. Came close in late April 1967 with 6 but that is it. Yes it is. Highs were well into the 40s for that 1926 event so I'm guessing it was mostly an overnight thing. It must've melted pretty quickly as snow depth at measurement time was only a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ECMWF with a 994mb low in North Central KY just south of Cincy... hard to tell the exact track at this second. Will edit it some more details in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 euro a shade further north as well. @54hrs on 12z surface low was over TN vs 00z at 42hrs over/near Evansville IN. 500MB low also a bit further north and slightly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ECMWF with a 994mb low in North Central KY just south of Cincy... hard to tell the exact track at this second. Will edit it some more details in a sec. Yeah pretty decent shift north, and ~ 2 mb deeper than last night's run too. Not totally unexpected though given the UKMET did roughly the same tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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