B-Rent Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Anyone got a 18Z NAM snowfall map for ****s and giggles? You're not in the bullseye Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm surprised you're not in pessimist mode. Maybe it's still too early. Early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Over I'm surprised you're not in pessimist mode. Maybe it's still too early. That'll kick in when the first raindrop hits his tongue. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Mike Ryan (IND) with another great AFD today. Got me kinda tingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Better than previous runs for CLE: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.0 -4.7 1002 78 100 0.03 537 535 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.6 -5.8 1001 92 98 0.25 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.2 -5.9 1005 83 98 0.10 534 530 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.1 -6.0 1010 93 98 0.04 537 529 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.4 -6.2 1013 93 93 0.02 538 528 euro actually looked pretty good for cmh on the wxunderground site. Looked like a pretty solid hit across central OH. Not sure how good those graphics are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 And now the 18z GFS takes the sfc low into southeast MO and then just north of PAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 And now the 18z GFS takes the sfc low into southeast MO and then just north of PAH. yup...then due east....takes a trip down the ohio river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like the GFS is transferring to 2 lows. one hell of a cluster, although it finally consolidates a coastal off the delmarva by 72 hrs. With the slp evolution being this much of a cluster, I have zero confidence in how the precip field is being forecasted on these models. Probably gonna be some big surprises and big disappointments ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I saw that 996 around S IL and thought this was going to paint a big Chicago run, but then it just flew to the east post haste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 one hell of a cluster, although it finally consolidates a coastal off the delmarva by 72 hrs. With the slp evolution being this much of a cluster, I have zero confidence in how the precip field is being forecasted on these models. Probably gonna be some big surprises and big disappointments ahead. IWX mentioned that the transfer could be modeled too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Skilling on FB Wintry storm bearing down on Midwest Sunday and Sunday night. Storm watches hoisted downstate. Storm track critical in deciding how much snow will fall in Chicago. Our in-house average of all models and other snow forecast techniques yields an average of 4.8" centered on Chicago with amounts tapering off as one heads north north and increasing south. This is a very early read on this system and the accumulation numbers shouldn't be read as carved in stone at this point and ar...e subject to adjustment between now and the storm's onset Sunday when scattered morning flurries are expected to build into steadier snowfall. Lake effect snow showers may well linger into Monday and Monday night lakeside counties--so this is a system to watch. A more southerly track could yet divert snowfall to the south of Chicago--but there's enough evidence supporting sticking snow in the city and surrounding areas that it can't, at this point, be ignored. Storm probability figures out of WPC (the Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center in Maryland put odds of this snow reaching winter storm criteria in Chicago at between 50 and 60%--a fairly high assessment of risk this far ahead of the event. Low-level wind trajectories and a destabilizing 18-deg temp drop through the lowest mile of the atmosphere support lake enhancement of the storm's "system" snow. The March sun went to work on the cold air mass Friday sending highs to 40 O'Hare, 41 Midway & 33 Lakefront. The normal March 22 high: 49-deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Can't speak for Tim but I remember saying that it transitions into hoping for a fluke. To put in perspective how rare this is, Chad Evans came up with a list of late season snowstorms for LAF since 1821 (the early years are from newspaper/diary accounts). There have only been 4 storms to drop 6+ inches after March 20 (3/23/1836, 3/26/1913, 4/18/1926, 3/25-26/2002). Just catching up and saw this post. Mike Ryan pointed out in his disco yesterday that it will be REALLY rare for IND: THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO DAYS AFTER MARCH 24 IN HISTORY WHERE INDY HAS RECEIVED 4 INCHES OR GREATER. THOSE TWO DAYS ARE 4/9/1897 AND 3/24/1912. STEPPING BACK TO 3 INCHES OR GREATER...THE NUMBER OF DAYS INCREASE ONLY TO 4. POTENTIALLY A REMARKABLE CONCLUSION TO A WINTER THAT DOES NOT YET WANT TO LEAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 DT says 2-4 for LAF and Kokomo. Sorry guys. Maybe next year. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 18zgfsensemblep12048.gif Appears to match this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 DT says 2-4 for LAF and Kokomo. Sorry guys. Maybe next year. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Um, I guess I need to slant stick for my 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 DT says 2-4 for LAF and Kokomo. Sorry guys. Maybe next year. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Best news I've heard all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Biggest storm in a couple of years and this thread is dead. Go figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Biggest storm in a couple of years and this thread is dead. Go figure... That's because I'm watching the NAM and I'm not even sure what to think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 someone needs to reboot the nam... check it out after 36 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 sfc low makes a run at CLE on this run, further north track going from PAH-Louisville-Cincy and much slower transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That's one hell of a run. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow @ the NAM. Looks like some good snow makes it up into southern Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 sfc low makes a run at CLE on this run lol that's noth'n...after 36hrs over north central TN, it starts to head west, nw up to southern IN.... kinda takes a midwest city tour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 that's noth'n...after 36hrs over north central TN, it starts to head west, nw up to southern IN.... kinda takes a midwest city tour. Def juiced this run. Similar to its 06Z run earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Gimme gimme gimme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Late in the winter, wet sloppy snow. Spring mode has come. yep, no need to break out the shovels for anyone.... this isn't March'08....the shelf life on this snow will be about the same as unwrapped raw meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM is a historic hit for LAF. There are no 10" snows on record this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow @ the NAM. Looks like some good snow makes it up into southern Chicagoland. sfc low actually stays north of the river, moves through southern IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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