Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th

[The_Global_Warmer]

STL -  LSX updated again:

 

[B-Rent]

Have to admit I'm starting to get excited. Given the magnitude of the cold air aloft and falling precip, really think we will be able to keep temps AOB freezing for the bulk of the event. I think we have a good chance to reach 6"

I have no reason to argue. Funny thing is I've given the thermals little attention, as if it's mid January, lol. Only thing would be ratios. IND thinks 7:1 to 8:1, IWX thinking 10:1 to 15:1.

Mmmmmmm shovelling 6" of compacted 7:1 snow in March. Ill call my plow guy.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

[Hoosier]

I have no reason to argue. Funny thing is I've given the thermals little attention, as if it's mid January, lol. Only thing would be ratios. IND thinks 7:1 to 8:1, IWX thinking 10:1 to 15:1.

I could see ratios being pretty low in the southern IND cwa but probably not here. Precip onset looks like it will be during the daylight hours but models are suggesting mod/heavy rates which would help with accumulation efficiency. Being on the western fringe of the eastern time zone, it's gonna be kinda strange seeing it ripping snow with daylight lasting until like 8 PM.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looks like the Euro is South.

[Jrad08]

[cyclone77]

4km NAM crushes STL with almost a foot of snow through 60hrs.  Looks like it's gonna be great for Indy/LAF too. 

[Chicago WX]

Euro south is no good for LAF.

[OHweather]

12z Euro still tracking primary up to near I-70 in central OH

 

[buckeye]

Looks like the Euro is South.

 

this is the strangest storm evolution I can recall.   At 48 hrs the plymouth maps show a broad 1002 low centered on the AL/GA border with a secondary begining to pop off the carolina coast.  At 72 hrs theres a 998 double low, one over cmh and the other off the midatlantic coast.   So basically everything moved due north?   Also where the hell is the WTOD???    You'd think we'd be torching with a surface map like that and not a single model shows it, except the gfs comes closest.

[Chicago WX]

Hmm, that doesn't look south to me.

[OHweather]

this is the strangest storm evolution I can recall.   At 48 hrs the plymouth maps show a broad 1002 low centered on the AL/GA border with a secondary begining to pop off the carolina coast.  At 72 hrs theres a 998 double low, one over cmh and the other off the midatlantic coast.   So basically everything moved due north?   Also where the hell is the WTOD???    You'd think we'd be torching with a surface map like that and not a single model shows it, except the gfs comes closest.

I think what's helping portions of OH is the models occlude the primary pretty quickly. At 72 hours the Euro has a closed 500mb low near the OH/KY/WV tri-state area, with a surface reflection all the way up to near Columbus. Seems strange, but it's been shown off and on for a little while now.

[WestMichigan]

this is the strangest storm evolution I can recall.   At 48 hrs the plymouth maps show a broad 1002 low centered on the AL/GA border with a secondary begining to pop off the carolina coast.  At 72 hrs theres a 998 double low, one over cmh and the other off the midatlantic coast.   So basically everything moved due north?   Also where the hell is the WTOD???    You'd think we'd be torching with a surface map like that and not a single model shows it, except the gfs comes closest.

February 2009 was another example of the maps saying warm in CMH, but the WTOD was held at bay.  It does happen once in a while.

[buckeye]

I think what's helping portions of OH is the models occlude the primary pretty quickly. At 72 hours the Euro has a closed 500mb low near the OH/KY/WV tri-state area, with a surface reflection all the way up to near Columbus. Seems strange, but it's been shown off and on for a little while now.

 

so that low over cmh isn't necessarily the primary as much as it is a surface reflection left under the ULL??

[OHweather]

so that low over cmh isn't necessarily the primary as much as it is a surface reflection left under the ULL??

I should have clarified. The primary's surface reflection is what is over CMH at 72 hours.

[buckeye]

I should have clarified. The primary's surface reflection is what is over CMH at 72 hours.

 

....and I haven't seen the panels between 48 and 72, so for all I know, it could be flash torching us afterall.

[Hoosier]

IND issues winter storm watch for 5-9"

[OHweather]

....and I haven't seen the panels between 48 and 72, so for all I know, it could be flash torching us afterall.

SUN 18Z 24-MAR   5.1    -1.0    1007      45      46    0.00     546     540    MON 00Z 25-MAR   1.5    -3.1    1002      80     100    0.17     541     539    MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.7    -4.0     998      95      71    0.34     533     535    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -4.5     998      99      82    0.10     529     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.6    1004      83      80    0.04     534     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.4    -6.5    1011      89      99    0.05     537     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.2    -6.4    1014      90      99    0.04     539     528    TUE 12Z 26-MAR  -1.3    -7.0    1017      91      98    0.02     539     526    TUE 18Z 26-MAR   1.4    -7.1    1019      74      99    0.03     540     525    

Starts as rain but then changes over to snow, with token snow showers floating around for another day and a half afterwards.

[The_Global_Warmer]

At hour 51 Euro has the deformation zone heading right up 44 in MO into STL.

[buckeye]

SUN 18Z 24-MAR   5.1    -1.0    1007      45      46    0.00     546     540    MON 00Z 25-MAR   1.5    -3.1    1002      80     100    0.17     541     539    MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.7    -4.0     998      95      71    0.34     533     535    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -4.5     998      99      82    0.10     529     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.6    1004      83      80    0.04     534     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.4    -6.5    1011      89      99    0.05     537     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.2    -6.4    1014      90      99    0.04     539     528    TUE 12Z 26-MAR  -1.3    -7.0    1017      91      98    0.02     539     526    TUE 18Z 26-MAR   1.4    -7.1    1019      74      99    0.03     540     525    

Starts as rain but then changes over to snow, with token snow showers floating around for another day and a half afterwards.

 

mostly a sunday overnighter too....looks a lot later start time than I was thinking

[Hoosier]

IND's range looks solid. I'm thinking something like 8-10:1 ratios early on and then trending toward 12:1 or slightly better toward the end which gives an event average of 10-12:1 for LAF. There's not much of a DGZ early on.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Euro smokes STL.

 

Then really explodes the storm after it passes here.

[hm8]

csnavywx gonna get it good

[hawkeye_wx]

Euro is weaker for Iowa, so it's now the Americans vs the Int'ls.  Each run of models we want clarity but don't get any, so it's on to 00z again.

[cyclone77]

Euro remains relatively dry for eastern Iowa and northern IL.  First and probably last call for here and the QC is 1-2".  Since the rates will be so low and much of it falls during the day this will likely be a non-event here. 

[Trent]

SUN 18Z 24-MAR   5.1    -1.0    1007      45      46    0.00     546     540    
MON 00Z 25-MAR   1.5    -3.1    1002      80     100    0.17     541     539    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.7    -4.0     998      95      71    0.34     533     535    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -4.5     998      99      82    0.10     529     531    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.6    1004      83      80    0.04     534     531    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.4    -6.5    1011      89      99    0.05     537     528    
TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.2    -6.4    1014      90      99    0.04     539     528    
TUE 12Z 26-MAR  -1.3    -7.0    1017      91      98    0.02     539     526    
TUE 18Z 26-MAR   1.4    -7.1    1019      74      99    0.03     540     525

Starts as rain but then changes over to snow, with token snow showers floating around for another day and a half afterwards.

How far north does the snow swath make it in Ohio?

[Chicago WX]

IND's range looks solid. I'm thinking something like 8-10:1 ratios early on and then trending toward 12:1 or slightly better toward the end which gives an event average of 10-12:1 for LAF. There's not much of a DGZ early on.

First call?

[Jrad08]

First call?

I think NWS IND hits it pretty good with it's 5-9 call....

[Chicago WX]

I think NWS IND hits it pretty good with it's 5-9 call....

I agree.

[Hoosier]

First call?

I like the 6-8" range for now.

[michsnowfreak]

and the laf boys said their snowstorm chances were done a month ago lol