Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Early educated guess for FWA and my backyard...1-3". My prediction for the March 5th storm was 4-6" and I ended up with a foot. Hopefully a similar level of fail happens this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GFS looking more NAM'ish with the fujiwara interaction between the Montana vort and the energy rounding the base of the trough. There is a big increase is snow for Iowa vs recent runs.FS Hmmm. Not bad all things considered. Anyone have a NAM weenie map for comparison sake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GFS looking more NAM'ish with the fujiwara interaction between the Montana vort and the energy rounding the base of the trough. There is a big increase is snow for Iowa vs recent runs.FS Can you educate me as to what a fujiwara interaction is?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think this is looking more and more like a glorified clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Can you educate me as to what a fujiwara interaction is?? When two separate low centers sort of rotate around each other. Or at least try to. The Montana low is close enough to "draw" the more southern low more northward, and the southern low sort of draws the northern low southward as they interact. Hope that makes sense lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 When two separate low centers sort of rotate around each other. Or at least try to. The Montana low is close enough to "draw" the more southern low more northward, and the southern low sort of draws the northern low southward as they interact. Hope that makes sense lol. Makes sense...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah. I am stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That has got to be one of the slowest transfers I've ever seen after killing off the primary. I don't think I've ever actually seen a solution like that before actually happen, so I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 First time we agree on something. This system however it plays out should end up pretty stout once it phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like the 12z GFS and NAM are in pretty agreement, in the end, for LAF. Hope this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like the 12z GFS and NAM are in pretty agreement, in the end, for LAF. Hope this happens. I love your location for this. Seems like no matter the model bias with this storm, you guys end up in the sweet spot either way. Gonna be a big one. Skilling posted this on fb awhile ago. Never heard of this particular model before. Supposedly it's some sort of super-ensemble that incorporates all the major models, including the GEM and Euro. EDIT: Here's the link to the model page for anyone who's interested... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 First time we agree on something. This system however it plays out should end up pretty stout once it phases. Being on the north side if town versus the south side should make a difference.... No idea where you are though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Since the snow is going to be of the cement type, at least the winds wont be strong, else there would be widespread power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GGEM is south, hits central/southern Missouri and then southern IL/IN/OH, drops off as you go north from I-70. Basically, the NAM/GFS show good interaction between the Montana vort and the energy rounding the base of the trough, which pulls the storm more northward while the GEM has less interaction so the storm dives farther southeast and little precip gets pulled up to the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GGEM way south, hits southern Missouri and up the Ohio river, drops off as you go north from I-70. Basically, the NAM/GFS show good interaction between the Montana vort and the energy rounding the base of the trough, which pulls the storm northward, while the GEM has little interaction so the storm simply dives southeast into the southern plains and then shoots east. Interesting development. GGEM has def been in the northern camp quite a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Interesting development. GGEM has def been in the northern camp quite a while now. It's a horrible model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's a horrible model.. I think at this range the NAM is even more reliable than the GEM. It really is awful. I feel guilty for even looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I like what I've seen on the 12z so far...the gfs appears to have crapped the bed wrt cmh, but according to text soundings it's all snow except for a bit of sleet at the onset. I'm not sure a true concensus will be reached until tomorrow. The jackpot band with this event isn't that wide...lots of heartbreak/jackpot potential somewhere between the lakes and the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Skilling likes the idea of the heaviest snow south of I-80, but the southern suburbs should do pretty well (high end advisory). 5-6" if LEhS happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 DT is dry humping the NAM like it's going out of style. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 lol...no doubt I saw that coming. Meanwhile the gfs stabs him in the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GFS ensemble mean went a little north. First call here. 2.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Local MET here going with 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I like what I've seen on the 12z so far...the gfs appears to have crapped the bed wrt cmh, but according to text soundings it's all snow except for a bit of sleet at the onset. I'm not sure a true concensus will be reached until tomorrow. The jackpot band with this event isn't that wide...lots of heartbreak/jackpot potential somewhere between the lakes and the river. I agree, the key is being closest to the moisture pumping up from the south while remaining all frozen for the enitre event. I personally like my chances here right on I-70 in Dayton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I love your location for this. Seems like no matter the model bias with this storm, you guys end up in the sweet spot either way. Gonna be a big one. Skilling posted this on fb awhile ago. Never heard of this particular model before. Supposedly it's some sort of super-ensemble that incorporates all the major models, including the GEM and Euro. EDIT: Here's the link to the model page for anyone who's interested... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ ....isn't that just the SREF...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like the 12z GFS and NAM are in pretty agreement, in the end, for LAF. Hope this happens. Have to admit I'm starting to get excited. Given the magnitude of the cold air aloft and falling precip, really think we will be able to keep temps AOB freezing for the bulk of the event. I think we have a good chance to reach 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 ....isn't that just the SREF...? Yeah I think it is. Skilling pulled one on us. He referenced this model page when he wrote this on fb... "Having said all that, a good starting point with recent storms has been the NCEP super-ensemble, which brings together fcsts off the GFS, the UKMET, the ECMWF, the Navy NOGAPS, Environment Canada's CMC and the Weather Service's SREF & Air Force models generate the forecast I've posted here. It suggests at least sections of the Chi area could see a significant late season snow Sunday--in places as much as 5-6", particularly in southern sections, with wind and potential lake-enhancement of the precip." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Have to admit I'm starting to get excited. Given the magnitude of the cold air aloft and falling precip, really think we will be able to keep temps AOB freezing for the bulk of the event. I think we have a good chance to reach 6" I have no reason to argue. Funny thing is I've given the thermals little attention, as if it's mid January, lol. Only thing would be ratios. IND thinks 7:1 to 8:1, IWX thinking 10:1 to 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like, according to the NWS page, I sit in an area with the potential for 4" or so... depending on lake enhancement. Sorry to be the party pooper, but I really hope it goes farther south, and leaves us with nothing, or next to nothing. However, I don't think that is going to be the case........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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