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Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th


cyclone77

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that moist shadow of the WTOD looms close here....so what else is new, (story of this entire winter).  When the nceps pulled north last night I figured it was over, but the ggem coming south,and  the euro holding, (heard ens. were flatter than op), makes me think we're still 50/50 here in cmh for a nice event.   

 

Normally a storm making it to southern OH is the kiss of death for CMH, and yet models are being extremely generous with keeping the 850s at bay.  GGEM is a great example.  Not sure why this is except it must have to do with the early transfer taking place, enough to hit the brakes on the warm air??

 

Another negative for us here is the snow starts Sunday morning and is mostly a daytime event...not sure the unusual cold leading up to the storm will offset any of that.   

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Verbatim the heavier stuff cuts SE of us there. I don't like being that close to the sweet spot this far out though, still 36ish hours until the event begins, I hope we've seen the end of the N shift. For all my moaning earlier about wishing for seasonable weather, I'm getting pretty excited for this system. 

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Verbatim the heavier stuff cuts SE of us there. I don't like being that close to the sweet spot this far out though, still 36ish hours until the event begins, I hope we've seen the end of the N shift. For all my moaning earlier about wishing for seasonable weather, I'm getting pretty excited for this system.

Still plenty of snow on this run for Kokomo.

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6z NAM coming in more amped, stronger wave, more ridging out ahead of it, further north.

 

5-8" for northeast IL

 

LAF buried

 

attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif

 

14-16" for LAF. Ridiculous. 

 

Looks like the snow map from the 2007 V Day blizzard. Which of course, is the #3 CIPS analog at 60 hours based off the 0z GFS. 

 

#1 analog is March 10-12, 2000...which was a good enough storm for LAF.

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg=

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12z RGEM takes a bit of a jump south... definitely south of the NAM.

 

the rgem has a 998 low over ne MS at 48hrs.   The 00z gem had a 1002 low over east central MS same timeframe.  I would think this indicates the gem may come in further north and amped.   Although they still look the same at 500 so hopefully, (for my sake), it's a stronger low that doesn't necessarily translate into further north.

 

add:   you are right, it is south of the NAM, but it's also much stronger

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12z GFS looking more NAM'ish with the fujiwara interaction between the Montana vort and the energy rounding the base of the trough.  There is a big increase is snow for Iowa vs recent runs.USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_090_zps4e3ea15d.gifFS

 

I would definitely take this.  The Euro has been pretty dry for us though, and it's always hard to argue against it.  If the Euro doesn't come in any wetter/further north with the 12z I'll probably be leaning towards a 1-2" type scenario for both of us. 

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