Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I think I'm more worried about moisture than temps. I do think we have a better chance of seeing some accumulating snow or sleet with this system than we did all of the winter. I still haven't had any accumulating sleet or snow since February 2011 so if I get a dusting out of this I will be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 No doubt. That 54 high that NWS has for me has huge bust potential tomorrow! I don't think I'll even hit my forecast high of 50 today.Solar noon was at 1:42pm today so temps shouldn't be rising much more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Steve, the climate has given me the finger for years now, lol. Kind of like your kind offer the let me sit in the jeep..when it's parked, with no keys in it The last time I had a good sled was in 05. I have hopes though that a warming earth will lead to anomalous extremes, and I'll get a hammering of the sleet kind any year now And the big sign I'm looking for is a cold spring, short summer, and cold fall, with accumulations of ip/sn in Nov. Then we'll be cooking, and the finger will be forgotten, lol. Meanwhile, it's only 50, so the rain won't have to do so much cooling to get me what I want....as long as the clouds don't come in too early. T LOL!!! We lost our brakes last weekend so a good thing you didn't drive it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Birmingham has given up: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL1259 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013ALZ011-014-017-018-020-211900-/O.CAN.KBMX.WW.Y.0004.130322T0500Z-130322T1100Z/MARION-WINSTON-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...DOUBLE SPRINGS...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...CENTRE1259 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS CANCELLED THEWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...ANDSNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AIRTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEEZING ALONG WITHWARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRYPRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS WITH MINIMALIMPACTS EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Surprised the dewpoint is so low here. Only 7 degrees at this hour. Maybe that will play a factor with evaporative cooling tomorrow? The TD is colder than what the GFS per MeteoStar is showing, This could play as either a positive (more evap. cooling) or a negative (drier making it harder to get much precip. to ground, especially since we're dealing with a drying WNW 500 mb flow). Normally, I wouldn't be that excited about having much of a chance at getting something measurable in the ATL area with that kind of flow. However, the unusual thing is that the 12Z GFS has N Ark. getting as much as ~1.6" and far N MS getting as much as 1" of liquid equiv. and all of that is aiming in the general direction of ATL-AHN. Only so much of that will dry up. I'd think that there really could still be as much as ~0.25-30"still remaining once it makes it to GA. If so, there could easily be something sticking s temp.'s would fall more than are progged. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'm in. That even has snow for me. That would be better than anything else we had in the winter. But I am just ready to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 For the Atlanta-Athens corridor, here's is what I'm looking at for tomorrow regarding the 12Z models: - The 12Z GFS has a QPF max. of 1.6" in N AR and 1.0" in far N MS for the period ending 8 PM Friday on a ESE trajectory. This pretty much aims toward ATL-AHN and gives them ~0.20-0.25" by 8 PM Friday. - But the 12Z Euro has the QPF max much further south (1" in S AR) and only 0.50" in far N MS. This is on a SE trajectory instead of ESE and totally misses N GA with precip through the crucial still cold enough hours up til 8 PM on Friday. The furthest north of 0.05" QPF is on a line from Ft. Benning to Dustin's home of Tifton and the max in SW Ga is only 0.10"!! (Aside: where the heck is Dustin??) - So, the 12Z Euro's precip. area throgh 7 PM Friday is centered nearly 200 miles south of the 12Z GFS' area (and is much lighter), a HUGE difference!! So, which will be closer to what verifies? Will it be near the middle? If you're in Atlanta and want wintry precip. you'd better hope the GFS is close and the Euro is way off of its rocker. Edit: I suggest looking in Arkansas this afternoon to see where the heaviest precip. looks like it is going to verify and how much looks to fall. If in N GA. I'd root for N AR not S AR and over 1". Edit #2: The 2 meter temp.'s as of 8 PM Friday in the ATL-AHN corridor are about 10 F warmer on the 12Z Euro than the12Z GFS (50 F vs. 40 F). This is largely due to there being no precip. on the Euro vs. steady precip. since noon on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The TD is colder than what the GFS per MeteoStar is showing, This could play as either a positive (more evap. cooling) or a negative (drier making it harder to get much precip. to ground, especially since we're dealing with a drying WNW 500 mb flow). Normally, I wouldn't be that excited about having much of a chance at getting something measurable in the ATL area with that kind of flow. However, the unusual thing is that the 12Z GFS has N Ark. getting as much as ~1.6" and far N MS getting as much as 1" of liquid equiv. and all of that is aiming in the general direction of ATL-AHN. Only so much of that will dry up. I'd think that there really could still be as much as ~0.25-30"still remaining once it makes it to GA. If so, there could easily be something sticking s temp.'s would fall more than are progged. We'll see. Certainly hope that precip can stay heavy when heading from Arkansas. Would love to see that with dewpoints so low. Not sure why NWS thinks it will be anywhere close to 54 here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Right now the heaviest is in north Arkansas. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Certainly hope that precip can stay heavy when heading from Arkansas. Would love to see that with dewpoints so low. Not sure why NWS thinks it will be anywhere close to 54 here? One good early indicator that could give a hint of which 12Z model will likely be closer may be what is now faling over W MO. Whereas the Euro (both the 12Z and 0Z runs) has virtually no measurable QPF falling within 100 miles south of KC through 8 PM today, the GFS (at least the last four runs) has shown 0.05-0.10" from KC south 100 miles. By looking at recent radar loops and looking at hourly ground based reports, one can see that they're getting some measurable precip. (snow) in much of the area. Though it has been light, that hopefully is an indicator that the GFS is more in tune with reality as far as precip. is concerned. If so, that may give the edge to the GFS over the Euro, which would probably be better for N GA wintry precip. chances tomorrow. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 One good early indicator that could give a hint of which 12Z model will likely be closer may be what is now faling over W MO. Whereas the Euro (both the 12Z and 0Z runs) has virtually no measurable QPF falling within 100 miles south of KC through 8 PM today, the GFS (at least the last four runs) has shown 0.05-0.10" from KC south 100 miles. By looking at recent radar loops and looking at hourly ground based reports, one can see that they're getting some measurable precip. (snow) in much of the area. Though it has been light, that hopefully is an indicator that the GFS is more in tune with reality as far as precip. is concerned. If so, that may give the edge to the GFS over the Euro, which would probably be better for N GA wintry precip. chances tomorrow. We'll see! Still hanging on your every word, Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 One good early indicator that could give a hint of which 12Z model will likely be closer may be what is now faling over W MO. Whereas the Euro (both the 12Z and 0Z runs) has virtually no measurable QPF falling within 100 miles south of KC through 8 PM today, the GFS (at least the last four runs) has shown 0.05-0.10" from KC south 100 miles. By looking at recent radar loops and looking at hourly ground based reports, one can see that they're getting some measurable precip. (snow) in much of the area. Though it has been light, that hopefully is an indicator that the GFS is more in tune with reality as far as precip. is concerned. If so, that may give the edge to the GFS over the Euro, which would probably be better for N GA wintry precip. chances tomorrow. We'll see! Would love for a surprise here for a change. Today was quite chilly with the wind and we busted by at least 5 degrees colder which was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like the NWS is thinking a possible MAJOR winter event for tonight and tomorrow morning for parts of Georgia. And yes anything over a trace of snow is major in Georgia this time of year. Also, temps are forecast to be 31 tonight which could cause some major travel problems in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Right now the heaviest is in north Arkansas. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php I'm honing in on West Plains (WP), MO, and Mountain Home (MH), AR, for the period 2PM-8PM EDT today. Whereas the 12Z Euro has only ~0.05" for WP and 0.07" for MH, the 12Z GFS has much more: ~0.25" for WP and ~0.33" for MH for 2 PM to 8 PM EDT today. So, I think that what these two cities receive during 2-8 PM EDT (1-7 PM CDT) today will be another good hint regarding whether the 12Z GFS or the 12Z Euro is closer to reality. Based on this, I believe that N GA wintry precip. lovers should root for the heavier precip. scenario of the GFS this afternoon/evening in those two cities. At 7 PM CDT, I'll be checking these two stations to see what their six hourly totals (1-7 PM CDT) end up to be. Edit: WP is in far south-central MO while MH is to the SW of WP in far north-central AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Light snow in Greenville NC today. Just to let every one know. Maybe some more flurries on the way. currently 45 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 So is everyone excited for cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Light snow in Greenville NC today. Just to let every one know. Maybe some more flurries on the way. currently 45 degrees That is impossible! Everyone knows that it can't snow in late March in the daytime with temps in the 40s, a warm ground, and the sun angle as high as it is, especially in eastern North Carolina. Don't try to come in here and fool us with your tales of light snow and flurries. We're not going to fall for it anymore!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Ok, CrossRoads, the moles assure me they won't let much snow muck up my nice sleet So, it's ptype I'm most interested in...and no, rain will simply not do, not now. In fact I'm not altogether happy about having rain for the weekend. With a very low -ao, I believe rain should be completely off the table, lol. Tell you what, my man, if you pull this off, I think it will supersede your Savannah ploy, and vault you beyond the elites to the very heights of Olympus. Not much pressure on you and the Moles from here T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 That is impossible! Everyone knows that it can't snow in late March in the daytime with temps in the 40s, a warm ground, and the sun angle as high as it is, especially in eastern North Carolina. Don't try to come in here and fool us with your tales of light snow and flurries. We're not going to fall for it anymore!! Some light snow in Rocky Mount, NC today too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 410 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 for the following GA counties: POLK-PAULDING-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-HEARD-COWETA- FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-LAMAR- ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET UP TO HALF INCH...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED AREAS. AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET AND SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT MAY SEE SOME ICY SPOTS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THIS AREA...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AROUND 7 AM AND THEN ALL TO RAIN AFTER 10 AM. ANY FROZEN ACCUMULATION SHOULD THEN MELT. LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SLOW DOWN AND INCREASE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU IN CASE YOU NEED TO STOP ON ICY ROADWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 That is impossible! Everyone knows that it can't snow in late March in the daytime with temps in the 40s, a warm ground, and the sun angle as high as it is, especially in eastern North Carolina. Don't try to come in here and fool us with your tales of light snow and flurries. We're not going to fall for it anymore!! THE SKYS HAVE HEALED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Ok, CrossRoads, the moles assure me they won't let much snow muck up my nice sleet So, it's ptype I'm most interested in...and no, rain will simply not do, not now. In fact I'm not altogether happy about having rain for the weekend. With a very low -ao, I believe rain should be completely off the table, lol. Tell you what, my man, if you pull this off, I think it will supersede your Savannah ploy, and vault you beyond the elites to the very heights of Olympus. Not much pressure on you and the Moles from here T It has now started snowing with vis. of only 1/4 mile at West Plains, MO. Tell the moles there may actually be a correlation between how much snow West Plains gets today and how much IP you get tomorrow. It seems to me Goofy is winning the battle so far vs. the Good Doctor. Nothing against doctors, but we should want Goofy to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 So is everyone excited for cold rain? so if the storm trends south of nc say middle to southern sc want a lot of people be in the snow on the northwest side of the storm. is the storm not going to make it that far south? plus I thought temps would be colder than what is showing. The NWS is being real conservative right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Well, the Doc just seems to be good at No, most times, so I don't revere it like some do, because it's easy to say no in the south. I could start the Mole Model and just say no way, over and over, and be pretty famous, pretty soon. Atlanta tv mets have made a good living doing it since I was a wee tyke, lol. It bothered me to see GmfBurns showing ip/sn done here because you usually get your surprises when they say not. So, I'm just going to read your thoughts, Larry, and watch the skies, and let that be my model watching for tonight, and the morning. P'tree city has me down for an inch of something frozen, but I think I'll have to put out frozen boards to be able to catch it, lol. Once again dew points are our friend, when solid cold is wanting, as it usually is, even in Jan or Feb. when rain is around. 850's are up a bit though..don't usually get much frozen with 850's over 2...so it could easily be 15 minutes of sleet ahead of the rain. That's a popular winter time show around here T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Well, the Doc just seems to be good at No, most times, so I don't revere it like some do, because it's easy to say no in the south. I could start the Mole Model and just say no way, over and over, and be pretty famous, pretty soon. Atlanta tv mets have made a good living doing it since I was a wee tyke, lol. It bothered me to see GmfBurns showing ip/sn done here because you usually get your surprises when they say not. So, I'm just going to read your thoughts, Larry, and watch the skies, and let that be my model watching for tonight, and the morning. P'tree city has me down for an inch of something frozen, but I think I'll have to put out frozen boards to be able to catch it, lol. Once again dew points are our friend, when solid cold is wanting, as it usually is, even in Jan or Feb. when rain is around. 850's are up a bit though..don't usually get much frozen with 850's over 2...so it could easily be 15 minutes of sleet ahead of the rain. That's a popular winter time show around here T There are good trends in the 18Z Goofy vs. the 12Z with temp.'s now progged to hold in the 30's from just north of your area (you're near 40) and north all day long vs. low 40's on the 12Z and upper 40's on the 0Z. By the way, a +2 to +2.5 C 850 is near perfect for IP. Also, those 850's will be colder if heavier precip gets in earlier due to very dry air/evap. cooling at 850. Time for my cold walk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 HPC inline with the GFS it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 18z GFS a little bit colder with 850s. They stay on the NC Virginia line for most of the event. Can it get any colder? We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 18z GFS a little bit colder with 850s. They stay on the NC Virginia line for most of the event. Can it get any colder? We'll see... We need a 50-75 mile SE shift, not sure we are going to get it, looks like the NC/VA border will be the battleground. This looks very simliar to the March 6th event but the airmass is a lot colder but the 500mb low is alot weaker, atleast so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We need a 50-75 mile SE shift, not sure we are going to get it, looks like the NC/VA border will be the battleground. This looks very simliar to the March 6th event but the airmass is a lot colder but the 500mb low is alot weaker, atleast so far. Not sure how the weather knows where the NC/VA boarder is, but it sure does. I knows. Every single winter, it knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not sure how the weather knows where the NC/VA boarder is, but it sure does. I knows. Every single winter, it knows. That, and I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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