superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The GFS shifted south again with the 18z run. It might actually work out for the Mid-Atlantic this run. It actually looks somewhat similar to the Euro's 12z solution from what I can gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The GFS shifted south again with the 18z run. It might actually work out for the Mid-Atlantic this run. It actually looks somewhat similar to the Euro's 12z solution from what I can gather. Always works our for MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Today's AO of -5.632 is the lowest daily AO reading since the -5.821 of 12/21/2009! Prior lower AO's episodes were 1/18-19/1985, 1/12-17/1977, 3/4-6/1970, and 11/18/1959. So, the current very low AO is a very rare event in that only five other events since 1950 were lower and no other events between 3/7 and 11/17, inclusive, since 1950 were lower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I'm under a Winter Storm Watch now, didn't see that coming. MEG is predicting 1-3 inches for me, but I'm really worried about temperatures... FWIW, MEG's criteria for a warning is 3+ Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Today's AO of -5.632 is the lowest daily AO reading since the -5.821 of 12/21/2009! Prior lower AO's episodes were 1/18-19/1985, 1/12-17/1977, 3/4-6/1970, and 11/18/1959. So, the current very low AO is a very rare event in that only five other events since 1950 were lower and no other events between 3/7 and 11/17, inclusive, since 1950 were lower! With a block that strong in place, you get the feeling something unusual is in store for someone. Might not be down here, but all the signs point to something out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The GFS shifted south again with the 18z run. It might actually work out for the Mid-Atlantic this run. It actually looks somewhat similar to the Euro's 12z solution from what I can gather. Mid Atlantic NO ! Further south to include NC, N GA, Upstate and E. Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 With the potential where is everybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 With the potential where is everybody? Burned and butt hurt. Winter will have to work her way back into our trust circle. We won't make it easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 A high of around 12 degrees tomorrow...one of the coldest days of winter...err spring! .THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... .REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 35 TO 40 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO. .FRIDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Burned and butt hurt. Winter will have to work her way back into our trust circle. We won't make it easy. True. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 A high of around 12 degrees tomorrow...one of the coldest days of winter...err spring! .THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... .REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 35 TO 40 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO. .FRIDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE MORNING. Does anyone live up there? Is there a ski resort? You seem borderline obsessed with a small patch of earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does anyone live up there? Is there a ski resort? You seem borderline obsessed with a small patch of earth.i would like to live up there!dont know how the job market is up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does anyone live up there? Is there a ski resort? You seem borderline obsessed with a small patch of earth. He works up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 i would like to live up there!dont know how the job market is up there?it depends, what line of work are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does anyone live up there? Is there a ski resort? You seem borderline obsessed with a small patch of earth. 5946ft is the summit. No one is up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 With the potential where is everybody? It's March 21, aside from wishcasting, there isn't (realistic) potential for those outside the mountains. That being said, according to FFC, I may see a few flakes tomorrow night. Stranger things have happened I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 it depends, what line of work are you in?manufacturing,landscaping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The GFS shifted south again with the 18z run. It might actually work out for the Mid-Atlantic this run. It actually looks somewhat similar to the Euro's 12z solution from what I can gather. Too bad this is the southeast. Today's AO of -5.632 is the lowest daily AO reading since the -5.821 of 12/21/2009! Prior lower AO's episodes were 1/18-19/1985, 1/12-17/1977, 3/4-6/1970, and 11/18/1959. So, the current very low AO is a very rare event in that only five other events since 1950 were lower and no other events between 3/7 and 11/17, inclusive, since 1950 were lower! Great. So, where's the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Great. So, where's the snow? In the wee hours there's a possibility it will be within 1 mile of you. Straight up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 In the wee hours there's a possibility it will be within 1 mile of you. Straight up. Per the NAM brick will miss out, but my parent's place will cash in on some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Chicago gets cold and dry this run of the GFS. Bye, bye ferocious blizzard of GFSs' past. The GFS goes boom for the WV/VA/MD after popping a low off Morehead City at hr 93. EDIT: Perhaps "boom" is not the right word, but it's a decent hit, probably more so at higher elevations than the I-95-corridor-proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS is definitely trending south... question is will it trend south enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS is definitely trending south... question is will it trend south enough? Well, at this rate the GFS will have the low crossing Key West by verification date. (A joke, of course) GFS clown, for those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 RAH.....THE FINAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST MEANINGFUL ONE FOR CENTRAL NC THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES ARGUES FOR A MAIN STORM TRACK TO BE SUPPRESSED CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN UP ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE EC/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER... THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STORM TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY... BECOMING PRIMARY STORM (MILLER TYPE B SOLUTION) DEVELOPING OFF THE NC OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATTER SCENARIO WOULD BE A WARMER SOLUTION. THE EC SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS MORE OF A "MILLER TYPE A" STORM TRACK IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FROM THE GULF TO OFF THE SC COAST... TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM POTENTIAL GOING FROM WESTERN NC INTO VA. HOWEVER... ONE LACKING FEATURE FOR A LATE SEASON KNOCK OUT BLOW WINTER STORM MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH (AT LEAST 1020-1025 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO DELIVER CLASSICAL CAD INTO CENTRAL NC OVER PA/NY REGION). THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST DRY/COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE EVENT... BUT EITHER QUICKLY RETREATING PER THE GFS (WITH LACK OF PARENT SURFACE HIGH LOCKED IN PLACE)... OR SLOWLY RETREATING PER THE EC MODELS. HOWEVER... THE FAVORED STORM TRACK TO OUR S-E SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW (NAMELY IN ELEVATED AREAS OF WESTERN NC AND VA). THE CURRENT PATTERN OF A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO/NAO AND AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK CERTAINLY SUGGESTS WINTER STORM POTENTIAL IN THE COLD SEASON. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW LATE MARCH... THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS. CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL TAKE A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH (IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION) TO ALLOW ANY SUCH STORM TO DELIVER ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY COLD RAIN IN LATE MARCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD RAIN EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH THE FAVORED STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC. AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE IN QUESTION FOR A WINTER STORM. THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDINESS FRI-FRI NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY... MAINLY SOUTH. HIGHS 40-35 WITH UPPER 30S NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 RPM shows a major snow event for Atlanta tomorrow night/Friday. How reliable is the RPM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 RAH.....THE FINAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST MEANINGFUL ONE FOR CENTRAL NC THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES ARGUES FOR A MAIN STORM TRACK TO BE SUPPRESSED CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN UP ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE EC/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER... THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STORM TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY... BECOMING PRIMARY STORM (MILLER TYPE B SOLUTION) DEVELOPING OFF THE NC OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATTER SCENARIO WOULD BE A WARMER SOLUTION. THE EC SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS MORE OF A "MILLER TYPE A" STORM TRACK IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FROM THE GULF TO OFF THE SC COAST... TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM POTENTIAL GOING FROM WESTERN NC INTO VA. HOWEVER... ONE LACKING FEATURE FOR A LATE SEASON KNOCK OUT BLOW WINTER STORM MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH (AT LEAST 1020-1025 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO DELIVER CLASSICAL CAD INTO CENTRAL NC OVER PA/NY REGION). THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST DRY/COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE EVENT... BUT EITHER QUICKLY RETREATING PER THE GFS (WITH LACK OF PARENT SURFACE HIGH LOCKED IN PLACE)... OR SLOWLY RETREATING PER THE EC MODELS. HOWEVER... THE FAVORED STORM TRACK TO OUR S-E SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW (NAMELY IN ELEVATED AREAS OF WESTERN NC AND VA). THE CURRENT PATTERN OF A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO/NAO AND AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK CERTAINLY SUGGESTS WINTER STORM POTENTIAL IN THE COLD SEASON. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW LATE MARCH... THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS. CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL TAKE A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH (IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION) TO ALLOW ANY SUCH STORM TO DELIVER ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY COLD RAIN IN LATE MARCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD RAIN EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH THE FAVORED STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC. AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE IN QUESTION FOR A WINTER STORM. THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDINESS FRI-FRI NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY... MAINLY SOUTH. HIGHS 40-35 WITH UPPER 30S NORTH. Key phrase. CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL TAKE A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH (IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION) TO ALLOW ANY SUCH STORM TO DELIVER ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY COLD RAIN IN LATE MARCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD RAIN EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH THE FAVORED STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 RPM shows a major snow event for Atlanta tomorrow night/Friday. How reliable is the RPM ? Not very at all, it is the Nam's ugly stepchild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS shifted to an Apps runner almost with a strong LP moving from Louisiana to SE Kentucky. I have a feeling it's going to keep shifting S/W with the strong blocking we have going. It never made much sense imo when it was driving this thing from Texas to Central Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 RPM shows a major snow event for Atlanta tomorrow night/Friday. How reliable is the RPM ? That's one they use in house and why Burns had sleet over me and snow from Jonesboro up to Gainesville somewhere. It'd be nice if it trumped everyone, lol. I'll stay up to see...don't want to miss the big sleet It's been looking like it could for days, but it'll take all of Larry's -ao anomaly to work it's majic. It's the odd things that make weather so much fun...not the same old, same old, like's out there in two months. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Shift the 540 line 1-2 counties south on the GFS and boom for northern foothills / north-west Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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