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March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

 Just some hope? You get slammed with 4-5" of snow 3/24-5! If I were in High Point, I'd have mucho hope right now with the king of models giving me a major snow. I wish ATL was showing 25% of what it shows for you. ;)

 

I just hate that all the other modeling is going against us right now, but we'll see.  I will ride the Euro until the wheels fall off. :)

 

I notice that the GGEM ensembles are very far south and basically look like a Miller A with presumably a major hit for NC (ensemble mean shows 0.75-1" of QPF here that would be predominantly, if not all, snow which is pretty bullish for and ensemble mean six days out).  The op is a Miller B, though.  Of course, the GGEM has struggled mightily this year.  Despite its verification scores, it seems to have trouble with East Coast Storms.

 

Yes, I just brought up the GGEM ensemble mean.  That makes me a  :weenie: .

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I just hate that all the other modeling is going against us right now, but we'll see.  I will ride the Euro until the wheels fall off. :)

 

I notice that the GGEM ensembles are very far south and basically look like a Miller A with presumably a major hit for NC (ensemble mean shows 0.75-1" of QPF here that would be predominantly, if not all, snow which is pretty bullish for and ensemble mean six days out).  The op is a Miller B, though.  Of course, the GGEM has struggled mightily this year.  Despite its verification scores, it seems to have trouble with East Coast Storms.

 

Yes, I just brought up the GGEM ensemble mean.  That makes me a  :weenie: .

 

Looking at the ENS mean it does go much further south but it also is not cold enough...though a CAD signal is there. Alan's maps can be a little confusing. SV ENS maps basically show a cold rain for everyone outside of the mountains. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Raleigh aftn disco....this one's for you Cold Rain

 

THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN COLD RAIN CHANCES BY LATE IN THEWEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE DETAILS NOT TO BE IRONED OUTUNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUGGEST SOME WET SNOW CHANCES IN THE NW PIEDMONT WITH THE HIGHESTCHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD INTO VA/WVA CENTERED ONSUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANDCOLD TEMPS WITH LOWS 30-35 AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SESUN-TUE. -BADGETT
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Raleigh aftn disco....this one's for you Cold Rain

THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN COLD RAIN CHANCES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE DETAILS NOT TO BE IRONED OUT
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST SOME WET SNOW CHANCES IN THE NW PIEDMONT WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD INTO VA/WVA CENTERED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLD TEMPS WITH LOWS 30-35 AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SE
SUN-TUE. -BADGETT

YES! I called Badgett before he released the discussion and asked him to give me some props. :chestbump:

I would love to see a late season snow, but I just don't think it's in the cards this year for most of us. Too much troughing out west.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Looking at the ENS mean it does go much further south but it also is not cold enough...though a CAD signal is there. Alan's maps can be a little confusing. SV ENS maps basically show a cold rain for everyone outside of the mountains. 

 

Allan's maps seemed to show the 850 line south of N NC for most of the run, but as you said it's hard to tell with the limited panels and surface temps could have been really warm.  I don't think the GGEM ensembles are very useful, anyways.  The track appeared to be nice, in any case.

 

The 18z GFS is coming in way different at h5 and it pops a legitimate low off the SC coast (Miller B ).  It still drives the original low into southern Illinois, but it seems to be a pretty big change from its past few runs (not enough to matter for us, but it may be backing away from some of its recent ridiculous solutions).

 

EDIT: Well, then the Atlantic Low drifts OTS while the original low moves towards Ohio and stays strong.  WTF?

 

 

18z GFS

 

vs.

 

12z GFS

 

LOL.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

GSP not biting yet.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELSSEEM TO BE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER AIR REGIME...THE DETAILSOF THE FORECAST STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THEDETAILS FOR OUR AREA. THE BIG PICTURE ESSENTIALLY FEATURES ANEGATIVE NAO OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH KEEPS SUPPLYING SOME FORM OF APOLAR VORTEX ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THISPORTENDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ANDWIDESPREAD PRECIP.THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SOUTHERN U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INRESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW SWINGING SE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THEROCKIES. THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND IS FORECAST TOMOVE TO THE NC COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ISEXPECTED TO BUILD SE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MON INTO TUE.THE COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST INCLUDE THE LIKELYHOOD OF ANIN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING ON SAT WHICH WILL SUPPLY THE AREA WITHCOLDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON A NE WIND. HENCE...SOMEPTYPE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERNFOOTHILLS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. ALSO IN QUESTION ISTHE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT WILL FALL. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCEFAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THE THERMAL FIELDS...BUT MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOPOPS IN THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z GFS. THEUPSHOT IS THAT PRECIP OF VARYING INTENSITIES WILL AFFECT THEAREA FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. USING THE TOP DOWNMETHOD TO GENERATE THE WEATHER PRODUCES SOME PERIODS OF FREEZINGRAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FRINIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BE A COLD RAIN OVERMUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. RIGHT NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACTWINTER EVENT DOES NOT LOOK THAT GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND. DRYER AIR WILLFOLLOW THE LOW BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE...EXCEPTFOR SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE MUCHBLEOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

the way this winter has gone they are going to play it safe until the last minute.  don't quite figure....Looks to me with all the hype the potential is there for a winter event for the weekend  :axe:

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calm_days

calm_days

Posted
Posted

This is one of the times when you can look at the satellite imagery and see why there is not much model consensus.  The systems are all very occluded.  That is what I thought last time also; i guess it is my way of holding on to a specific model that shows good solutions. 

 

I am stepping through the GFS output on this map which also can show the Goddard Earth observation system model...

it really shows that the second Pacific occluded low stays offshore close to where it is now all the way through Sunday.  Looking at the satellite imagery, it is receiving at least some interference from the system west of it.  the system coming onshore right now is moving to the east fairly soundly.  I would be surprised for it to just sit there, although, it may.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

If the cloud deck gets in here Thursday night then you can forget it...the valley here just does not cool off that well...I had to get toasted a number of times when I started to work up here back in 2002 before I bought into it and only been torched the other way on Jan 29, 2010...If it were mid Feb then I would not even be worried about it...this would be a very good set up for here.

Lol, yep there is a definite coolness factor to saying the valley here in Ooltewah just won't cool off enough for snow...rather than saying it just won't get cold enough here around the big mall :)  Now, for the important question...is Ooltewah Cherokee/Creek for Big Mall?  Or something cool like Sleet Valley :)  Tony

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

18z gfs says no. Takes our low through Ohio. Perhaps a NWFE for the mountains following the rainstorm.

 

Yes, it does, though it's a huge change from the 12z, which took it through Chicago and then Michigan, LOL.  H5 was totally different.

 

its the 18z , throw it out ! 0 z will be game on! Wait til you see the DGEX

 

The 18z is about as good as the other runs of the GFS.  There's really no statistically significant difference in their verification scores (even the 06z run is fine).  The problem is that the GFS runs four times per day, which gives it more opportunities to produce ridiculous, outlier runs than the other models which run twice per day.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Solid January Cold for Wednesday night and Thursday:

..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. NORTHWEST

WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 46 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 20 TO

25 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO

35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE

MORNING.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST

WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND

CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS

35 TO 40 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND

CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Solid January Cold for Wednesday night and Thursday:

..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. NORTHWEST

WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 46 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 20 TO

25 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO

35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE

MORNING.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST

WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND

CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS

35 TO 40 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND

CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

Yep down to 25 degrees here already. Looks like March may go out like a lion. Looking forward to some good upslope snow next week for a couple days. How many times do you hear that in late March? Gor to love it!

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Not much talk about the light snow chance Thursday/Friday. 

 

 

Increasingly looking like #snow at least in the air from AR/MO through TN Valley to N Georgia Thu night to Fri night. pic.twitter.com/9tut7dkel8

 

 

Also leaning toward Euro's bigger badder #snow storm farther north Sun-Mon. Details uncertain, but between I-40 and I-70.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted 




WPC:



BASED ON THE



EVER-ROBUST MIDDLE GROUND OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN,



ANTICIPATE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING



COLORADO EARLY DAY 4, WITH A DISJOINTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM



TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. A GOOD CHUNK OF THE 00Z/19



DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE EMPHASIZING THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE,



SPINNING UP A DEEP CYCLONE UP NEAR 40N. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE



GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO THE MULTI-DAY AVERAGES, PUTTING MOST OF THE



DYNAMICS IN THE LEAD WAVE, AND CUTTING OFF THE TRAILING IMPULSE



FROM THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE VIA THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT MORE



PHASING WOULD AFFORD. THE PRONOUNCED SQUASH TO THE FLOW EAST OF



THE MISSISSIPPI FAVORS A MORE SHEARED EVENT, ALONG THE LINES OF



THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE.HOW FAR NORTH A SURFACE LOW FINALLY ORGANIZES ALONG 



THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF REAL ESTATE AFFECTED BY SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.



CISCO







			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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