March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

[DaculaWeather]

Regarding number three...why not use somthing else like Firefox.  I've had zero issues with Firefox.

 

Regarding number one...I 100% agree.  I've had 4 winter storm warnings IMBY this year. LOL

Or Google Chrome. I use Chrome for everything. 

[GaWx]

1) Folks,

 The 12Z Doc is still another run with snow on Fri 3/22. This run has the axis of heaviest snow about 50-75 miles south of the 0Z Doc. It has the following 1"+ amounts per the clown map:

 

-TN: Mem & Chatt. 2-3

- AL: Hunts.: 1

- GA: LaFayette/Dahlonega/Clayton: 1.5; Rome/AHN/GVL 1

- SC: Anderson 1

-NC: Highlands 2

 

 

2) Moto and Steve, thanks for the browser advice.

[Stovepipe]

1) Folks,

 The 12Z Doc is still another run with snow on Fri 3/22. This run has the axis of heaviest snow about 50-75 miles south of the 0Z Doc. It has the following 1"+ amounts per the clown map:

 

-TN: Mem & Chatt. 2-3

- AL: Hunts.: 1

- GA: LaFayette/Dahlonega/Clayton: 1.5; Rome/AHN/GVL 1

- SC: Anderson 1

-NC: Highlands 2

 

 

2) Moto and Steve, thanks for the browser advice.

 

I've not seen the clown map, but the text output doesn't show any snow at all for those areas.  850 temps, surface temps, and thickness not even that close.  The southern mountains might do ok.

[GaWx]

I've not seen the clown map, but the text output doesn't show any snow at all for those areas.  850 temps, surface temps, and thickness not even that close.  The southern mountains might do ok.

 

Stovepipe,

 1) 850's are in the 0 to -2 C range per my output. Thicknesses are near 546 dm. These are cold enough to support snow if there's enough steady precip. Total QPF is near 0.50-0.75" in many of these areas...plenty heavy enough although some of this falls after 850's warm to 0C.

 2) I'd ignore the surface temp.'s on the Euro when there's steady precip. They are almost always quite a bit too warm. It has been this way for years. IF the precip. is heavy enough, there wil be a near isothermal gradient from 850 to the surface...so, barely above to barely below 32...cold enough for snow to stick if it is heavy and steady enough...I don't care it is late March lol.

[tarheelwx]

Looks ok for Sunday/Monday for western nc I believe.

Tw

[burgertime]

12z Euro looked like it would give large amounts to I-40 areas. 

[franklin NCwx]

1) Folks,

The 12Z Doc is still another run with snow on Fri 3/22. This run has the axis of heaviest snow about 50-75 miles south of the 0Z Doc. It has the following 1"+ amounts per the clown map:+1 for mentioning a small town like highlands.

-TN: Mem & Chatt. 2-3

- AL: Hunts.: 1

- GA: LaFayette/Dahlonega/Clayton: 1.5; Rome/AHN/GVL 1

- SC: Anderson 1

-NC: Highlands 2

2) Moto and Steve, thanks for the browser advice.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The 12Z 3/19 Doc, like its predecessors, is giving a 2nd snow, a major snow to some of N NC on Sun.-Mon. 3/24-5 per the clown: 3-5" much of Triangle and Triad. Ashev. gets 2" and Charlotte 1". Also, there may be some CAD related IP/ZR, mainly in WNC.

 Also, Johnson City, TN, gets 3".

 

 So, the 12Z 3/19 Euro has two significant  snows 3/22-25. Who said this thread may need to be closed tonight lol?

[Jon]

Folks,

 The 12Z 3/19 Doc, like its predecessors, is giving a 2nd snow, a major snow to some of N NC on Sun.-Mon. 3/24-5 per the clown: 3-5" much of Triangle and Triad. Ashev. gets 2" and Charlotte 1". Also, there may be some CAD related IP/ZR, mainly in WNC.

 

 So, the 12Z 3/19 Euro has two significant  snows 3/22-25. Who said this thread may need to be closed tonight lol?

Hmm...3-5" for the Triangle? That sounds a little much, is that verbatim or guestimates? Just wondering if it's strictly output.

 

From the free charts it looks like much of the snow is west of the Triangle

[HurricaneTracker]

12z Euro looked like it would give large amounts to I-40 areas. 

 

I-40 west of I-77?

[Stovepipe]

Stovepipe,

 1) 850's are in the 0 to -2 C range per my output. Thicknesses are near 546 dm. These are cold enough to support snow if there's enough steady precip. Total QPF is near 0.50-0.75" in many of these areas...plenty heavy enough although some of this falls after 850's warm to 0C.

 2) I'd ignore the surface temp.'s on the Euro when there's steady precip. They are almost always quite a bit too warm. It has been this way for years. IF the precip. is heavy enough, there wil be a near isothermal gradient from 850 to the surface...so, barely above to barely below 32...cold enough for snow to stick if it is heavy and steady enough...I don't care it is late March lol.

 

Here's what I'm looking at for the Friday event on 12z Euro.

 

(when heaviest precip is falling)

 

Memphis:

850 Temp:  36F

Surface Temp:  38.5F

Thickness:  549

 

Huntsville: 

850 Temp:  33F

Surface Temp:  39F

Thickness:  549

 

Chattanooga:

850 Temp:  32F

Surface Temp:  35F

Thickness:  546

 

Atlanta:

850 Temp:  32.5F

Surface Temp:  39F

Thickness:  549

 

Marginal but possible I guess.  I was just surprised the clown maps were showing 2-3 inches for Memphis and Chattanooga. 

[GaWx]

Hmm...3-5" for the Triangle? That sounds a little much, is that verbatim or guestimates? Just wondering if it's strictly output.

 

From the free charts it looks like much of the snow is west of the Triangle

 

Verbatim per clown maps: 3-3.5" triangle and 4-5" Triad for the 2nd 12Z Euro snowstorm, which would be on 3/24-5.

[Mr Bob]

1) Folks,

 The 12Z Doc is still another run with snow on Fri 3/22. This run has the axis of heaviest snow about 50-75 miles south of the 0Z Doc. It has the following 1"+ amounts per the clown map:

 

-TN: Mem & Chatt. 2-3

- AL: Hunts.: 1

- GA: LaFayette/Dahlonega/Clayton: 1.5; Rome/AHN/GVL 1

- SC: Anderson 1

-NC: Highlands 2

 

 

2) Moto and Steve, thanks for the browser advice.

Northern fringe, marginal temps and middle of the day...I will pass on the 2" here though Monteagle might be another story.  

[Stovepipe]

RDU for second storm:

 

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 18Z 24-MAR   6.4    -1.2    1015      59     100    0.04     559     547    
MON 00Z 25-MAR   2.7    -0.8    1012      95      96    0.26     557     547    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.4    -0.1    1008      98     100    0.24     550     544    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.0    -1.6    1009      94      78    0.23     544     537    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   5.2    -3.5    1013      70      55    0.01     549     538    

[packbacker]

The differences in the GFS and Euro is just crazy, granted it 6 days away but it's worlds apart...To me the Euro makes more sense as we do have strong blocking but just a guess.

 

 

 

 

[DaculaWeather]

Folks,

 The 12Z 3/19 Doc, like its predecessors, is giving a 2nd snow, a major snow to some of N NC on Sun.-Mon. 3/24-5 per the clown: 3-5" much of Triangle and Triad. Ashev. gets 2" and Charlotte 1". Also, there may be some CAD related IP/ZR, mainly in WNC.

 Also, Johnson City, TN, gets 3".

 

 So, the 12Z 3/19 Euro has two significant  snows 3/22-25. Who said this thread may need to be closed tonight lol?

I still feel the mojo Larry. It's just about our last chance so I'm holding out until the bitter end. Bring on my 1" SnowMageddon! 

[burgertime]

I-40 west of I-77?

Sorry yes, west of I-40...even CLT is close to a big hit on the 12z Euro.

[DaculaWeather]

Northern fringe, marginal temps and middle of the day...I will pass on the 2" here though Monteagle might be another story.  

Mr. Bob, how did you get stuck in Ooltewah? I know where it is but... Ooltewah? :-)

[GaWx]

Here's what I'm looking at for the Friday event on 12z Euro.

 

(when heaviest precip is falling)

 

Memphis:

850 Temp:  36F

Surface Temp:  38.5F

Thickness:  549

 

Huntsville: 

850 Temp:  33F

Surface Temp:  39F

Thickness:  549

 

Chattanooga:

850 Temp:  32F

Surface Temp:  35F

Thickness:  546

 

Atlanta:

850 Temp:  32.5F

Surface Temp:  39F

Thickness:  549

 

Marginal but possible I guess.  I was just surprised the clown maps were showing 2-3 inches for Memphis and Chattanooga. 

 

1) Memphis: I mispoke and should have said that they get most of their snow Thu night 3/21 before midnight, when 850's are near or barely below 0 C and ~0.45" of liquid equiv. falls. Subsequently, they get a bunch of rain (~0.60"). So, total QPF ~1.00".

 

2) Chattanooga: 850's ~-1C 12Z on Fri 3/22; warms only to ~-0.50 C at 18Z on Fri, when 0.25" of liquid equiv. has already fallen. A little more falls before 850's rise to above 0C. That's how the 2-3" of snow is produced.

 

3) Please ignore the Euro sfc temp.'s. They are almost always several degrees too warm during steady precip. based on following it for years.

 

Edit: 4) No snow (1"+) shows for Atl on the clown map.

[Mr Bob]

Mr. Bob, how did you get stuck in Ooltewah? I know where it is but... Ooltewah? :-)

 

I am actually in closer to the big mall by I 75 but the name sounds cooler and my kids go to those schools...

[GaWx]

Mr. Bob, how did you get stuck in Ooltewah? I know where it is but... Ooltewah? :-)

 

Lol. I was in Ooltewah for the first time in my life this past weekend. No joke. Stayed at the Hampton Inn...nice moderately priced hotel.

 

Edit: ate at the Provino's south of Eastgate.

[Mr Bob]

1) Memphis: I mispoke and should have said that they get most of their snow Thu night 3/21 before midnight, when 850's are near or barely below 0 C and ~0.45" of liquid equiv. falls. Subsequently, they get a bunch of rain (~0.60"). So, total QPF ~1.00".

 

2) Chattanooga: 850's ~-1C 12Z on Fri 3/22; warms only to ~-0.50 C at 18Z on Fri, when 0.25" of liquid equiv. has already fallen. A little more falls before 850's rise to above 0C. That's how the 2-3" of snow is produced.

 

3) Please ignore the Euro sfc temp.'s. They are almost always several degrees too warm during steady precip. based on following it for years.

I'll take the under and winner can by the beer! While the set up is better for snow here with the Doc showing 35 F and being on the fringe of good precip, I will take a Sierra Nevada Torpedo, please....

[NavarreDon]

GSP not biting yet.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELSSEEM TO BE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER AIR REGIME...THE DETAILSOF THE FORECAST STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THEDETAILS FOR OUR AREA. THE BIG PICTURE ESSENTIALLY FEATURES ANEGATIVE NAO OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH KEEPS SUPPLYING SOME FORM OF APOLAR VORTEX ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THISPORTENDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ANDWIDESPREAD PRECIP.THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SOUTHERN U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INRESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW SWINGING SE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THEROCKIES. THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND IS FORECAST TOMOVE TO THE NC COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ISEXPECTED TO BUILD SE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MON INTO TUE.THE COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST INCLUDE THE LIKELYHOOD OF ANIN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING ON SAT WHICH WILL SUPPLY THE AREA WITHCOLDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON A NE WIND. HENCE...SOMEPTYPE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERNFOOTHILLS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. ALSO IN QUESTION ISTHE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT WILL FALL. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCEFAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THE THERMAL FIELDS...BUT MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOPOPS IN THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z GFS. THEUPSHOT IS THAT PRECIP OF VARYING INTENSITIES WILL AFFECT THEAREA FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. USING THE TOP DOWNMETHOD TO GENERATE THE WEATHER PRODUCES SOME PERIODS OF FREEZINGRAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FRINIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BE A COLD RAIN OVERMUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. RIGHT NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACTWINTER EVENT DOES NOT LOOK THAT GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND. DRYER AIR WILLFOLLOW THE LOW BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE...EXCEPTFOR SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE MUCHBLEOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[GaWx]

I'll take the under and winner can by the beer! While the set up is better for snow here with the Doc showing 35 F and being on the fringe of good precip, I will take a Sierra Nevada Torpedo, please....

 

I can almost guarantee you that the 35 F would be too warm if you were to get 0.30" of liquid equiv. before 850's warm to above 0C. The Doc is notorious for being warm biased at the surface when steady precip. is falling. This model doesn't seem to believe in the idea of isothermal lol.

[superjames1992]

It would appear that the Euro basically screwed over DC by going OTS (a decent snow for late March, but no HECS).

 

The Euro allows me to keep some hope.  We shall see what happens.

[Mr Bob]

I can almost guarantee you that the 35 F will be too warm if you get 0.30" of liquid equiv. before 850's warm to above 0C. The Doc is notorious for being warm biased when steady precip. is falling.

If the cloud deck gets in here Thursday night then you can forget it...the valley here just does not cool off that well...I had to get toasted a number of times when I started to work up here back in 2002 before I bought into it and only been torched the other way on Jan 29, 2010...If it were mid Feb then I would not even be worried about it...this would be a very good set up for here.

[WilkesboroDude]

 

WeatherMatrix

Liked · 3 hours ago 

Under pressure: GFS model showing 1076mb (31.77") high pressure in Greenland tomorrow. World record is only ~1083! Hat Tip: Ron. G. on FB. This is part of the "Blocking Pattern" that will shove winter back into most of the U.S. through early April.

[GaWx]

It would appear that the Euro basically screwed over DC going OTS.

 

The Euro allows me to keep some hope.  We shall see what happens.

 

 Just some hope? You get slammed with 4-5" of snow 3/24-5! If I were in High Point, I'd have mucho hope right now with the king of models giving me a major snow. I wish ATL was showing 25% of what it shows for you.

[DaculaWeather]

 Just some hope? You get slammed with 4-5" of snow 3/24-5! If I were in High Point, I'd have mucho hope right now with the king of models giving me a major snow. I wish ATL was showing 25% of what it shows for you.

Amen brother Larry! Preach it! :-)

[drfranklin]

I am actually in closer to the big mall by I 75 but the name sounds cooler and my kids go to those schools...

I used to live on Missionary Ridge in Chattanooga about 6 years ago - great downtown area (actually one of the best in country) - would love to visit again someday.

As for Ooltewah - (unless you're from Chattanooga) I get a kick out of people trying to pronounce that...