packbacker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Yep, and there it is. Thanks man. I could be wrong though, that to me looks like the problem, that is definitely different than the March 6/7 event. The Euro actually has this energy forming a coastal day 10 giving NC snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Well, Matt knows more than I ever will, but CAD events with the high well north of the Canadian border don't inspire confidence. Maybe if it were January. Euro also backed WAAAAY off its colder solutions in the 7-10 day range. Huge reversal, really. Yesterday CAD had me at 34 and Alleghany 30-32. CAD still works probably just as good as January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 What happened to the threat in the 3/22 timeframe? How's Atlanta looking for 3/21-3/22 as I have to fly in for business? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 guys looks like everything is normal. We've already lost the storm, a lakes cutter or northwest of nc anyway from what I'm reading on here. GO FIGURE! I thought with all the blocking this storm had no choice but be suppressed. I thought the only issue was would it be cold enough. So what's going on? I think I've had it for this winter, I was so diasappointed in this winter before this. This puts the icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I could be wrong though, that to me looks like the problem, that is definitely different than the March 6/7 event. The Euro actually has this energy forming a coastal day 10 giving NC snow. Of course it does. I'm sure this time it'll actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 guys looks like everything is normal. We've already lost the storm, a lakes cutter or northwest of nc anyway from what I'm reading on here. GO FIGURE! I thought with all the blocking this storm had no choice but be suppressed. I thought the only issue was would it be cold enough. So what's going on? I think I've had it for this winter, I was so diasappointed in this winter before this. This puts the icing on the cake. Well, I think we have seen all winter the blocking doesn't matter as much as we thought it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 FFC is saying a rain/snow mix possible in Atlanta on Thursday night but BMX mentions absolutely nothing about snow. Any thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1102 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 22 2013 - 12Z TUE MAR 26 2013 MULTI-DAY MODEL AVERAGES DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES, AND A PACIFIC JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE EXTREME AMPLITUDE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM OWES TO THE NEAR-RECORD NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION--EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT THE SHORT RANGE. AS VIGOROUS AS THE SYSTEMS STREAMING INTO THE WEST ARE, THEY MUST YIELD TO THE POLAR EXPRESS ONCE THEY EMERGE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DAYS 3 AND 4, WITH A DECIDED ZONAL STRIPE TO ITS PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT WAVE PACKET IS MORE COMPLEX, COMPRISED OF AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES. BASED ON THE EVER-ROBUST MIDDLE GROUND OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, ANTICIPATE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING COLORADO EARLY DAY 4, WITH A DISJOINTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. A GOOD CHUNK OF THE 00Z/19 DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE EMPHASIZING THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE, SPINNING UP A DEEP CYCLONE UP NEAR 40N. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO THE MULTI-DAY AVERAGES, PUTTING MOST OF THE DYNAMICS IN THE LEAD WAVE, AND CUTTING OFF THE TRAILING IMPULSE FROM THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE VIA THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT MORE PHASING WOULD AFFORD. THE PRONOUNCED SQUASH TO THE FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FAVORS A MORE SHEARED EVENT, ALONG THE LINES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. HOW FAR NORTH A SURFACE LOW FINALLY ORGANIZES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF REAL ESTATE AFFECTED BY SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 As Metallica would say....lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 FFC is saying a rain/snow mix possible in Atlanta on Thursday night but BMX mentions absolutely nothing about snow. Any thoughts ? The Gfs had a tiny short wave moving down the 0 line over you and me a few runs back, Now everything is less suppressed so it's up in Tenn. Think we'll have to wait and see what transpires. I don't much trust the models to figure things out 'till we get closer unless the historic blocking has gone poof! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 FFC is saying a rain/snow mix possible in Atlanta on Thursday night but BMX mentions absolutely nothing about snow. Any thoughts ? My thoughts: 1) I sometimes miss the old conservative FFC. Before we know it, FFC is liable to go ahead and put out a WSWatch lol. They've gone from one extreme to the other it seems. 2) I forgot to mention...no NAM, DGEX, or NOGAPS mentions, let alone maps, are allowed in this thread. Well, I can dream of the impossible, can't I? 3) Did I mention that posting here using IE is almost as difficult as Wilkes giving up canned spaghetti and meatballs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Pretty strong CAD signal showing up on the GFS @120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 @120 there is a 1024 high in the GL area with a 1020 high around PA with moisture moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The GFS just gets worse every run. Now the surface low climbs into central Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 @120 there is a 1024 high in the GL area with a 1020 high around PA with moisture moving in. 1) The 12Z 3/19 GFS definitely suggests a wintry precip. threat (mainly IP/ZR) for WNC Saturday night/early Sun. 3/24 with that nice CAD sig. 2) This run's clown map actually gives parts of far NW GA (west of LaFayette toward AL border)/far NE AL ~1" of snow on Friday 3/22. That is a move toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It got wetter with the friday event. Last nights euro dropped 3-5 in sw nc. With the next event the gfs has a closed low in nw Kansas. This might be rain for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 UK way north, low up in KY/OH day 6. GFS leads the way again, good to see the american model showing whose boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 UK way north, low up in KY/OH day 6. GFS leads the way again, good to see the american model showing whose boss.until it shows a snow event. Then it will be wrong. I hate miller b's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Tweaking DT for the first time on his FB page - it's much more fun than I thought it would be, particularly because he's actually trying to argue that the Euro has not moved toward the GFS on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Canadian way north -- looks much like the GFS through 144. #notsowretched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 May be time to close this thread if these trends continue into tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 May be time to close this thread if these trends continue into tonight How bout you just ignore the thread and the rest of us will continue to track our dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 May be time to close this thread if these trends continue into tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Naysayers! How many times have we seen the models lose it only to bring it back right before it happens. Hell, the system that's going to cause the event isn't even on shore yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Naysayers! How many times have we seen the models lose it only to bring it back right before it happens. Hell, the system that's going to cause the event isn't even on shore yet. This year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It hasn't lost it. It's just hundreds of miles further north and west. I think we'd be in a better spot if it was way far suppressed or poof rather than this several hundred mile shift north and west. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Naysayers! How many times have we seen the models lose it only to bring it back right before it happens. Hell, the system that's going to cause the event isn't even on shore yet. Heard this before, too. The trend this winter is for the Euro to follow the GFS and for the storms to go north down the road. I don't see any reason to think that will change until we actually see it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I don't have a lot of confidence either but it's our last chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 My thoughts: 1) I sometimes miss the old conservative FFC. Before we know it, FFC is liable to go ahead and put out a WSWatch lol. They've gone from one extreme to the other it seems. 2) I forgot to mention...no NAM, DGEX, or NOGAPS mentions, let alone maps, are allowed in this thread. Well, I can dream of the impossible, can't I? 3) Did I mention that posting here using IE is almost as difficult as Wilkes giving up canned spaghetti and meatballs? Regarding number three...why not use somthing else like Firefox. I've had zero issues with Firefox. Regarding number one...I 100% agree. I've had 4 winter storm warnings IMBY this year. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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