March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

[Bevo]

nope. 

 

That does not bear out the general consensus that the GFS has been the dominant model in the progressive pattern we've been stuck in.  

[SN_Lover]

That does not bear out the general consensus that the GFS has been the dominant model in the progressive pattern we've been stuck in.  

Im not going to argue about your opinion, sorry. 

 

and this was for this Feb, so the data is not old. 

[Bevo]

statistics trumps opinion...sorry. 

 

Wow - I see.  Forget how many times the Euro touted outbreaks of cold air, but when reality materialized it turned out to be more like the zonal GFS.  Or how the Euro (as is currently the case) has overblown storms in the 10+ day range, then lose them 72 hours or more out and end up with a solution more in line with the GFS (two winters in a row really).

 

I'll take my reality.

[HKY18]

0z gfs similar to the 18z, shows a LP cutting west of the lakes.

[superjames1992]

The GFS stalls our surface low out over Iowa for about 24 hours.  LOL.

[WilkesboroDude]

I am with DT on this one. GFS not consistent at all.

 

 

 

Wxrisk.com

 

42 minutes ago

00z TUESDAY MARCH 19 RUN OF THE GFS ... with regard to the MARCH 24-25 east coast low... this run of the GFS clearly shows why this wretched piece of (removed) model needs to be closed down. This Run of the GFS is just a (removed) cluck... 

ignore it.

[Reb]

euro cuts north   

[timnc910]

The models have been showing a lakes cutter the last couple runs.. maybe they are finally starting to agree on this storm.. or just out to lunch.

[Poimen]

EURO is similar to last run from what I can tell...Miller B type system. At day 6 there is a surface low/upper low near SE Missouri/Illinois/KY/TN with a week surface low along the SE coast. By day 7 there is one low...a 990mb low east of Norfolk.

[beanskip]

Can't wait to see how DT spins this as a victory for the Euro, which clearly trended toward the GFS Miller B idea -- N.C. taken out of the game with the 0z runs (including Canadian, which also shifted north). By the time this one is done it will be a New England storm. See y'all in December.

[FallsLake]

RAH discussion this morning states that they prefer the Euro at this point. They have added wording of the possibility of frozen precip but made sure to not hipe anything at this time:

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF COAST
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A BLOCKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.  LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...BUT THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH.  THE MAIN
EXCEPTION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE ECMWF BRINGS WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN PART WAYS IN THEIR HANDLING OF A MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY.
THE 12Z/18TH ECMWF...SHOWING LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW...ALLOWS THE SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EASTWARD  ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS A
DEEPENING OF THE WAVE...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  BASED ON SOMEWHAT
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY..THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WITH ONLY MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

A PROGRESSIVE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US
WOULD FAVOR INCREASING POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY....AND
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.  A PERFECT
PROG OF THE ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT PTYPE ISSUES
ACROSS SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL NC.  A PARENT HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CANADA WOULD NOT BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION...BUT SURFACE WIND SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF A
DRY AIR SOURCE INTO AN ALREADY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS.
THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850MB JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR PTYPE CONCERNS...THOUGH IMPACTS IN SUCH A
LATE SEASON EVENT ARE QUESTIONABLE. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT THE GFS ONLY OFFERS GENERAL SUPPORT
TO THE ECMWF AND LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR FROZEN PRECIP.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[FallsLake]

Definitely not saying will will see frozen precip but I have seen the models shift way north about this time range in the past. We will have to wait unit Thursday, or so, to see if the shift back south will occur. 

[calculus1]

Can't wait to see how DT spins this as a victory for the Euro, which clearly trended toward the GFS Miller B idea -- N.C. taken out of the game with the 0z runs (including Canadian, which also shifted north). By the time this one is done it will be a New England storm. See y'all in December.

 

Yeah, but the Euro still has a lot of NC in the game.  Check out Matthew East's video for today.  The CAD is strong.

 

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

[packbacker]

The NAVGEM has been consistently showing a miller b but the latest 6z run shifted away from that, was close to something big for the SE, bombs a little late for us but hits the NE hard.

[beanskip]

Well, Matt knows more than I ever will, but CAD events with the high well north of the Canadian border don't inspire confidence. Maybe if it were January.

Euro also backed WAAAAY off its colder solutions in the 7-10 day range. Huge reversal, really.

 

Yeah, but the Euro still has a lot of NC in the game.  Check out Matthew East's video for today.  The CAD is strong.

 

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

[msuwx]

Well, Matt knows more than I ever will, but CAD events with the high well north of the Canadian border don't inspire confidence. Maybe if it were January.

Euro also backed WAAAAY off its colder solutions in the 7-10 day range. Huge reversal, really.

 

Haha.... well, thanks! I don't know more than anybody though....

 

My hunch would be this is a cold rain event for the vast majority of us. This could continue to tick north, and obviously, this is not a climo-favored time of year.

 

With all of that said though....that is some impressive CAD showing up, and at face value, the Canadian and European both show wintry precip for parts of NC. In fact, their 850 charts line up remarkably well for the Carolinas. 

 

But it would take something really special to amount to something significant this time of year. It's not impossible, but it is difficult. 

 

Regarding the Euro vs. GFS..... here's the 0z Monday run of the Euro valid Monday AM:

 

Here's the 0z Monday GFS Monday AM:

 

Now look where we sit with the 0z runs today for Monday AM....

 

Euro:

 

GFS:

 

 

Now, in the past, I have been as big of a critic of the GFS and as big ofa champion of the Euro as anybody....however, the Euro clearly went more to the solution the GFS had yesterday. Now today, the GFS has continued to trend that Plains low more northwest....but it adjusted more back to the southeast with the 6z run. 

[Cold Rain]

But I thought it can't cut north with the historic blocking and big PVs and all that. It simply HAS to stay suppressed, right?

It's been that way with just about every storm this year. Models show suppressed system after suppressed system and then cut it north or turn it into a Miller B as we get closer.

If we don't have some decent ridging out west, this one will probably suffer the same fate. Maybe there is ridging this time though. I'm not going to have computer access most of the week, so I can't see, unless somebody posts H5 maps. But going off of the comments about the overnight runs, it seems to be the same old song and dance.

[Bevo]

Can't wait to see how DT spins this as a victory for the Euro, which clearly trended toward the GFS Miller B idea -- N.C. taken out of the game with the 0z runs (including Canadian, which also shifted north). By the time this one is done it will be a New England storm. See y'all in December.

 

Careful there Skip - someone will throw statistics at you to "prove" otherwise...

 

Definitely trended to the GFS - again.

[packbacker]

But I thought it can't cut north with the historic blocking and big PVs and all that. It simply HAS to stay suppressed, right?

It's been that way with just about every storm this year. Models show suppressed system after suppressed system and then cut it north or turn it into a Miller B as we get closer.

If we don't have some decent ridging out west, this one will probably suffer the same fate. Maybe there is ridging this time though. I'm not going to have computer access most of the week, so I can't see, unless somebody posts H5 maps. But going off of the comments about the overnight runs, it seems to be the same old song and dance.

Although the blocking is still strong on the 24/25th it starts to weaken rapidly on the 24th, which is why this will move north, now that doesn't mean it can't still be south of us and than move north after that but odds are this will be another NE winter storm. You might as well pencil in 10" for Boston.

For reference, the 6z run of the GFS mean has the following for the -AO...

3/23: -5+

3/24: -4.5

3/25: -3.75

3/26: -2.5

[Cold Rain]

Although the blocking is still strong on the 24/25th it starts to weaken rapidly on the 24th, which is why this will move north, now that doesn't mean it can't still be south of us and than move north after that but odds are this will be another NE winter storm. You might as well pencil in 10" for Boston.

For reference, the 6z run of the GFS mean has the following for the -AO...

3/23: -5+

3/24: -4.5

3/25: -3.75

3/26: -2.5

The common thinking is that models tend to break strong blocking down too quickly, which might support it hanging on stronger/longer this time.. On the other hand all year long, the timing has been just off enough to screw us. I would feel really good if I were in New England.

[SnowNiner]

But I thought it can't cut north with the historic blocking and big PVs and all that. It simply HAS to stay suppressed, right?

It's been that way with just about every storm this year. Models show suppressed system after suppressed system and then cut it north or turn it into a Miller B as we get closer.

If we don't have some decent ridging out west, this one will probably suffer the same fate. Maybe there is ridging this time though. I'm not going to have computer access most of the week, so I can't see, unless somebody posts H5 maps. But going off of the comments about the overnight runs, it seems to be the same old song and dance.

 

The one thing I've taken away from this winter, and it seems to be the common thread for every storm, is that northern stream energy simply does not work out for the southeast.  Has to be perfect combo of ULTRA POWER blocking with super stout west coast ridging, 50/50 low, great timing, phasing, blah blah for it to work and it never does.  We just need the southern jet to bring us some energy in southern california that stays south along texas, the gulf and up.  Until then, it's going to be really difficult to get a true SE storm.  With that in mind, it seems blocking doesn't seem to be worth anything for northern stream storms.  -5 AO etc, doesn't seem to be any better than the last storm that cut to NE.  They don't seem to have a problem cutting to the lakes at all....I'm sure I'm missing some nuance there but it seems like storms are not too inhibited.  At least not enough to do the southeast any good.  Maybe blocking is key with southern energy. 

 

And yes, EURO has been horrible this winter.  Even an amatuer doofus like me can see that. 

[packbacker]

The common thinking is that models tend to break strong blocking down too quickly, which might support it hanging on stronger/longer this time.. On the other hand all year long, the timing has been just off enough to screw us. I would feel really good if I were in New England.

 

This looks alot like the March 6th event, but the blocking is stronger with this upcoming event and the air mass colder, even though it's later in March.  For that reason I think the Richmond and points NE could do very well.  We will see.  This does look like a miller B to me though, will be interesting to see what DT does this with this the next couple of days.  Although what the NAVGEM spit out with it's 6z run is our best hope, we just need it to wrap up.  

[Brick Tamland]

But I thought it can't cut north with the historic blocking and big PVs and all that. It simply HAS to stay suppressed, right?

It's been that way with just about every storm this year. Models show suppressed system after suppressed system and then cut it north or turn it into a Miller B as we get closer.

If we don't have some decent ridging out west, this one will probably suffer the same fate. Maybe there is ridging this time though. I'm not going to have computer access most of the week, so I can't see, unless somebody posts H5 maps. But going off of the comments about the overnight runs, it seems to be the same old song and dance.

 

Of course it went north. It's the same thing as it has been all winter. People keep talking about the great blocking, but it hasn't worked yet. I don't know why anyone would not think it is going to go north later down the road until proved otherwise. The Euro has been doing this all winter.

 

Just put winter out of its misery already and bring on the warmer and drier weather.

[beanskip]

LOL -- he doesn't scare me. It's too bad his obsession with defending the Euro clouds his overall forecasting prowess.

Careful there Skip - someone will throw statistics at you to "prove" otherwise...

 

Definitely trended to the GFS - again.

[Cold Rain]

This looks alot like the March 6th event, but the blocking is stronger with this upcoming event and the air mass colder, even though it's later in March. For that reason I think the Richmond and points NE could do very well. We will see. This does look like a miller B to me though, will be interesting to see what DT does this with this the next couple of days. Although what the NAVGEM spit out with it's 6z run is our best hope, we just need it to wrap up.

Yeah, I'm interested in DT's response as well. It'll probably take him another day or two to cave.

Can you tell me how the ridging/troughing along the west coast looks? To me, that's been a big factor this winter. Any troughing out there favors a west-of-the-Apps track, and we've seen a lot of troughing out there this year. And when we have gotten ridging, it's been quickly beaten down by the next kicker rapidly coming in.

[Cold Rain]

The one thing I've taken away from this winter, and it seems to be the common thread for every storm, is that northern stream energy simply does not work out for the southeast. Has to be perfect combo of ULTRA POWER blocking with super stout west coast ridging, 50/50 low, great timing, phasing, blah blah for it to work and it never does. We just need the southern jet to bring us some energy in southern california that stays south along texas, the gulf and up. Until then, it's going to be really difficult to get a true SE storm. With that in mind, it seems blocking doesn't seem to be worth anything for northern stream storms. -5 AO etc, doesn't seem to be any better than the last storm that cut to NE. They don't seem to have a problem cutting to the lakes at all....I'm sure I'm missing some nuance there but it seems like storms are not too inhibited. At least not enough to do the southeast any good. Maybe blocking is key with southern energy.

And yes, EURO has been horrible this winter. Even an amatuer doofus like me can see that.

I agree with you. That's why it would have been nice to see a Nino this year. We would have had a more active STJ. By the way, your last sentence made me lol.

[Stovepipe]

 

 

STFU Donny

[beanskip]

The one thing I've taken away from this winter is that the INSTANT we create a separate storm thread, everything goes to hell. Next winter, can we just make a rule that we skip the extra storm thread, for the sake of superstition?

The one thing I've taken away from this winter, and it seems to be the common thread for every storm, is that northern stream energy simply does not work out for the southeast.  Has to be perfect combo of ULTRA POWER blocking with super stout west coast ridging, 50/50 low, great timing, phasing, blah blah for it to work and it never does.  We just need the southern jet to bring us some energy in southern california that stays south along texas, the gulf and up.  Until then, it's going to be really difficult to get a true SE storm.  With that in mind, it seems blocking doesn't seem to be worth anything for northern stream storms.  -5 AO etc, doesn't seem to be any better than the last storm that cut to NE.  They don't seem to have a problem cutting to the lakes at all....I'm sure I'm missing some nuance there but it seems like storms are not too inhibited.  At least not enough to do the southeast any good.  Maybe blocking is key with southern energy. 

 

And yes, EURO has been horrible this winter.  Even an amatuer doofus like me can see that. 

[packbacker]

Yeah, I'm interested in DT's response as well. It'll probably take him another day or two to cave.

Can you tell me how the ridging/troughing along the west coast looks? To me, that's been a big factor this winter. Any troughing out there favors a west-of-the-Apps track, and we've seen a lot of troughing out there this year. And when we have gotten ridging, it's been quickly beaten down by the next kicker rapidly coming in.

 

Well what's happening is that the GFS and Euro are leaving some energy behind which forms a cutoff over the US/CA border which helps the trough go negative sooner.

 

[Cold Rain]

Well what's happening is that the GFS and Euro are leaving some energy behind which forms a cutoff over the US/CA border which helps the trough go negative sooner.

Yep, and there it is.

Thanks man.