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March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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chapelhill

chapelhill

Posted
Posted

Didn't watch models for this.. but is this precip shield deeper than forecast?  I understand that many are too dry to see much yet though:

It will go north. Sorry to say it but ... cold rain. Too dry and warm in front of this. I hope I'm wrong... :weenie:   closed low at 500 opens up and flattens out on every model that I've seen so far. 1 week of marginal blossom killing lows and then it will be wet and seasonal. It's becoming a little too typical for this time of year all around. If the birds suddenly get hungry again tomorrow, I might reconsider. So far, they just sit in the trees and just look around, no mass feeding frenzy. I might be cray cray, but they just stare at me.  :tomato:  :Well, obviously I am a little cray cray, thanks birds.

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GaWx

GaWx

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 Interesting. I just checked and it has fallen all of the way from 40 to 37 here in Dunwoody under rather clear skies over the past two hours. I didn't expect this clearing. I'd think that thick clouds are getting close.

 

 It looks pretty cloudy now but the temp. hasn't risen from its reading of 37 from one hour ago. With that in mind and when considering that Haleyville was at 42 with a similar TD just before it started raining there and it is now 34/31 there, I'd be very surprised if Dunwoody and much of the ATL area didn't get some frozen precip. (S and/or IP) if a decent amount of precip. gets in here before sunrise. Although I expect drying as it heads eastward, the radars look pretty impressive in AL. So, I'm guessing there will be at least some precip. making it to the ground. If enough falls, I'd think we could wetbulb down to pretty close to 32 here and maybe even have some accumulation of S and/or IP. We'll see!

 

I just read a report that it is snowing at Gadsen, AL. I can't verify it to be true, however. They had 41/27 just prior to the start of precip. So, it was warmer and with a higher TD.

 

Where are the north Georgians? I'm surprised it is this quiet being that we have a "ballgame". I'm guessing Mr. T will appear soon. It looks like IP is headed toward him and the moles based on the bright radar returns!

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

The stuff that's more than virga seems to be a county or two away.  Glad to hear they wet bulbed down from 41 over in Ala, because it wasn't looking like heavy enough precip and I'm still at 41.3 on the one sensor I have working tonight.  A mile away they have a degree cooler, and the dp is still 17.5 so I have hopes if its hard enough a fall it'll cool fast.  T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Euro last night had some light snow showers for most of NC from Monday night through most of the day Tuesday. Might be something to watch.

That might be our best chance of seeing any light snow (token flakes). The 6z GFS came in a little bit warmer with 850s which in my opinion has all but killed any chance this weekend. This time of year you have to be really cold to get frozen precip. The system you mentioned would occure after 850s drop significantly below 0c.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Folks,
 Well, an amazing thing happened at 6:40 AM this morning: Savannah, GA, on the 3rd day of spring, received light sleet that was mixing in with light rain according to reports I just read! At the Hunter base in Savannah, it was 44/22 at 6 AM, just before it started. Together with the great Waycross snow flurry earlier this month, this makes an incredible two March wintry precip. events in SE GA this month!
 

 I'm aware of only three official spring wintry precip. events in Savannah, all being IP:

 

- The March 28 of 1955 trace of IP. Like for this one, the AO had a strong negative peak a little before that date: -3.758 on 3/21. (Also, they got their first measurable snow in 14 years on 2/12/2010, which was 6 days after the very low -5.205 AO of 2/6/10. Very freaky and special things sometimes happen in the SE US very far south near or just after extremely -AO events.) This time, one happened in my hometown two days after a record low AO for late March! I'm so happy for Savannah! Sadly, I wasn't there to experience this very memorable wintry spring event :(. That is sort of ironic I guess/kind of funny.  However, I'm overall a very happy camper knowing this happened even though i wasn't there. :)

 

- The March 23 of 1968 trace of IP. This was actually during a +AO.

 

- The March 24 of 1983 trace of IP. This was during a moderate -AO and was produced by the same storm that produced the big snow further inland in a decent portion of the SE US.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

I had sleet on the way in this morning, and it was enough to leave tracks on the asphalt, but didn't last long.  I guess it's better than nothing at all. 

 

Bring on spring. Although, FFC had this to say this morning:

 

WILL REMAIN A QUITE COLD PERIOD AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS 
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WRAP AROUND ON MONDAY COULD 
ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ON 
TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL PTYPE CONCERNS.

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

I had sleet on the way in this morning, and it was enough to leave tracks on the asphalt, but didn't last long.  I guess it's better than nothing at all. 

 

Bring on spring. Although, FFC had this to say this morning:

 

WILL REMAIN A QUITE COLD PERIOD AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS 

SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WRAP AROUND ON MONDAY COULD 

ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ON 

TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL PTYPE CONCERNS.

 

LOL here we go again! I don't know whether or not there was sleet imby or not, but I know the airport briefly reported a rain/sleet mix around 6am.

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gtg947h

gtg947h

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 Well, an amazing thing happened at 6:40 AM this morning: Savannah, GA, on the 3rd day of spring, received light sleet that was mixing in with light rain according to reports I just read! At the Hunter base in Savannah, it was 44/22 at 6 AM, just before it started. ....

 

I'm so happy for Savannah! Sadly, I wasn't there to experience this very memorable wintry spring event :(. That is sort of ironic I guess/kind of funny.  However, I'm overall a very happy camper knowing this happened even though i wasn't there. :)

 

 

I can confirm the sleet; saw it the whole way to work (just northwest of the airport) around 0600-0620.  Can't say I share your enthusiasm for it, though--I was kinda hoping we'd be having nice warm sunny weather by now.  I have races to train for...

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Very light sleet in marietta. It's coming tony!

I don't know, my friend but what you might want to reconsider your move.  Every little flake, or pellet finds you in Marietta.  How well can you stand to not get anything but the big hits now?  :)

  I have to have amazing powers of acceptance down here, where even the big hits are so few and far between lately.  I might have heard a few pellets this morning around 4:30, but I kept finding the dry slots. and gave up and crashed.  At least I have the cold air.  I've been dreading the hot weather coming, and this is a nice reprieve.  Hope it lasts until Sept., lol. Congrats, on Sav. Larry.  I think this whole month of March ought to be changed to Larry month, in your honor.   January, February, Larry, April....has a certain  ring to it, lol. T

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NGTim

NGTim

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Am I the only one in Georgia who saw moderate snow last night ? It was easily the heaviest snow I've seen in over 2 years. Some sleet mixed in but it was 80% snow I would say.

Nothing that I saw up this way, and I didn't see any snow reports on cocorahs either, so you might be the lucky one. glad someone saw some good snow.  wish you had taken pics. 

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GaWx

GaWx

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I don't know, my friend but what you might want to reconsider your move.  Every little flake, or pellet finds you in Marietta.  How well can you stand to not get anything but the big hits now?  :)

  I have to have amazing powers of acceptance down here, where even the big hits are so few and far between lately.  I might have heard a few pellets this morning around 4:30, but I kept finding the dry slots. and gave up and crashed.  At least I have the cold air.  I've been dreading the hot weather coming, and this is a nice reprieve.  Hope it lasts until Sept., lol. Congrats, on Sav. Larry.  I think this whole month of March ought to be changed to Larry month, in your honor.   January, February, Larry, April....has a certain  ring to it, lol. T

 

Snowstorm2011,

 Congrats, man! That's fantastic and much deserved. It is almost like your own personal snowstorm. It is hard to imagine a cooler feeling than that!

 

Tony,

 Lol, thanks. I want to thank the moles! I vote to rename March "Moles". Same starting letter, too, lol.

No pellets witnessed by me in the AM in Dunwoody although I may have slept throuigh it. I was so hoping for you to hear some. The cold is still not that close to being done yet! I love how it has stymied the very early spring look to some plants/trees that started in late Feb. So cool!

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

No big winter storm coming for most of us SE people, but this weekend will be interesting with ptypes possible changing between snow, freezing rain, and rain. RAH afternoon discussion:

 


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING: EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT... THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO ~12Z SAT GIVEN THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND JUST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SUNRISE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL LEAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE W/SW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN INDICATING A BAND OF PRECIP ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE NEAR THE VA BORDER TO SEVERAL TENTHS NEAR THE SC BORDER. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TO 60-80% ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64 BETWEEN 12-18Z...30-50% NORTH OF HWY 64 TO THE VA BORDER. INTERESTINGLY...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL/WETBULB PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET... PRIMARILY IN THE 09-14Z TIME-FRAME. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR...ESP GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD/DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LITTLE SFC-H85 ADVECTION...IT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. WILL INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 09-14Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT LITTLE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL GIVEN LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING THE TIME FRAME THAT THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 29-37F...COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS EAST AND NE OF THE TRIANGLE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: ANTICIPATE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SAT AFT/EVE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WANES AND PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EASTWARD BY ~18Z...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM S/SW TO N/NE LATE SAT NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY (MILLER B). HAVE DECREASED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S ON SAT IN ANTICIPATION OF AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z... WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR OR LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO HELP ERODE THE WEDGE. IN FACT...EVEN THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC AS LONG AS WIDESPREAD PRECIP OCCURS BETWEEN 12-18Z. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N/NW TO UPPER 30S S/SE. -VINCENT

-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...

...COLD RAIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...

A STRONG HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
EVOLVING BY THE START OF SUNDAY... THEN REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RAIN ENVELOPS THE REGION. THE EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STILL FAVORED WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH/TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPING MILLER TYPE B SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WEAKEN
SUNDAY... AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND LIFTS UP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAD WILL DEVELOP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD
CORE EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 3000 FEET AGL IN THE HEART OF THE CAD REGION. WAA ALOFT SHOULD
ENSURE LIQUID (RAIN) AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S ALOFT SUNDAY.
INTERESTINGLY... PARTIAL THICKNESSES FORECAST SUNDAY INDICATE
NUMBERS IN THE RANGE OF 1302-1306M FOR THE 1000/850 AND 1565M UP AT
THE 850/700 LEVELS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAD EVENT OVER GREENSBORO.
THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING TO 32 NEAR THE SURFACE... AND 30 AT 1500 FEET AGL AS
SUGGESTED BY THE COLDEST EC MODEL RUN. SURFACE WET BULB FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL FALL TO 32 FOR A FEW
HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT FROM FORSYTH TO PERSON COUNTIES
DURING THE MAIN RAIN EVENT. GIVEN THAT THE SUN ANGLE IS HIGH NOW...
FREEZING RAIN WITH THESE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCRUE. THEREFORE... NO IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUNDAY. QPF
BASED ON THE EC WOULD RANGE IN THE 0.5 TO 0.75 RANGE... WITH THE NAM
WETTER AND THE GFS DRIER. SINCE THE EC IS FAVORED... AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE QPF SOLUTIONS OF THE MODELS... THE 0.5 TO 0.75 STORM
TOTAL APPEARS REASONABLE. SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE RAIN AND COLD
SUNDAY. RAIN TAPERING TO DRIZZLE LATE. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S... EXCEPT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE READINGS
SHOULD HOLD AROUND 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT... A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH IS EXPECTED TO END THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE TYPICAL CAD
RELATED ISSUES INCLUDING DRIZZLE... FOG... AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST. IN ADDITION... THE MID/UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN KY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL COME BACK SE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. SOME CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES... CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER FEATURE ESPECIALLY MONDAY. PARTIALS
CRASH BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY SUGGESTING A CHANGE IN PTYPE TO LIGHT
SNOW IF ANY OCCURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT IF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH... WITH NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT. FOR NOW... WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN... POSSIBLY
BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW (WITH NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS) FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND TOO
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ACCUMULATION... AND THE BL WILL BE TOO WARM
MONDAY FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY SNOW. LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED NORTH... LITTLE ELSEWHERE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY 30-35. MONDAY... A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
(AGAIN NO IMPACT NORTH)... OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. CONTINUED COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

 

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Larry, it looks like the western north central was the place to be.  I emptied out my gage a while ago and had 3  small drops in there, lol.  3 freaking drops.  Hard to get the dp to do it's thing with all dry slots for the event.  I watched as the heavy reflections went north and south..so reminiscent of the last 4 years, where Atl. got snow and I got squat, because the precip kept missing me.

  Still, as you say the cold hangs on thank goodness ( I am not looking forward to the heat since we've had spring and summer only now for most of 3 winters), but the model last night made Tues look interesting, for at least parts of Ga. and I'm holding out hope for a dive south on that 0 line, and maybe for some real precip can find me.  As always they'll have to drag me kicking and screaming into spring.  I'd rather have a root canal until the Masters is over...then I'm ok, for some reason :)  At least until the 90's hit in May.  After the first two 90's I just have to grit my teeth until Fall.  Summer wasn't so bad in the old days when we had rain every afternoon.  But the endless hot, dry, windless days just seem like a curse now, lol.   T

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Wow, RAH is going ALL-IN. :lol:

 

Seriously, though, they seem pretty bullish.  Rain/snow in my point forecast tomorrow morning and Sunday night, not to mention their AFD.

 

 

NWS Raleigh is found of, "mainly north of highway 64".

 

 

That seems to be their dividing line with every single marginal snow event.

 

 
Speaking of the devil, from their latest AFD... :lol:
 

 

WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE NEAR THE VA BORDER TO SEVERAL TENTHS NEAR THE SC BORDER. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TO 60-80% ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64 BETWEEN 12-18Z...30-50% NORTH OF HWY 64 TO THE VA BORDER. INTERESTINGLY...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL/WETBULB PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET... PRIMARILY IN THE 09-14Z TIME-FRAME. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR...ESP GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD/DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LITTLE SFC-H85 ADVECTION...IT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. WILL INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 09-14Z.

 

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