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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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GGEM goes all meteolegically imporkable on us and goes to Chicago as well.  If the Euro does the same, remember, it's NOT the Euro caving to the GFS.  GFS shows the storm in Chicago.  Euro having the storm in Springfield, IL, will be totally different.  

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GFS ensemble mean has lows in the OV and off the Carolinas at 6z Mon. Kind of a mess thereafter but chillyish.Verbatim it's still fairly sucky around here.

I'm back in, in all seriousness until the Euro shows this cutting like the goofus I wouldn't worry too much.
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Exactly.  Ahole tried to call me out by my screenname when DT already knows who I am, lol.  The dude acted like he was doing something.

 

At any rate...I actually agree with DT for the most part...although I think it can cut just west of us.

 

It'll cut because the block will be less otherwordly than it's expected to be.  Damn the physics of the models...the GFS knows what will happen at 5H in future runs, so its current surface output is a reflection of that.

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Isn't this basically a similar version of what happened with the Feb storm that hammered Kansas?  Low runs up to the Iowa, Chicago area and just wilts?

 

For whoever it was that said congrats Harrisonburg and Winchester ..... you can forget that.  We aren't going to get good things from a low 1000+ miles away.

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Isn't this basically a similar version of what happened with the Feb storm that hammered Kansas?  Low runs up to the Iowa, Chicago area and just wilts?

 

For whoever it was that said congrats Harrisonburg and Winchester ..... you can forget that.  We aren't going to get good things from a low 1000+ miles away.

 

it does look a bit similar on the gfs.. so that is possible.

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sure looked promising on Day 5 eyeballing the Plymouth maps

Day 6 has a 996 slp right off HAT, so it's close

I bet the ensembles will show more of a hit

You are probably right. If I am not mistaken the last 3 runs of the ensembles have been NW of the Op.

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