Amped Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Terrible track. Convection will rob everyone in th cold sector. H5 low was over Virginia 12z yesterday when it didn't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 actually on second look this is pretty legit gfs_namer_141_precip_ptot.gif GFS is now locked in. Everything else will trend towards it. Utter failure. No chance at all for any snow.... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 This has been a miller B winter-- Persistence. Bet against it, Do not. Congrats to Harrisonburg and Winchester again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 What happened to the block from God? G-d has forsaken us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 G-d has forsaken us. Bring on severe, anything is better than this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 just ignore the american models. Pretend that they dont exist. Use the european exclusively for better or worse. The 00z euro control has a HECS btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 look! more snow for BOS more negative snow for us yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 G-d has forsaken us. Some DT douche sycophant replied to my mostly serious post on DT's wall. But Dave's response to the 12z GFS. CORRECT as I said in the VIDEO... did u see it? AGAIN.. this has NOTHING nothing to do with ANY Model. 1 The AO is at Historically SEVERE negative levels of -5... 2 the NAO is also negative 4.5 3 There is huge 50/50 Low 4 MJO phase 8 to 1... this Low is NOT going to chicago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Some DT douche sycophant replied to my mostly serious post on DT's wall. But Dave's response to the 12z GFS. CORRECT as I said in the VIDEO... did u see it? AGAIN.. this has NOTHING nothing to do with ANY Model. 1 The AO is at Historically SEVERE negative levels of -5... 2 the NAO is also negative 4.5 3 There is huge 50/50 Low 4 MJO phase 8 to 1... this Low is NOT going to chicago... Mathologicaly impassible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Some DT douche sycophant replied to my mostly serious post on DT's wall. But Dave's response to the 12z GFS. CORRECT as I said in the VIDEO... did u see it? AGAIN.. this has NOTHING nothing to do with ANY Model. 1 The AO is at Historically SEVERE negative levels of -5... 2 the NAO is also negative 4.5 3 There is huge 50/50 Low 4 MJO phase 8 to 1... this Low is NOT going to chicago... lol, i saw. we have lots of people who read the board nonstop then whine elsewhere. and i called it. i do tend to think the gfs is too far west.. not sure it matters that much for us in the heat island of the low lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 just ignore the american models. Pretend that they dont exist. Use the european exclusively for better or worse. The 00z euro control has a HECS btw Euro better hold the line. But the way this winter has been, I wouldn't be suprised to see it move towards the GFS with a delayed re-development scenario---congrats, SNE. On the other hand, all patterns have to coome to an end at some point. Remember in late Feb 2010 our epic run ended with a storm that screwed us and hit further. Maybe this storm will be the pattern changer and end our misery. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GFS ensemble mean has lows in the OV and off the Carolinas at 6z Mon. Kind of a mess thereafter but chillyish.Verbatim it's still fairly sucky around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 lol, i saw. we have lots of people who read the board nonstop then whine elsewhere. and i called it. i do tend to think the gfs is too far west.. not sure it matters that much for us in the heat island of the low lands. Exactly. Ahole tried to call me out by my screenname when DT already knows who I am, lol. The dude acted like he was doing something. At any rate...I actually agree with DT for the most part...although I think it can cut just west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GGEM goes all meteolegically imporkable on us and goes to Chicago as well. If the Euro does the same, remember, it's NOT the Euro caving to the GFS. GFS shows the storm in Chicago. Euro having the storm in Springfield, IL, will be totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GFS ensemble mean has lows in the OV and off the Carolinas at 6z Mon. Kind of a mess thereafter but chillyish.Verbatim it's still fairly sucky around here.I'm back in, in all seriousness until the Euro shows this cutting like the goofus I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z euro will be interesting to say the least. If it holds and develops the secondary around South Carolina again, I think the game is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Exactly. Ahole tried to call me out by my screenname when DT already knows who I am, lol. The dude acted like he was doing something. At any rate...I actually agree with DT for the most part...although I think it can cut just west of us. It'll cut because the block will be less otherwordly than it's expected to be. Damn the physics of the models...the GFS knows what will happen at 5H in future runs, so its current surface output is a reflection of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GEfs are ugly. Stung out secondary..... not what you wanna see. NIce title too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro doesn't do big jumps very often like the gfs does. It made a move last night with an ohv transfer. Anything further west then that is a red flag the size of russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 GGEM is what i think the storm will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Isn't this basically a similar version of what happened with the Feb storm that hammered Kansas? Low runs up to the Iowa, Chicago area and just wilts? For whoever it was that said congrats Harrisonburg and Winchester ..... you can forget that. We aren't going to get good things from a low 1000+ miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GGEM is what i think the storm will do I'm not sure the GGEM solution is that great for us? Regardless, I'm riding the Euro 100%. No blending. Euro or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Isn't this basically a similar version of what happened with the Feb storm that hammered Kansas? Low runs up to the Iowa, Chicago area and just wilts? For whoever it was that said congrats Harrisonburg and Winchester ..... you can forget that. We aren't going to get good things from a low 1000+ miles away. it does look a bit similar on the gfs.. so that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 euro is such a better model What's going on with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 wide right/OTS OK. Well, I'm hugging that for now. HECS cancel. I'm guessing block/suppression issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I like the April 3rd threat better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 wide right/OTS IWMs blew up. Where does the 500 low track after 120 (SE Kansas)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I like the April 3rd threat better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 So the EURO and the GFS are still on different planets? Shock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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