The March 25-March 32 HECS potential

[Fozz]

3/42 was the fluke of all flukes. It was not an east coast snowstorm-- a lame 1008-mb low scooting off the coast had a super-intense band of precip associated with an inverted trough that dropped ~12" in DC, 22" in Baltimore, over 30" in Northern Maryland, and 36"+ in Central PA. Surrounding this pretty narrow corridor of snowfall was non-accumulating snow or rain. 

 

3/58 dumped 3.75" liquid equivalent at DCA. Try to find another snowstorm that was as wet. 

 

I think a takeaway from these late season cases is that they were all extreme in one way or another. A 0.75-1" liquid equivalent storm spread out over 18 hours is just not going to do it if want a significant accumulation in the cities.

Something like 3/24-25/90 is like the upper bound for DC nowadays (unless you do get that extreme event)-- a few inches of pretty snow on grass and trees but not sticking on the roads.  

 

What a massive bomb it was......my great uncle (may he RIP) had very fond memories of March 1958. He was 10 years old at the time and lived in south central PA, told me it was one of the most massive snowstorms he's ever seen, and that the snow didn't totally melt away until April. It had to have been 30"+ because that area was in the bullseye according to all the snow maps I've seen.

 

Apparently, even areas of Baltimore city with 400'+ of elevation got 20"+ while BWI had maybe 8" or so with less in DCA. Temps were extremely marginal and above freezing so even 100' made a big difference.

[wxmeddler]

What a massive bomb it was......my great uncle (may he RIP) had very fond memories of March 1958. He was 10 years old at the time and lived in south central PA, told me it was one of the most massive snowstorms he's ever seen, and that the snow didn't totally melt away until April. It had to have been 30"+ because that area was in the bullseye according to all the snow maps I've seen.

 

Apparently, even areas of Baltimore city with 400'+ of elevation got 20"+ while BWI had maybe 8" or so with less in DCA. Temps were extremely marginal and above freezing so even 100' made a big difference.

 

Millersville has been keeping daily records since 1914 and snowfall records since 1926. Millersville had 3 storms in 9 days from March 10-19, 1958 totaling 23.5"

3 10 1958 1.5

3 14 1958 9.0

3 19 1958 13.0

[Fozz]

Millersville has been keeping daily records since 1914 and snowfall records since 1926. Millersville had 3 storms in 9 days from March 10-19, 1958 totaling 23.5"

3 10 1958 1.5

3 14 1958 9.0

3 19 1958 13.0

 

They also received 20" from that storm in Feb 1958.

 

Amazing winter, especially in the burbs.

[ravensrule]

The GFS still looks as crappy as 18Z.

[Ji]

The GFS still looks as crappy as 18Z.

I'm using 6z and 12z. The later runs got fed bad data

[Amped]

GGEM an interesting solution to say the least.

[Inudaw]

If the trend is for a Miller B evolution... count Richmond out!   :-p 

[Ji]

Euro caved to the 12z Gfs?

[wxmeddler]

Euro caved to the 12z Gfs?

 

More or less... It's the 12zGFS,0z GEM and 0z Euro VS. 18 and 0z GFS. FWIW, the 0z Euro only gives the DC area ~.5-.75" with the bacon strip down across RIC. TBH though, I am almost keen to take stock in the latest GFS solutions in the ejection of the deep trough bowling ball. No scientific reason, the euro/cmc solutions just look odd.

[Bob Chill]

For supposedly having ridiculous blocking, seems like the storm has no problem going West.

Euro still has .9ish at dca/iad with plenty cold 850s but 34-36 surface. Not that it matters. I'm not so sure this idea goes away and the euro prob will continue down the path.

There comes a time when you have to root for a cut and no redevelopment so you get some table scrap waa into a cold dome and then dryslot. Prob is that this scenario doesn't work with summer approaching.

[North Balti Zen]

For supposedly having ridiculous blocking, seems like the storm has no problem going West.

Euro still has .9ish at dca/iad with plenty cold 850s but 34-36 surface. Not that it matters. I'm not so sure this idea goes away and the euro prob will continue down the path.

There comes a time when you have to root for a cut and no redevelopment so you get some table scrap waa into a cold dome and then dryslot. Prob is that this scenario doesn't work with summer approaching.

Correct that the time to root for that is not eatly spring,,,

[CAPE]

For supposedly having ridiculous blocking, seems like the storm has no problem going West.

Euro still has .9ish at dca/iad with plenty cold 850s but 34-36 surface. Not that it matters. I'm not so sure this idea goes away and the euro prob will continue down the path.

There comes a time when you have to root for a cut and no redevelopment so you get some table scrap waa into a cold dome and then dryslot. Prob is that this scenario doesn't work with summer approaching.

Story of the winter isnt it? ATMOSPHERIC MEMORY as J. Burke would say(lol). No matter how good things seem to look pattern-wise, you can book it- DC/BWI/PHI will get screwed somehow someway..

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Need to keep a realistic expectation here, and I think most of you would...with the liklihood of this being a Miller B, its going to be even more difficult to get the surface temps to cooperate...Obviously, need the secondary to take over as early as possible and be close enough to the coast..very big longshot for accumulation of any significance in the cities, even the burbs are probably a bit of a longshot for something 'significant'....Just not enough Miller As this year.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

For supposedly having ridiculous blocking, seems like the storm has no problem going West.

Euro still has .9ish at dca/iad with plenty cold 850s but 34-36 surface. Not that it matters. I'm not so sure this idea goes away and the euro prob will continue down the path.

There comes a time when you have to root for a cut and no redevelopment so you get some table scrap waa into a cold dome and then dryslot. Prob is that this scenario doesn't work with summer approaching.

Yeah but as you indicate with that last little sentence, overruning likely wouldnt work here either...tried that yesterday, surface temps just unlikely to cooperate with light precipitation...We all know we're doomed but suckers to talk about it still. The kick in the face is that the temps for March will be pretty well below normal, nice icing on the cake

[WxUSAF]

Euro ensembles quite supportive of the Op.  Ensembles weaker and a bit more progressive, which I'd interpret as still some spread in the solutions.  

 

6z GFS is back to a solution more similar to 12z yesterday, but still keeps the OH Valley low hanging around longer than the Euro.  Seeing that OH Valley low makes me doubt we can get surface temps cold enough.  6z GFS keeps surface temps above freezing even though 850s are plenty cold.  6z GEFS are fairly similar.  

 

For me to believe this is going to be accumulating snow, I want to see the Euro show surface temps no warmer than 34F or maybe 35F.  Want the GFS to show surface temps of 31-33F.  Nighttime will obviously help if temps are slightly above freezing.  

[TowsonWeather]

We all know we're doomed but suckers to talk about it still. The kick in the face is that the temps for March will be pretty well below normal, nice icing on the cake

 

Haha - so true. I'm checking model runs, even though I know, deep down in my heart, that this has basically zero chance of giving us anything much beyond some chilly light rain.

 

Ugh.

[Bob Chill]

Euro ensembles quite supportive of the Op.  Ensembles weaker and a bit more progressive, which I'd interpret as still some spread in the solutions.  

 

6z GFS is back to a solution more similar to 12z yesterday, but still keeps the OH Valley low hanging around longer than the Euro.  Seeing that OH Valley low makes me doubt we can get surface temps cold enough.  6z GFS keeps surface temps above freezing even though 850s are plenty cold.  6z GEFS are fairly similar.  

 

For me to believe this is going to be accumulating snow, I want to see the Euro show surface temps no warmer than 34F or maybe 35F.  Want the GFS to show surface temps of 31-33F.  Nighttime will obviously help if temps are slightly above freezing.  

 

Euro isn't all that bad at the surface. Really good at 850. Can't put much stock in these #'s obviously becaue it's so dependent on how the lp evolves. That wont be known for days. At least for now nothing can be written off. Confidence in a low confidence event has been shaken but still worth a daily look. 

 

Here's IAD. Cuts off @ d7 on text:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.1    -6.1    1012      85     100    0.12     549     540    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -4.3    1006      96     100    0.45     544     538    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.2    -5.2    1012      94      93    0.37     544     534    

 

Here's DCA:

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   2.0    -5.1    1011      84     100    0.11     550     541    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.1    1006      98     100    0.40     544     540    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.6    -4.6    1011      94      93    0.37     543     535    

 

Just for giggles...here's CHO. The new model snow capital of the MA:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.2    -5.3    1010      86     100    0.31     548     540    MON 18Z 25-MAR   0.9    -4.9    1005      94     100    0.64     540     536    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.6    -4.9    1012      90      87    0.49     544     534    

[Bob Chill]

Euro is pretty much an all snow sounding @ IAD. That's the only local sounding I can see. Temps below freezing just off the surface and colder as you go further up the column. 

 

Surface winds N-NE. No E or ENE or anything like that. 

 

I'm personally expecting a no-go here. Now that consensus is forming for a cut and re-develop, I just don't see how it works out in late march. I hope I'm wrong of course. 

[WxUSAF]

I'm personally expecting a no-go here. Now that consensus is forming for a cut and re-develop, I just don't see how it works out in late march. I hope I'm wrong of course. 

Cut and re-develop is hard to work in January, let alone March 25ish.  I could very easily see 12 hours of non-accumulating snow or RASN just like March 6th.  With the blocking and a high to the north, I doubt even in a "warm" scenario our temps get above the low 40s with this storm.  

[Ji]

Euro isn't all that bad at the surface. Really good at 850. Can't put much stock in these #'s obviously becaue it's so dependent on how the lp evolves. That wont be known for days. At least for now nothing can be written off. Confidence in a low confidence event has been shaken but still worth a daily look. 

 

Here's IAD. Cuts off @ d7 on text:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.1    -6.1    1012      85     100    0.12     549     540    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -4.3    1006      96     100    0.45     544     538    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.2    -5.2    1012      94      93    0.37     544     534    

 

Here's DCA:

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   2.0    -5.1    1011      84     100    0.11     550     541    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.1    1006      98     100    0.40     544     540    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.6    -4.6    1011      94      93    0.37     543     535    

 

Just for giggles...here's CHO. The new model snow capital of the MA:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.2    -5.3    1010      86     100    0.31     548     540    MON 18Z 25-MAR   0.9    -4.9    1005      94     100    0.64     540     536    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.6    -4.9    1012      90      87    0.49     544     534    

not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol

[Bob Chill]

not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol

 

It's close to 600' in elevation vs 300+/- for IAD and in a good cad spot for ne winds. CHO would be closer to the ull as well. But this is all hair splitting stuff anyways and I agree about things starting to look like snowlessfesturd

[Kevin Druff]

It's close to 600' in elevation vs 300+/- for IAD and in a good cad spot for ne winds. CHO would be closer to the ull as well. But this is all hair splitting stuff anyways and I agree about things starting to look like snowlessfesturd

Actually, Bob, it's worse than that really. Most of Charlottesville is 750'+. The UVA observatory (Charlottesville coop station) is actually 866'.

[stormtracker]

Look, we had a daunting task to begin with.   I'm not as optimistic as i once was for a late season last gasp.   Every time the block is modeled to be "extreme", it gets less so with each successive run of the models and storms that were supposedly impossible to cut west do just that.    

[WinterWxLuvr]

First, much of the area is not DC proper.  Second, I don't know where this idea that a cut and redevelop can't work.  It can work, it worked yesterday (without the redevelop I guess).  If you have CAD you can pull that off.  Maybe not DC, but everybody isn't DC.  What won't work is a low in Iowa or Illinois.  It has to be close enough to throw good precip in.  Like Kentucky or Ohio close.  In fact, for some of us, it's the most reliable of all scenarios.  We never topped freezing yesterday.  On the March 6 storm with a low to our southeast, we almost didn't stay below 40.

 

I'll take the 6z gfs right now.

[North Balti Zen]

Us balt area folks that couldn't even get a pity flake yesterday may need their own thread. But, yeah, winterwx, maybe another front end thump cashes you in yet again. Awesome.

[tdmorrow]

D+8 and D+11 upper air analogs show up with 5 dates in the 3/17-3/27 1958 range. That was the same time period that we had two snowstorms here in the Mid Atlantic.

[mitchnick]

not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol

iow, same ole' pattern

the question we need to ask is "what is different" this time?

those Euro numbers indicate to me little or nothing to make a difference in the end

I guess one can hope if one chooses, but....

[WinterWxLuvr]

Us balt area folks that couldn't even get a pity flake yesterday may need their own thread. But, yeah, winterwx, maybe another front end thump cashes you in yet again. Awesome.

Well, I did qualify my statement that DC is different.  I guess I should have add Baltimore.

 

Do you think you would have had snow yesterday morning if you had had good precip?  That's where the focus has to be IMO.  You have to have good precip.  You aren't going to get it from a low in Illinois.  You need a low that's closer.  If it's in Ky and you have CAD you're going to have a shot.  If that low is off Va Beach you're going to get SE winds I would think.  That scenario didn't play too well for you guys about 2 weeks ago.  I'd think you'd want big CAD and a strong sw moisture feed for the precip.

 

Doesn't matter what I think anyway.  Who knows what this looks like in a few days.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The Euro I can see with limited access doesn't look to be too far from pretty good.

[Bob Chill]

The Euro I can see with limited access doesn't look to be too far from pretty good.

 

It's similar to the first signs of redevelopment on the gfs. primary into ky and redevelopment off the seva/nc coast. Keeps the column cool. The notable thing is it looks like the gfs in some important respects. If a transfer scenario really does become locked in then expectations should be reduced to a notable event at best but still nothing exciting.