Benchmark Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Overnight hit on the Euro like GFS? I think that just as important as 950's and wind direction this time of year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Overnight hit on the Euro like GFS? I think that just as important as 950's and wind direction this time of year!! the peak is probably mon night tho not sure it matters on timing at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I guess you could call last night a confidence builder of sorts. It "can" be below freezing and snow at the same time even in the second half of march. It's not like it was some arctic hp pushing crazy below normal temps in here. Overall it was a pedestrian cold front with good cold in the source region. One thing the euro/gfs do agree on is some pretty cold stuff in here on the weekend. In the 30's saturday from what I can tell and pretty far down into the 20's near the cities at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 this all sounds so familiar the gfs is cracked out. no way we're getting 1'+ in the coastal plain. if it happens i'll never post here again. this will be an elevation event if it comes together IMO. we might get some snow but doubtful we get much around DC/Balt. no need to watch it play out over 7 days.. i'd take that bet now with anyone who wants to go head to head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 the gfs is cracked out. no way we're getting 1'+ in the coastal plain. if it happens i'll never post here again. this will be an elevation event if it comes together IMO. we might get some snow but doubtful we get much around DC/Balt. no need to watch it play out over 7 days.. i'd take that bet now with anyone who wants to go head to head. anyone willing to make that bet doesn't earn enough money while in high school to make it worth your while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 the gfs is cracked out. no way we're getting 1'+ in the coastal plain. if it happens i'll never post here again. this will be an elevation event if it comes together IMO. we might get some snow but doubtful we get much around DC/Balt. no need to watch it play out over 7 days.. i'd take that bet now with anyone who wants to go head to head. Why, last time the AO was -5 was Feb 2010...You guys have taken it on the chin many times the past 3 years, that may change next Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 anyone willing to make that bet doesn't earn enough money while in high school to make it worth your while It's fun to play around and have a good time but the conversation here recently has been a bit overboard on the "positive" side. I'm not even sure if I'm supposed to take most people seriously or not anymore in a majority of their posts. On the flip side it's still in fantasy range when it comes to details and crazy **** does happen every now and then. I'll give it about a 5% chance of being exciting snowwise IMBY, which is higher than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Why, last time the AO was -5 was Feb 2010...You guys have taken it on the chin many times the past 3 years, that may change next Sunday/Monday. It may but anyone going there is simply wishcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's fun to play around and have a good time but the conversation here recently has been a bit overboard on the "positive" side. I'm not even sure if I'm supposed to take most people seriously or not anymore in a majority of their posts. On the flip side it's still in fantasy range when it comes to details and crazy **** does happen every now and then. I'll give it about a 5% chance of being exciting snowwise IMBY, which is higher than climo. I see the weenies are breaking you down, stay strong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I see the weenies are breaking you down, stay strong . fortunately for you all im falling deeper into tornadoes by this time of year.. except there are no current ones to follow.. so my debness will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 fortunately for you all im falling deeper into tornadoes by this time of year.. except there are no current ones to follow.. so my debness will be limited. That's great news, now you can cry with us when the models are showing 4-8" next Sunday and we get 1" on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Take the Euro precip and cut it by 75% for up here, 50% for DCA. Make it spotty too. Throw out all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Once again the GFS says "Let's try this scenario out. It's different than the last one". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 toss a big cutter into the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So, as usual this year, the EURO and the GFS are worlds apart. Ones a cutter and the other suppressed. I'm so confused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 How often does a storm in Illinois transfer to Ohio? Throw it out. It's the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 How often does a storm in Illinois transfer to Ohio? Throw it out. It's the 18z. I think the bigger question is how often does it transfer from IL to OH and then again to VA Beach? I think it's safe to say that a solution that shows a re-developer that re-develops a second time probably won't end up verifying. Although SNE gets hit pretty good so it verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think the bigger question is how often does it transfer from IL to OH and then again to VA Beach? I think it's safe to say that a solution that shows a re-developer that re-develops a second time probably won't end up verifying. Although SNE gets hit pretty good so it verify. Good point.I made the post before the second transfer. But looking at the 500, the 12z had that big vort moving thru southern Virginia and the 18z now has basically the same path but it's a series of smaller vorts. Have no idea of the significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So, as usual this year, the EURO and the GFS are worlds apart. Ones a cutter and the other suppressed. I'm so confused! Translation ...... Bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 April 3rd looks pretty solid I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Martinsburg, WV had 10" on April 28th once. 13" at Romney. I never bail this early on snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA Next to Ian, you are the funniest (translate: looniest) poster on the board, although this last statement will give him a run for the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Next to Ian, you are the funniest (translate: looniest) poster on the board, although this last statement will give him a run for the money. I'm even nuttier in person. In a very fun way of course. Not chopping up small animals or anything, Well, at least not anymore but that's a whole nuther topic. And it wasn't my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA I'm fine with talking about it.. I've done plenty myself and am watching even if really skeptical locally. But it is nice when the convo is a bit more grounded.. it's been a little off the wall lately. In the broader region there is no real reason to bail yet.. even in DC. But we're crunching the climo window really hard now. There have been no 1"+ snows officially in DC since the 1920s. To me, and I've said it before, snow is almost entirely an IMBY affair. I think for most that is the same. It's cool to see people in the hills etc get a nice several inches last night or in the future.. but I'm selfish on this one and don't really care that much while despising a day like this in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 In April? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yes The Winter Storm Warning for April 9th, 1996 was the one negative bust that season from 24 hours out. It kind of stung, but not really, given the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 bizarre sh-it happens....4/18/83 Tennessee Valley and Carolinas got a few inches....even RDU got 2" the storm I chased last April 24th?....stuck pretty well above 1600'....just not enough moisture to do much more than a glorified dusting...Maybe one day I'll go chase something in May/June in the Dakotas or Rockies... When I was in 6th grade, we spent a week in late May at what was then called "outdoor school," in the high ground of Garrett Co. The first day we were there was in the upper 70's, but a front rolled through with strong thunderstorms and hail. Early the next morning, it snowed about 2". It was unforgettable, not least because we were sleeping in cabins with no heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The Winter Storm Warning for April 9th, 1996 was the one negative bust that season from 24 hours out. It kind of stung, but not really, given the rest of the season.I wasn't even on the EC yet so missed it all. I'm sure there are other 'near misses' too. I'm sure I could get cartoppers till about mid April if it's timed perfectly but I don't like snow enough for that to be fun at this pt. I will say it is something to have a -20 afternoon march temp these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 even Bob Ryan didnt really believe it though he did forecast 4-8" IIRC....knowing climo, I dont know how anyone could forecast more than 2" on 4/9 for inside the beltway even with epic model runs Yeah.. the NWS Warning phrasing was 4-8". Bob Ryan had tried to shave it down to 2-5" for the immediate metro in the afternoon newscast, but was still too high. We didn't get the low to bomb out in time, whereas Atlantic City, NJ, managed to get 8" under the comma head that was modeled to start over us. IAD reported 2.5", but I wonder if that was legit, or were they using the ridiculous method that Philadelphia used to record 2.4" in the same storm-- the observers tried to guess how much snow "fell" even though it didn't stick, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 bizarre sh-it happens....4/18/83 Tennessee Valley and Carolinas got a few inches....even RDU got 2" the storm I chased last April 24th?....stuck pretty well above 1600'....just not enough moisture to do much more than a glorified dusting...Maybe one day I'll go chase something in May/June in the Dakotas or Rockies... I got about 3 and five miles up the road from me got 6 from last April. Insane after the March we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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