WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 FWIW: I have 925 panels and it's subfreezing from hr66 on. I can only pull IAD soundings. The only above freezing for the important part of the event is between surface and 975ish. Looks frozen from 950 on up through the good parts. No warm nose look or anything like that. That's probably ok then, but could easily be non-accumulating snow or RASN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That's probably ok then, but could easily be non-accumulating snow or RASN. The soundings over DCA would most likely support snow, and in the heavier frames it should accumulate for sure later on (if it really is ripping the way the euro shows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'd rather it fall during the day when you can actually see it instead of falling at night, accumulating a bit and have it be gone 5 minutes after the sun crests the horizon. I agree. Best case scenario ... get blasted about 2 hours before sunrise and continue with snow into the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think I know the answer, but is anyone feeling more optimistic after the Euro run? I know I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think I know the answer, but is anyone feeling more optimistic after the Euro run? I know I am. Well, I must say, the Euro was a run with a weird synoptic evolution overall, and because of that I have my doubts. Its hard to get a perfectly timed capture, especially because a true capture/stall is so hard to have happen. Climo argues if it is going to happen, the current time of the year is suitable for the solution. It does build confidence somewhat, but factors are always there to take into consideration: dynamics, rates, sun angle (it really does play a part), and climo as a whole says the Euro's snow numbers are a historic event (with regards to late season storms, etc. like 3/6 was phrased to be). You should be more confident, temperatures are not that bad even during the day on the Euro and if heavy precip is a player, you could cash in. Watch for model timing of initial precip, especially if it includings bringing in WAA related QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think I know the answer, but is anyone feeling more optimistic after the Euro run? I know I am. 9"+ imby on Palm Sunday? more like shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 9"+ imby on Palm Sunday? more like shocked I hope you get it Mitch. I just like seeing the uptick in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If this storm doesn't happen, I'm going to be upset at the models. If it does happen, I'll be upset at the meteorologists who have been saying that it won't happen (just take a look at the Twitter/FB world -- most meteorologists are nay-sayers at this point). Either way, I'll be upset. #snowloverproblems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I hope you get it Mitch. I just like seeing the uptick in precip. More precipitation modeled certainly delivers a larger window and a greater chance of heavy rates. The Euro solution is a dream run (temps permitting of course) for those desperate for snow concerning the capture; they just do not happen that much the way the 12z ECM models it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 More precipitation modeled certainly delivers a larger window and a greater chance of heavy rates. The Euro solution is a dream run (temps permitting of course) for those desperate for snow concerning the capture; they just do not happen that much the way the 12z ECM models it. Well, I can't really see much of the Euro, and I don't fully understand the whole idea of a capture. Could you explain what you see going on with the Euro. I'd like to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Right or wrong, all models had a similar look. Block slows the primary down, transfer takes longer than normal, and a much longer duration than normal backlash gets us pretty good. I think I'm only struggling with this because the "normal" way it happens is the waa falls apart and we get whiffed with secondary as the secondary skips on up the coast and destroys NYC-NE. No model takes the secondary on that type of course. I guess that's encouraging to help me believe that we can actually get a relatively significant backside precip event. Yea, it's daylight with nuclear fusion sun angle but it doesn't mean I can't enjoy the best period of rates I've seen all year. Silver lining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well, I can't really see much of the Euro, and I don't fully understand the whole idea of a capture. Could you explain what you see going on with the Euro. I'd like to learn. The simpleton version is the secondary gets turbocharged as it vacuums up the primary. And we just happen to be in the major sweet spot. Model porn considering the system type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The simpleton version is the secondary gets turbocharged as it vacuums up the primary. And we just happen to be in the major sweet spot. Model porn considering the system type. And the low stacks in the ML which helps slow it down and bring a quasi CCB into the area on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Appreciate it guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 9"+ imby on Palm Sunday? more like shocked no way you'd get 9" off that run even if it verified entirely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 no way you'd get 9" off that run even if it verified entirely imo. Agreed, the run is 4-6" for his area for that run this time of year. Now if we were in mid winter, sure, but we aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm just going to stick with a euro/gfs blend and use the nam as insurance so I fully expect the biggest event since Jan 2011. All I need is 2". I'm not counting snowlessfesturd. That entire event has been erased from the binary code of my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm just going to stick with a euro/gfs blend and use the nam as insurance so I fully expect the biggest event since Jan 2011. All I need is 2". I'm not counting snowlessfesturd. That entire event has been erased from the binary code of my memory. Which Euro? The 12z run or the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 no way you'd get 9" off that run even if it verified entirely imo. hey, add em' up I'm going on the Wunderground maps verbatim not sayin' they're right, just what they show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 hey, add em' up I'm going on the Wunderground maps verbatim not sayin' they're right, just what they show Ok then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS very similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS handoff is more believable than the Euro. Euro kinda just flips a switch with the coastal exploding immediately. Might be its bias to over deepen storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS handoff is more believable than the Euro. Euro kinda just flips a switch with the coastal exploding immediately. Might be its bias to over deepen storms. It's whatever model shows the least snow? Hug it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's whatever model shows the least snow? Hug it right? In essence yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS is basically par. Still an unusually long duration. Especially on the back. I'm really hoping it ends up hitting harder and over a shorter period of time. .6-.8 widespread. Surface is way iffy. Never gets below 1.0 @ dc/bwi. My yard and IAD get down to .5ish during 6z-12z. Not a bad panel for me. .27 at night with near freezing. I just want 2 dang inches. And it will be a fight for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Where are the clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Where are the clown maps? Even a clown could not bear to look at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 maue's euro clown map is pretty awesome. not sure why it shows nothing but it looks kinda right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yet another clown map for the GFS (at a smaller scale): It's called a clown map for a reason, but I'm bored and have nothing better to do, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 maue's euro clown map is pretty awesome. not sure why it shows nothing but it looks kinda right. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=94823'>426381_631194760231044_994689599_n.jpg Isn't that euro map giving snow only if the temp is 32 or lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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