TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm supposed to be driving in from BOS that day. Might have to consider leaving early, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 we have to have one storm that overperforms right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IIRC Euro nailed the temps for snowquester, so I'm not buying any accumulating snow with the surface 1-2 C on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM and GFS had the wrap around thing going so the models pretty much seem to be in agreement except for temps I guess we can still pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 yeah most of the area.. 8-12 east of the bay. of course it almost all comes during the day from backlash. :-/ I'd rather it fall during the day when you can actually see it instead of falling at night, accumulating a bit and have it be gone 5 minutes after the sun crests the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'd rather it fall during the day when you can actually see it instead of falling at night, accumulating a bit and have it be gone 5 minutes after the sun crests the horizon. Even if it means less accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think its 900-1200 feet depending on location. But snow fell that day to the valley floor in Albany...2.5" I believe. UAlbany's graduation had to be moved indoors. I know Knox is pretty high up...over 1500'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I enjoyed WxMan's detailed explanation regarding computer modeling. I actually looked up Ferrier microphysics and read a presentation presented to the EMC which described the Ferrier schema as being far more efficient computationally. If you remember, I made a smart-ass comment regarding "governement programmers" after the 3/6 bust (and apologize if I ruffled feathers), but I have to admit this stuff you guys are doing is fascinating. Thanks guys. Over the past 2 weeks I went from looking at the 3/6 event as a disappointment to an opportunity. An opportunity to take some valuable lessons from today's models, current physics, etc., and apply them to future similar event setups. We have to remind ourselves that we cannot go into an event with the idea that model A is the best (even with recent verification) and let's just ignore the others. We have to use them all. It's an ensemble approach -- it's always an ensemble approach --not just with the ensembles themselves, but the ensemble of deterministic runs as well. The key is to find the cluster of deterministic runs and ensemble clusters that appear to be on the right track comparatively -- while at the same time keeping in mind each of the model's weaknesses. The fine folks at EMC are continuing to test the new NAM (parallel version), and I've been told the performance is beating the operational NAM 9 out of 10 times. I can't wait to see it in operations, but we do need to be patient, considering the budgetary times we're in these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 we have to have one storm that overperforms right? Banking on a late March overperformer is like expecting to beat the house at roulette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IIRC Euro nailed the temps for snowquester, so I'm not buying any accumulating snow with the surface 1-2 C on the EURO. Euro was 1c too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'd rather it fall during the day when you can actually see it instead of falling at night, accumulating a bit and have it be gone 5 minutes after the sun crests the horizon. generally i agree tho timing is super critical at this point unless we're getting demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Thanks guys. Over the past 2 weeks I went from looking at the 3/6 event as a disappointment to an opportunity. An opportunity to take some valuable lessons from today's models, current physics, etc., and apply them to future similar event setups. We have to remind ourselves that we cannot go into an event with the idea that model A is the best (even with recent verification) and let's just ignore the others. We have to use them all. It's an ensemble approach -- it's always an ensemble approach --not just with the ensembles themselves, but the ensemble of deterministic runs as well. The key is to find the cluster of deterministic runs and ensemble clusters that appear to be on the right track comparatively -- while at the same time keeping in mind each of the model's weaknesses. The fine folks at EMC are continuing to test the new NAM (parallel version), and I've been told the performance is beating the operational NAM 9 out of 10 times. I can't wait to see it in operations, but we do need to be patient, considering the budgetary times we're in these days. Glad to hear the folks over at the EMC are experimenting with the parallel NAM and thrilled to hear it is performing well. There are those that say the NAM is completely useless in the winter, and I would only agree with that because there are other models that are far better for the situation. The same goes for using its current "version" for tropical cyclones; the model is better fit to analyze convective trends and mesoscale features, thus its name North American Mesoscale. The new upgrade will hopefully specialize on mesoscale features overall but also make it a competent piece of guidance for synoptic systems. It's MOS performs well, that is a bonus, though its not directly an asset of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm thinking the nam is going to be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wunderground Euro snow maps give me 9"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm thinking the nam is going to be ridiculous. The block near the Canadian Maritimes is really impressive on the NAM compared to 12z in the pre-storm panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The block near the Canadian Maritimes is really impressive on the NAM compared to 12z in the pre-storm panels. definitely colder this run thru 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Lots of precip forming at 54 but dicey with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 congrats DC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think this NAM run will be really, huge, but I don;t predict models or women very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This run of the NAM is an improvement over 12z, but it would be almost inappropriate of me to say it that way. It has "that look" us weather forecasters see and feel something big could be on deck. (and I have the panels already, but will let you guys play it out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Lots of precip forming at 54 but dicey with temps Just as dicey as before. 12z 63 out: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_063_10m_wnd_precip.gif 18z 57 out: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think this NAM run will be really, huge, but I don;t predict models or women very well Welcome back we missed you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 looks like it's gunna wait for the u/l energy to come east and recharge it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 lolnam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This run of the NAM is an improvement over 12z, but it would be almost inappropriate of me to say it that way. It has "that look" us weather forecasters see and feel something big could be on deck. (and I have the panels already, but will let you guys play it out.) What happened to you getting your tag?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 lolnam I do not trust a drop/flake of that front end stuff. That's one of the places where the NAM has been having a lot of trouble over the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I do not trust a drop/flake of that front end stuff. That's one of the places where the NAM has been having a lot of trouble over the past couple of months. MN, that is textbook NAM you're talking about. Hedging towards it probably overdoing that 9 times out of 10 is the right thing to do. Similar to what it did in the 3/6 system, and we do remember the outcome in that instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I do not trust a drop/flake of that front end stuff. That's one of the places where the NAM has been having a lot of trouble over the past couple of months. the nam has .75"+ in spots to our south from 18-0z where the Euro has like .02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The flow is distracted by the piece hanging down into the NE, making it more difficult for an "efficient" energy transfer to occur. If I had to put my money on something, I'd say the NAM will look much different at 0z, because in some ways it was almost an enormous run, and we don't have enough consistency with that blocking edging in over New England. Close to something legitimate rather than a disjointed 2 part system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The flow is distracted by the piece hanging down into the NE, making it more difficult for an "efficient" energy transfer to occur. If I had to put my money on something, I'd say the NAM will look much different at 0z, because in some ways it was almost an enormous run, and we don't have enough consistency with that blocking edging in over New England. Close to something legitimate rather than a disjointed 2 part system. my guess is the NAM will show something mostly different every run for the next 6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.