stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Lol the GGEM clown map has 11-15" for Baltimore: You know t hat's mm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Warm. Basically putting in a base on temps. The nice part about Monday was that we could actually drop during the snowfall. Now, we didn't get jack for precip, but at least it was snow and had the opportunity to stick. If we are 34 with a late March midday sun, we are SOL for accumulations outside of a quite heavy band. i think the main message for this storm (as modeled) is the column (especially in the first 1500 meters) is much cooler than with the last debacle....surface temps will dictate accumulation efficiency, but it's better than dealing with a rain/snow mix and 34/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think Storm Vista has the best maps but Accuweather Pro has better data, someone please correct me if I am wrong. SV maps come out much earlier than accwx. Accuwx has a pile of maps but you have to wait until after the run is done. But accuwx has real time text data. That is my favorite part. Since we're all focused on a postage stamp sized piece of real estate, maps can be tough on the eyes and text data really helps to go along side the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm all in for a foot of wrap around during the day in late March. I'll wrap a foot around the a$$ of any model that doesn't show the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 You know t hat's mm, right? Yes and that is 1.20-1.60 QPF in accumulating snow, it is obviously wrong but funny to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 You know t hat's mm, right? it's mm qpf. His numbers are close enough. 40 mm = 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'll wrap a foot around the a$$ of any model that doesn't show the most snow. NAM will have purple drank at 18z. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'd toss the storm for that. You have forsaken your snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM will have purple drank at 18z. Book it. It's friday. I'll get my drank on and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yes and that is 1.20-1.60 QPF in accumulating snow, it is obviously wrong but funny to see. oh, ok. I see what you did there now. And yeah, that's not gonna work out for any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's mm qpf. His numbers are close enough. 40 mm = 1.5" 40 MM=1.5748" to be exact . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i think the main message for this storm (as modeled) is the column (especially in the first 1500 meters) is much cooler than with the last debacle....surface temps will dictate accumulation efficiency, but it's better than dealing with a rain/snow mix and 34/35 That's a fair point, though I would say that even those of us far enough west that stayed snow for almost the entire Mar. 6th storm stopped accumulating pretty early in the morning, and that's with a few inches on the ground. 34 is not going to cut it Monday unless it is really coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 40 mm only has 2 sig figs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Does anyone have 950-850mb temps on the Euro? On March 6th, Euro verified about 1C too warm at the surface, so I can buy knocking 1C off those outputs this time. But, that still leaves us ~1C at the surface. If 975-950 is below freezing, that concerns me less. But if they're both still very near freezing, that gets a little dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'd toss the storm for that. Softball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That's a fair point, though I would say that even those of us far enough west that stayed snow for almost the entire Mar. 6th storm stopped accumulating pretty early in the morning, and that's with a few inches on the ground. 34 is not going to cut it Monday unless it is really coming down. This may do it if the Euro is right and sometimes it runs a little warm at the surface: TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.5 -5.9 1004 91 98 0.54 531 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Does anyone have 950-850mb temps on the Euro? On March 6th, Euro verified about 1C too warm at the surface, so I can buy knocking 1C off those outputs this time. But, that still leaves us ~1C at the surface. If 975-950 is below freezing, that concerns me less. But if they're both still very near freezing, that gets a little dicey. IF the Euro is right, and we knock off 1C we can be in business Monday night for something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The debate on specifics is fine but the Euro solution is probably wrong as is IMO. It's an outlier among its own runs if nothing else. I think it probably helps leave the door open but not much else at this point. We don't generally get snowstorms from the backside only. If the low isn't captured and then stacks at that precise time it's not going to happen as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 CWG says 30% chance of 1" or so in the city. (70% chance of less).http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/22/still-no-signs-of-big-snow-potential-from-sunday-monday-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The debate on specifics is fine but the Euro solution is probably wrong as is IMO. It's an outlier among its own runs if nothing else. I think it probably helps leave the door open but not much else at this point. We don't generally get snowstorms from the backside only. If the low isn't captured and then stacks at that precise time it's not going to happen as shown. Yep, as much as I like seeing the backside qpf it doesn't take that good of a memory to know how that usually works out. I'd be happier with a bigger slug of waa coming in at night or having the primary get out of the way 150 miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The debate on specifics is fine but the Euro solution is probably wrong as is IMO. It's an outlier among its own runs if nothing else. I think it probably helps leave the door open but not much else at this point. We don't generally get snowstorms from the backside only. If the low isn't captured and then stacks at that precise time it's not going to happen as shown. But the 0Z ensembles looked a lot more like today's 12Z. But like you said it is unlikely to end up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Does anyone have 950-850mb temps on the Euro? On March 6th, Euro verified about 1C too warm at the surface, so I can buy knocking 1C off those outputs this time. But, that still leaves us ~1C at the surface. If 975-950 is below freezing, that concerns me less. But if they're both still very near freezing, that gets a little dicey. Does anyone have 950-850mb temps on the Euro? On March 6th, Euro verified about 1C too warm at the surface, so I can buy knocking 1C off those outputs this time. But, that still leaves us ~1C at the surface. If 975-950 is below freezing, that concerns me less. But if they're both still very near freezing, that gets a little dicey. FWIW: I have 925 panels and it's subfreezing from hr66 on. I can only pull IAD soundings. The only above freezing for the important part of the event is between surface and 975ish. Looks frozen from 950 on up through the good parts. No warm nose look or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 its funny how the ECMWF is following the euro control. Euro control was amped at 00z and the Euro OP was flat and garbagy. Every model can be useful if used right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 You have forsaken your weenie. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This seems like a colder setup than Mar 6. Not as wet, but man, March 6 was warm. By about 11 AM that morning, I had snow falling through filtered sunlight and a temp of about 37-38 degrees. That won't work. There's a big difference when you have that deep cloud deck that blocks the sun and a temp of 34 is a lot different that one of 38. I really like the trend of the Euro. I'm starting to think there really is a chance of a decent snow here. Heck, maybe down low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Also, latest SREFS are wet and pretty cold. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 FWIW: I have 925 panels and it's subfreezing from hr66 on. I can only pull IAD soundings. The only above freezing for the important part of the event is between surface and 975ish. Looks frozen from 950 on up through the good parts. No warm nose look or anything like that. BobChill, the text for GAI is not overly warm for the pd 18z MON to 00z TUE. Sfc temps drop from 1.8 C at 18z (accompanied by .29" of QPF) to .8 at 00z with an additional .26 in that time frame. Not a lot of people realize how many METAR stations AW text data covers! 850's are cold which is certainly helpful, and soundings indicate the lack of a significant warm intrusion at the mid levels, meaning with rates (as we unfortunately have had to depend on in prior instances, accumulation is possible). I do feel the Euro temperatures do require some shaving at 2M, and overall this should be more snow than rain on the run. That is beside the fact that synoptically, I share the same opinion as Ian has stated, the evolution of this run is somewhat unlikely with regards to the overall scheme of things. The Euro did follow the GGEM this suite in terms of slowing the low and juicing up the precipitation, but on tonight's Euro don't expect to see a status quo solution. I don't like the primary hanging on as long as it does, and that is a major concern I have. All and all, snow will definitely be in the air, but I endorse the opinion Bob has stated numerous times, a bit of WAA precip certainly is not a detriment to your hopes of snow (and accumulating snow at that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's friday. I'll get my drank on and like it Already there. Just went to the Drafthouse and saw Olympus has fallen. Def not a movie to take your lady to.....Onto the storm. I was so negative yesterday. But just bring it at this point. Beer is a nice attitude adjuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Also, latest SREFS are wet and pretty cold. FWIW. Not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think a -600 AO and -2 nao are making the differnce in comaprison to march 6th. SE Canada and NY/PA is much much colder going into this one. If we had the same setup on March 6th it would have been 6"+ for all. Too bad we can even time something better than a broke clock twice a day. I mean seriously. If there isn't some un-divine intervention going on then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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