yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 988ish at 0z. probably one of the better runs of the euro in a while. the snow maps look great tho not sure how with the sfc temps. Its always fun to look at model snow How much fake snow are we looking at? 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 988ish at 0z. probably one of the better runs of the euro in a while. the snow maps look great tho not sure how with the sfc temps. IIRC, the Euro snow maps were pretty off for us on the 3/6 storm too, right? Like close-in, didn't they move the 4"+ zone eastward across DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Its always fun to look at model snow How much fake snow are we looking at? 4-8? yeah most of the area.. 8-12 east of the bay. of course it almost all comes during the day from backlash. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IIRC, the Euro snow maps were pretty off for us on the 3/6 storm too, right? Like close-in, didn't they move the 4"+ zone eastward across DC? yeah they were especially along the gradient. tho this hits pretty much everyone. the low bombs then sits there and backlashes us nicely. not sure i buy that still.. or that we go from almost no snow at 12z to a lot of snow at 0z with temps above freezing. either way it's 10:1 so you probably chop in half at least if you want to buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It does put down .5"+ in 6 hours east of the bay from 18z to 0z. Two panels of .25"+ for DC/Balt and east during the day. Perhaps one of the least likely ways to get a good snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Keeping it simple, a west to east 500 track which misses DC to the north is not a great track for most of us close-in, but it is really weak in later March. Euro is slightly south of the NAM/GFS with 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 yeah they were especially along the gradient. tho this hits pretty much everyone. the low bombs then sits there and backlashes us nicely. not sure i buy that still.. or that we go from almost no snow at 12z to a lot of snow at 0z with temps above freezing. either way it's 10:1 so you probably chop in half at least if you want to buy it. Ian, post some precip totals please. It's so frustrating trying to make heads or tails out of the Euro. I think I might pay next year. What's the most reasonable site with the best data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It does put down .5"+ in 6 hours east of the bay from 18z to 0z. Two panels of .25"+ for DC/Balt and east during the day. Perhaps one of the least likely ways to get a good snow event here. yea, dca is .32 & .31 with surface of 1.9 and 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Glancing at the precipitation type information from the GGEM, it shows rain beginning at ~9 PM changing to snow west of the Bay by 3 AM. Changing back to rain east of I-95 by 9 AM. As a poster noted earlier, the rain/snow line then sets up just to the NW of I-95 for much of Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This should make everyone happy: DCA: MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.9 -4.3 1003 97 99 0.16 536 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -3.7 1000 93 100 0.32 531 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.1 -5.9 1005 94 99 0.31 532 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -0.1 -4.9 1007 94 96 0.03 535 529 IAD: MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.0 1003 93 99 0.11 535 533 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.1 -4.6 1001 87 100 0.22 531 530 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.0 -6.1 1006 96 99 0.19 532 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR 0.0 -5.0 1007 96 91 0.02 535 529 Congrats Mitch (rates may actually work here): MON 12Z 25-MAR 1.4 -4.4 1003 92 100 0.12 537 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.0 -3.4 999 96 100 0.44 532 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.5 -5.9 1004 91 98 0.54 531 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR 0.7 -5.2 1006 88 93 0.04 534 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ian, post some precip totals please. It's so frustrating trying to make heads or tails out of the Euro. I think I might pay next year. What's the most reasonable site with the best data? .5"+ for just about everyone. .75"+ from about 30 miles NW of 95 and east. 1"+ almost to DC/BWI and east.. all of DE and eastern MD 1"+. .5"+ goes up into southern PA. Sfc low gets captured just about perfectly for spots east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I enjoyed your presentation and I'm glad that the MEG has at least given us a forum for communication between EMC and some of the other centers (particularly you guys at WPC and SPC). It has become pretty obvious this winter that the "dominant ptype" stuff leaves a lot to be desired and we really need to look at other things. Even in the 3/6 case where the NAM was too cold, there were clues that there were going to be issues (i.e. model output of % of frozen precip. being more in the 40-50% range). Hopefully we can get the Ferrier microphysics working in the GFS, so we can start pursuing more sophisticated algorithms (especially as we push the global to higher resolutions). I enjoyed WxMan's detailed explanation regarding computer modeling. I actually looked up Ferrier microphysics and read a presentation presented to the EMC which described the Ferrier schema as being far more efficient computationally. If you remember, I made a smart-ass comment regarding "governement programmers" after the 3/6 bust (and apologize if I ruffled feathers), but I have to admit this stuff you guys are doing is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 why does 00z Euro suck and 12z always bring it back strong? its done this 4 straight days. GGEM for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Damn, Euro is actually good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The one thing the euro didn't do that I was hoping for was bringing in heavier waa earlier at night. Depending on how things shake out in the hours after sunrise, maybe the surface cooperates a little better. Probably not but we did just have freezing temps during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 why does 00z Euro suck and 12z always bring it back strong? its done this 4 straight days. GGEM for the win? GGEM has about an inch of QPF for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 yeah most of the area.. 8-12 east of the bay. of course it almost all comes during the day from backlash. :-/ You fully on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 You fully on board? guess i can't totally write it off like i was planning on doing. i mean.. i kinda doubt this solution overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ian, post some precip totals please. It's so frustrating trying to make heads or tails out of the Euro. I think I might pay next year. What's the most reasonable site with the best data? I think Storm Vista has the best maps but Accuweather Pro has better data, someone please correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Here's what I don't like about the euro run - at the height of the precipitation (18z), the 32F dew point line is basically Warrenton to Leesburg to Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Here's what I don't like about the euro run - at the height of the precipitation (18z), the 32F dew point line is basically Warrenton to Leesburg to Westminster. What's the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Here's what I don't like about the euro run - at the height of the precipitation (18z), the 32F dew point line is basically Warrenton to Leesburg to Westminster. Probably hug the Euro warm bias.. at least till it loses this solution. Otherwise, we might get to enjoy mod snow at 36 that slushes the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 SBY with almost qpf of 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Good news: yay, it's friday night...I can actually stay up and wait for the 0z Euro Bad news: It's Friday night and I'm single, anticipating waiting up for a weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Lol the GGEM clown map has 11-15" for Baltimore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 What's the issue? Warm. Basically putting in a base on temps. The nice part about Monday was that we could actually drop during the snowfall. Now, we didn't get jack for precip, but at least it was snow and had the opportunity to stick. If we are 34 with a late March midday sun, we are SOL for accumulations outside of a quite heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Good news: yay, it's friday night...I can actually stay up and wait for the 0z Euro Bad news: It's Friday night and I'm single, anticipating waiting up for a weather model. I heard Tyson Beckford is coming over around 2 a.m. so you should be fine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hug the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm all in for a foot of wrap around during the day in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I heard Tyson Beckford is coming over around 2 a.m. so you should be fine . I'd toss the storm for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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