WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 in some respects...it also gave us 1.9" QPF in the last important pre-storm run which greatly influenced the bad collective forecasting...It would have been a lot easier to ignore the NAM if the GFS was more like the euro...still would have been some busting but not nearly as bad... Do you recall which run that was? I was discussing this with CoastalWx 10 days ago or so and I actually went back and looked at precip totals from the pre-storm runs. 12z on the 5th, GFS had DCA getting 1.25-1.5" (going off memory right now). Euro was like 1-1.1". Euro ended up being right on, but GFS wasn't far off. Maybe I'm getting DCA and BWI mixed up, but I don't remember GFS showing that much within 24 hours or so of storm-start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's kind of a shame that it's trending away from getting either a solid thump of waa precip or some kind of ccb stuff on the backside that happens within a 6 hour window. That's the dagger here. Well, that and the primary passing our latitude of course. Euro tossed some .4+ in 6hrs just a day or 2 ago. That's where we need to be either with waa or ccb. Still time I suppose. The real fun will happen when all models show a strung out mess and the coastal gets rockin early and gives us a going away present. One can dream right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Do you recall which run that was? I was discussing this with CoastalWx 10 days ago or so and I actually went back and looked at precip totals from the pre-storm runs. 12z on the 5th, GFS had DCA getting 1.25-1.5" (going off memory right now). Euro was like 1-1.1". Euro ended up being right on, but GFS wasn't far off. Maybe I'm getting DCA and BWI mixed up, but I don't remember GFS showing that much within 24 hours or so of storm-start. IMBY the wetter model was more correct. I had a final tally of 1.42" from that fail storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IMBY the wetter model was more correct. I had a final tally of 1.42" from that fail storm. Interesting. I think the QPF fail grew dramatically east of the Potomac. BWI was lower than either the NAM, GFS or Euro and my backyard was lower still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Can we please change the title of the thread to possible nuisance storm? At this point, what's the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 At this point, what's the difference? In that case, how 'bout "The March 25-March 32 QPF potential"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Do you recall which run that was? I was discussing this with CoastalWx 10 days ago or so and I actually went back and looked at precip totals from the pre-storm runs. 12z on the 5th, GFS had DCA getting 1.25-1.5" (going off memory right now). Euro was like 1-1.1". Euro ended up being right on, but GFS wasn't far off. Maybe I'm getting DCA and BWI mixed up, but I don't remember GFS showing that much within 24 hours or so of storm-start. 12z - suicide run 18z was 1.5-1.75 0z, was almost 2" almost everyone bumped up at ~10:45 pm after bumping up after 18z and it greatly affected the 11pm broadcasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Monday 12z GFS sounding for DC is snow. Freezing level is around 960mb and surface temp is probably 1C. Slowly warms toward 18z. 18z is probably rain unless it's ripping precip. BWI is warmer. I don't ever recall so many east-west gradients in low-level temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z - suicide run 18z was 1.5-1.75 0z, was almost 2" almost everyone bumped up at ~10:45 pm after bumping up after 18z and it greatly affected the 11pm broadcasts Ah ok. Makes sense. I was in bed before the 11pm news. I might have looked at 18z that day, but don't recall. Certainly saw 12z and thought it was reasonable given that it was in between the NAM and Euro. I had told friends and neighbors around Columbia to expect 6" of snow. After looking at the radar in the evening, hearing early reports from central and northern VA, and watching the short-term models go bonkers overnight, I went to bed at 10pm telling my wife that I think I was too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Will the new machine make any difference?. no. that's why they're doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Keeping it simple, a west to east 500 track which misses DC to the north is not a great track for most of us close-in, but it is really weak in later March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 no. that's why they're doing it. Run on back to the Philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Run on back to the Philly thread. 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Too bad. Models showed nice timing last night. Now it's an ugly midday deal. I guess models can still adjust the timing quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Too bad. Models showed nice timing last night. Now it's an ugly midday deal. I guess models can still adjust the timing quite a bit. The transfer was prog'd to be earlier. Now models show the primary hanging on longer and slows everything down. Would love to see the euro make a move back towards an earlier transfer but I think that idea slipping away at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The transfer was prog'd to be earlier. Now models show the primary hanging on longer and slows everything down. Would love to see the euro make a move back towards an earlier transfer but I think that idea slipping away at this point. I'm sure I have no idea what you're talking about. Every Euro run is identical to it's previous run. The Euro locks in at Day 10 and never wavers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 GGEM holds on to the idea of a powerful storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GGEM holds on to the idea of a powerful storm Snow/rain line is i-95 ofc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GGEM holds on to the idea of a powerful storm It's the GGEM. Real deal is in 15 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 UKIE at 72 has us around freezing... around 30 west of us. Precip is in the area, so I would guess snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's the GGEM. Real deal is in 15 mins or so. its not your ex girlfriends GGEM though. It got that upgrade and has been performing a close 2nd behind Euro. I think the new rankings are 1. Euro 2. GGEM 3. Ukmet 4. JMA 5. GFS:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 euro looks pretty meh still thru 6z mon.. ov low dominant. precip a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 coastal might be tucked in a smidge more at 12z.. slightly better precip SE VA.. sfc is warmish. 32 line elevation and nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 definitely west with the coastal at 18z (right off DE/MD shore) tho initially the ov low is stronger so it probably hurts first. tries to backlash DC to Balt during the day. nice white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 low stalls there thru 0z.. pretty wet DC/Balt and east.. .75"+ with more east of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 its not your ex girlfriends GGEM though. It got that upgrade and has been performing a close 2nd behind Euro. I think the new rankings are 1. Euro 2. GGEM 3. Ukmet 4. JMA 5. GFS:( Not really. What would be hilarious though is if the GGEM wins. There's a better chance of Marcus inviting me over to his place for dinner and a movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 low stalls there thru 0z.. pretty wet DC/Balt and east.. .75"+ with more east of the bay Heavy heavy snow. Hours and hours of snow. Total accum: Trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 low stalls there thru 0z.. pretty wet DC/Balt and east.. .75"+ with more east of the bay Looks like it deepens some... I think I see 990 around ACY or SBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like it deepens some... I think I see 990 around ACY or SBY? 988ish at 0z. probably one of the better runs of the euro in a while. the snow maps look great tho not sure how with the sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 988ish at 0z. probably one of the better runs of the euro in a while. the snow maps look great tho not sure how with the sfc temps. wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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