ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 well see if the GGEM upgrade has put it into elite status. This is a good test. It has been running slighty behind the ECMWF since its upgrade but blowing away the GFS. JMA is even beating the GFS +1 I am really curious to see how it does with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Verification scores don't mean a whole lot to me when it comes to winter storms in my backyard. ..or weather in general. I'd like to see verification scores for specific cities.. I'd wager DC is at the bottom of the list across the board. This area is extremely difficult to forecast given the geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Seriously, these guys are pros, not weenies. What are they seeing here. What models are they leaning on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Seriously, these guys are pros, not weenies. What are they seeing here. What models are they leaning on? clearly nam and gfs, to their peril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ..or weather in general. I'd like to see verification scores for specific cities.. I'd wager DC is at the bottom of the list across the board. This area is extremely difficult to forecast given the geography. yes...my model "bashing" is limited to what I know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The NAM isn't always the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm coming around to this conclusion myself. Too bad the GFS is so fickle as we get close to winter events. Instead of becoming more consistent with its forecasts (as we get closer), it seems to become more erratic. The problem for many of us wrt using the Euro for winter ideas is that the access is so limited it's as if it doesn't even exist. So, we are left with the GFS, NAM, and SREFS. Probably be best just to wait until Sunday night and look out the window. I have always thought the GFS does well for certain things...it has certainly beaten the euro a few times this winter with bigger scale features or ideas from a few days out....I know the SNE guys think it is terrible with winter storms up there, but probably not as bad here,,,Hopefully the upgrades will make it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I have always thought the GFS does well for certain things...it has certainly beaten the euro a few times this winter with bigger scale features or ideas from a few days out....I know the SNE guys think it is terrible with winter storms up there, but probably not as bad here,,,Hopefully the upgrades will make it better Yeah, upgrade coming in August I believe? I thought the GFS was better down here and just better than it actually is in general. Oh well. Ride the Euro is my game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 At the very least, the NAM has lost the ridiculous early solution from yesterday. zwyts will be happy to know that it is showing 40s Sunday afternoon instead of 30 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Judging by 51h on the 12Z NAM, we are about to get NAM'd again. I'm huggin' the NAM for dear life on this one - it's track record is impeccable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Judging by 51h on the 12Z NAM, we are about to get NAM'd again. I'm huggin' the NAM for dear life on this one - it's track record is impeccable! it's holding on to the Low near PIT too long for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's holding on to the Low near PIT too long for my liking Yeah...I spoke too soon. That does seem to be the trend across all models, and it's not a good one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's holding on to the Low near PIT too long for my liking We're toast on this one. Have been since 0z runs. Primary is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm not sold on the primary going so far north before giving into the secondary. If the secondary deepens just a little quicker it will take the wind out of the sails of the primary. This is still a very unresolved situation for our yards. I'm very realistic though. I have been all week. It's easy on the nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm not sold on the primary going so far north before giving into the secondary. If the secondary deepens just a little quicker it will take the wind out of the sails of the primary. This is still a very unresolved situation for our yards. I'm very realistic though. I have been all week. It's easy on the nerves. Truth. It's still evolving, but when the NAM doesn't even NAM you, it raises red flags. Blocking is supposed to be at historic levels, so maybe the models are driving the primary too far north. I mean, that's my weenie analysis and I'll stick to it. But for now, I'm still going all in with T-1" for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's also an obivious 2 part storm. We need the waa to do as much as possible while it's dark. The back side stuff will be snow but fighting daylight. It's still a fun storm. I'm looking forward to seeing snow fall and maybe get surprised with 1.5" accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Realistic or not, the NAM's surface temps are below freezing in our area overnight Sunday into Monday. Clown maps are 4-8". Yay us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The secondary track this time is much much better than no-fester. Decent chance at a real "band" or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Realistic or not, the NAM's surface temps are below freezing in our area overnight Sunday into Monday. Clown maps are 4-8". Yay us. Cut those totals in half and we will still throw the biggest party of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Cut those totals in half and we will still throw the biggest party of the year. I don't see any reason to not look forward to the storm. Yea, it's not perfect and it will be messy but we don't get opps like this very often at all this late in the year. In 3 weeks we'll be wearing shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I don't see any reason to not look forward to the storm. Yea, it's not perfect and it will be messy but we don't get opps like this very often at all this late in the year. In 3 weeks we'll be wearing shorts. I am with you totally, i will take 1-2 sloppy inches with snow flying in the air for an extended period any day of the week. This still will probably be our most exciting event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I am with you totally, i will take 1-2 sloppy inches with snow flying in the air for an extended period any day of the week. This still will probably be our most exciting event of the year. i dunno..it could easily be a 0.12 35 degree failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I am with you totally, i will take 1-2 sloppy inches with snow flying in the air for an extended period any day of the week. This still will probably be our most exciting event of the year. With proper expectations like this I think there is more upside than downside here. There could easily end up being a favorable precip max on the back side of the secondary. Not the best time of day but could be very fun nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i dunno..it could easily be a 0.12 35 degree failure It sure could if we get caught in the precip dead zone between the 2. Much will come down to the waa shot before the secondary. Get a good dose there and we're happy. If that is an epic fail then the secondary won't be able to save us unless there is divine intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, this has "sunny skies until about 3PM Sunday written all over it". And that translates into mid 40's (or perhaps worse) when precip starts. No trends that I can see look good. My expectations are that we wake Monday morning with a shallow coating of snow and it's down hill after that. I'm betting this past Monday will have been a better event when its said and done. If the NAM is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, this has "sunny skies until about 3PM Sunday written all over it". And that translates into mid 40's (or perhaps worse) when precip starts. No trends that I can see look good. My expectations are that we wake Monday morning with a shallow coating of snow and it's down hill after that. I'm betting this past Monday will have been a better event when its said and done. If the NAM is to be believed. This is our last dance brother. Pick up your instrument and let us play until the ship is submerged. We will play on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This is our last dance brother. Pick up your instrument and let us play until the ship is submerged. We will play on... 6z GFS has a nice storm on April 7th. Word on the street is Bob has taken a home equity loan out to go all in on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This is our last dance brother. Pick up your instrument and let us play until the ship is submerged. We will play on... he lives 75 miles west of us in elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, this has "sunny skies until about 3PM Sunday written all over it". And that translates into mid 40's (or perhaps worse) when precip starts. No trends that I can see look good. My expectations are that we wake Monday morning with a shallow coating of snow and it's down hill after that. I'm betting this past Monday will have been a better event when its said and done. If the NAM is to be believed. Well i did not even get a flurry from that event. The only thing i saw flying in the air was Bob Chill's barf after he got screwed. So i guarantee this event will be better for me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah, upgrade coming in August I believe? I thought the GFS was better down here and just better than it actually is in general. Oh well. Ride the Euro is my game. No, new machine in August. Next big upgrade (and it is really going to be big) is probably a year+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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