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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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I'm gonna say the Euro will be right.   I know, I know....large leap of faith

 

7 days is a long way off. not sure when everyone started having so much faith in getting a clear picture at this range.

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ric barely gets scraped. With the gfs tossing around an ohv redevelop idea I like having the euro stick with it's southern solutions. GFS led the way with the debacle at this range. time will tell

 

plenty of time for it to bump precip north so we think we have a chance when we don't.

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Might as well. Nothing to lose and its our final hurrah. One good thing about chasing models into Late March is it feels like a longer winter and when the pattern breaks, it could be mid April with only 2 months till we start losing daylite time again.

 

Initial thoughts...

 

Historic event coming up.  1942 type storm

 

DCA 8

IAD 12

JYO 16

Linden 62

 

http://www.wjla.com/pictures/2013/03/photos-vintage-d-c-snowstorms/logan-circle-snow-in-march-1942-30067-2049.html

Oh Ji you're such a weenie.

Whatever we get, March '42 with its 22" in Baltimore will be really hard to beat.

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I'm all in with the believers.  It's been so cold the last couple of weeks - may as well get something fun out of this pattern before climo really makes it an impossible situation. A nice little 3-6" event, with some good precip rates would be just fine.  And as remote a chance as it may be, the possibility of something is at least on the table.

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plenty of time for it to bump precip north so we think we have a chance when we don't.

 

pretty much. but I know how you view these h5 setups and I share similar thoughts. It may be a big bustola but you should never go to sleep on it. 

 

imo- 12z euro is a big step towards the gfs @ h5. vort briefly closes off over tx panhandle. It just opens back up through the se. trough has a nice neutral look but it gets shoved ots again under strong confluence over NE. 

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I was just about to ask...there's a storm after that one?

 

Only 10 days away!!!

 

It's pretty sweet too. Big bowling ball over tn/ky that is poised to track right over head. Looks like a big batch of waa snow and then extrapolated wallop with the ull energy. 

 

I just bundled all my all ins from the entire season and put them into one big f'n bag of ALL IN. 

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As someone who has been known to trot out the gfs ens members, I have to say the consistency overall of the solutions at 156 is impressive.

 

All jokes aside, the gfs schooled the euro at this range with snowlessaddernquester. It just blew it at the end. At this range with that storm the euro was still taking it off the coast of cuba 

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I just looked at GFS... this is unadulterated nonsense.  I have never seen so much model snow in my life... why are they doing this to us?  Why?  I need to work this week... I need to get stuff done.. I can't take this anymore.  

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All jokes aside, the gfs schooled the euro at this range with snowlessaddernquester. It just blew it at the end. At this range with that storm the euro was still taking it off the coast of cuba 

I think at this timeline it was actually the opposite.  I recall the GFS had a snowstorm for Myrtle Beach at 150 hours out while the Euro was showing a NC/VA hit.  The they both adjusted north in between day 4-5 into relative agreement.

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I think at this timeline it was actually the opposite. I recall the GFS had a snowstorm for Myrtle Beach at 150 hours out while the Euro was showing a NC/VA hit. The they both adjusted north in between day 4-5 into relative agreement.

I think you both may be right. Seems they both had a pretty far south solution, and the GFS first started the north solution with the Euro stubbornly clinging to its suppressed solution. I could be wrong but that's my memory of it.

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I think you both may be right. Seems they both had a pretty far south solution, and the GFS first started the north solution with the Euro stubbornly clinging to its suppressed solution. I could be wrong but that's my memory of it.

 

you guys are right. My memory is failing me. 

 

This setup is different anyway. There is no nasty closed ull in the upper midwest this time. It digs through the rockies and doesn't close until tx-ok area. Which is actually much better for us anyways. March 6th was a very anomalous type of storm. Having the ull pass below us on a track like takes a pretty sick blocking setup to the N. 

 

The euro and gfs moved closer together today @ h5. It was nice seeing the euro have a closed low over the tx panhandle even though it went too far underneath. Heck, we can't even rule out a full blown cutter at this point. 

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It's pretty sweet too. Big bowling ball over tn/ky that is poised to track right over head. Looks like a big batch of waa snow and then extrapolated wallop with the ull energy. 

 

I just bundled all my all ins from the entire season and put them into one big f'n bag of ALL IN. 

Great!   2 more inches and I break my model snow record.

 

MDstorm

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pretty much. but I know how you view these h5 setups and I share similar thoughts. It may be a big bustola but you should never go to sleep on it. 

 

imo- 12z euro is a big step towards the gfs @ h5. vort briefly closes off over tx panhandle. It just opens back up through the se. trough has a nice neutral look but it gets shoved ots again under strong confluence over NE. 

 

yeah the ultimate positioning by like 168 is a good one historically tho now i feel like i need to go back and look more at how they enter the region. not sure it's as good when they push in from such a far north starting point. i also wouldn't be surprised to see it come further north.. tho the euro so far south guess we don't need to worry about that too much yet. 

 

my guess re: the euro is that there won't be two blockbuster storms in such proximity.

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Decent or crappy precip?

.5"+ liquid up 95. looks like a late season event with elevation and new england favored. the low is east of usual for good in those spots but im guessing there are some west of the mean.

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yeah the ultimate positioning by like 168 is a good one historically tho now i feel like i need to go back and look more at how they enter the region. not sure it's as good when they push in from such a far north starting point. i also wouldn't be surprised to see it come further north.. tho the euro so far south guess we don't need to worry about that too much yet. 

 

my guess re: the euro is that there won't be two blockbuster storms in such proximity.

 

The part that makes it easy with this is being so late in the year. If things get all munged up in the next 4 days or so at least we don't have to worry about chasing scraps. Easy to write off unless it goes down just right. 

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