Benchmark Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Too early. Just started running. Ahh forgot about daylight savings... used to winter hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro OTS off the Carolinas. Around 980mb. Not sure if we get anything...doesn't sound like it from the NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 looks better than last night but still ots after snowing on the carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm gonna say the Euro will be right. I know, I know....large leap of faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm gonna say the Euro will be right. I know, I know....large leap of faith 7 days is a long way off. not sure when everyone started having so much faith in getting a clear picture at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ric barely gets scraped. With the gfs tossing around an ohv redevelop idea I like having the euro stick with it's southern solutions. GFS led the way with the debacle at this range. time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ric barely gets scraped. With the gfs tossing around an ohv redevelop idea I like having the euro stick with it's southern solutions. GFS led the way with the debacle at this range. time will tell plenty of time for it to bump precip north so we think we have a chance when we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Ian trolling the believers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Might as well. Nothing to lose and its our final hurrah. One good thing about chasing models into Late March is it feels like a longer winter and when the pattern breaks, it could be mid April with only 2 months till we start losing daylite time again. Initial thoughts... Historic event coming up. 1942 type storm DCA 8 IAD 12 JYO 16 Linden 62 http://www.wjla.com/pictures/2013/03/photos-vintage-d-c-snowstorms/logan-circle-snow-in-march-1942-30067-2049.html Oh Ji you're such a weenie. Whatever we get, March '42 with its 22" in Baltimore will be really hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm all in with the believers. It's been so cold the last couple of weeks - may as well get something fun out of this pattern before climo really makes it an impossible situation. A nice little 3-6" event, with some good precip rates would be just fine. And as remote a chance as it may be, the possibility of something is at least on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I've seen mention of 1958 and 1942. I don't know anything about those storms, but I do have a question about them. Were they considered once in 50 year storms, once in a 100? I think March 1993 was considered one in a hundred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 plenty of time for it to bump precip north so we think we have a chance when we don't. pretty much. but I know how you view these h5 setups and I share similar thoughts. It may be a big bustola but you should never go to sleep on it. imo- 12z euro is a big step towards the gfs @ h5. vort briefly closes off over tx panhandle. It just opens back up through the se. trough has a nice neutral look but it gets shoved ots again under strong confluence over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 i just finished looking at the euro and realized another hecs in on tap for the 28th. I'll start a thread tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 i just finished looking at the euro and realized another hecs in on tap for the 28th. I'll start a thread tomorrow. I was just about to ask...there's a storm after that one? Only 10 days away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I was just about to ask...there's a storm after that one? Only 10 days away!!! It's pretty sweet too. Big bowling ball over tn/ky that is poised to track right over head. Looks like a big batch of waa snow and then extrapolated wallop with the ull energy. I just bundled all my all ins from the entire season and put them into one big f'n bag of ALL IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Lol The EURO Day 10 setup looks like a mid January storm, if it ran past 10 days it would annihilate the entire EC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 As someone who has been known to trot out the gfs ens members, I have to say the consistency overall of the solutions at 156 is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I was just about to ask...there's a storm after that one? Only 10 days away!!! It may be a 2/6-2/10 redux all over again, wax your err shovels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 As someone who has been known to trot out the gfs ens members, I have to say the consistency overall of the solutions at 156 is impressive. All jokes aside, the gfs schooled the euro at this range with snowlessaddernquester. It just blew it at the end. At this range with that storm the euro was still taking it off the coast of cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I just looked at GFS... this is unadulterated nonsense. I have never seen so much model snow in my life... why are they doing this to us? Why? I need to work this week... I need to get stuff done.. I can't take this anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 All jokes aside, the gfs schooled the euro at this range with snowlessaddernquester. It just blew it at the end. At this range with that storm the euro was still taking it off the coast of cuba I think at this timeline it was actually the opposite. I recall the GFS had a snowstorm for Myrtle Beach at 150 hours out while the Euro was showing a NC/VA hit. The they both adjusted north in between day 4-5 into relative agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think at this timeline it was actually the opposite. I recall the GFS had a snowstorm for Myrtle Beach at 150 hours out while the Euro was showing a NC/VA hit. The they both adjusted north in between day 4-5 into relative agreement. I think you both may be right. Seems they both had a pretty far south solution, and the GFS first started the north solution with the Euro stubbornly clinging to its suppressed solution. I could be wrong but that's my memory of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think you both may be right. Seems they both had a pretty far south solution, and the GFS first started the north solution with the Euro stubbornly clinging to its suppressed solution. I could be wrong but that's my memory of it. you guys are right. My memory is failing me. This setup is different anyway. There is no nasty closed ull in the upper midwest this time. It digs through the rockies and doesn't close until tx-ok area. Which is actually much better for us anyways. March 6th was a very anomalous type of storm. Having the ull pass below us on a track like takes a pretty sick blocking setup to the N. The euro and gfs moved closer together today @ h5. It was nice seeing the euro have a closed low over the tx panhandle even though it went too far underneath. Heck, we can't even rule out a full blown cutter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's pretty sweet too. Big bowling ball over tn/ky that is poised to track right over head. Looks like a big batch of waa snow and then extrapolated wallop with the ull energy. I just bundled all my all ins from the entire season and put them into one big f'n bag of ALL IN. Great! 2 more inches and I break my model snow record. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 pretty much. but I know how you view these h5 setups and I share similar thoughts. It may be a big bustola but you should never go to sleep on it. imo- 12z euro is a big step towards the gfs @ h5. vort briefly closes off over tx panhandle. It just opens back up through the se. trough has a nice neutral look but it gets shoved ots again under strong confluence over NE. yeah the ultimate positioning by like 168 is a good one historically tho now i feel like i need to go back and look more at how they enter the region. not sure it's as good when they push in from such a far north starting point. i also wouldn't be surprised to see it come further north.. tho the euro so far south guess we don't need to worry about that too much yet. my guess re: the euro is that there won't be two blockbuster storms in such proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 euro ens mean is much further north with the storm off the coast.. climbs decently offshore but still precips us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 euro ens mean is much further north with the storm off the coast.. climbs decently offshore but still precips us. Decent or crappy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Decent or crappy precip? .5"+ liquid up 95. looks like a late season event with elevation and new england favored. the low is east of usual for good in those spots but im guessing there are some west of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah the ultimate positioning by like 168 is a good one historically tho now i feel like i need to go back and look more at how they enter the region. not sure it's as good when they push in from such a far north starting point. i also wouldn't be surprised to see it come further north.. tho the euro so far south guess we don't need to worry about that too much yet. my guess re: the euro is that there won't be two blockbuster storms in such proximity. The part that makes it easy with this is being so late in the year. If things get all munged up in the next 4 days or so at least we don't have to worry about chasing scraps. Easy to write off unless it goes down just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 .5"+ liquid up 95. looks like a late season event with elevation and new england favored. the low is east of usual for good in those spots but im guessing there are some west of the mean. this all sounds so familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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