Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The mean is cold and fairly wet. I don't trust those things though. They really haven't done well, IMO. I was watching taped WC coverage of Mar 6, and they were using a model that started with an R? I can't remember exactly but it nailed what happened on Mar 6 from the early demise of the heavy bands to what happened in Richmond. RPM model? Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily take it to mean anything. There is quite a bit of spread by that point as you can see in the fills. I'm sure there are members that look like the NAM etc. Could be the RPM tho the RPM was also forecasting like 18" of snow in DC the night it was getting underway.. remember them breathlessly talking about how they'd have to up their snow totals before the mad rush began. I want to believe.. I really do. A day like today should have some payoff other than light cold rain or a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it is too bad too, because the blocking pattern is so anomalous....in a better winter we might actually get a decent NW event.....we still could but i think no reason to ditch the euro...T-2" seems like a good ballpark for DC metro with 1-3" for others out west Yeah seems possible. Most winters have set patterns that keep repeating to a degree. Us getting the shaft while places north get crushed makes a lot more sense than us having some magical storm a few days before our summer usually starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah seems possible. Most winters have set patterns that keep repeating to a degree. Us getting the shaft while places north get crushed makes a lot more sense than us having some magical storm a few days before our summer usually starts. call it coincidence, but I always like seeing a late season event on the chance it may mean something for the following season ala 2/94, 3/99, and 3/1/09 but this year's pattern was set early on and just would not break in our favor ehh, wtf, in a few weeks it all means nothing and everyone is back to mud and pollen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I have plenty of doubt that the nam just picked up new details irt to the Ull over ne allowing a later transfer and n track. Transfers like this are far far from the nam's specialty. Especially past 48 hrs. Imo- the gfs won't waver significantly from its last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Gfs looks good through 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Uh oh, GFS looks to be going towards the NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Appears to be less amped this run with the H5 not digging quite as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS quicker and less amped than 18z. Overall very close to 18z, though. Woops, after 66 it starts coming back north cause the 50/50 kicked a little NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Tiny megaband for N VA on GFS at 72 and 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 this run sucks next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Tiny megaband for N VA on GFS at 72 and 75 That band has 3 years worth of snow for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 this run sucks next I knew it, early on you could see we would get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I knew it, early on you could see we would get screwed. it still ends up ok nw at least but writing is writing itself on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 this run sucks next Your saying next on march 26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it still ends up ok nw at least but writing is writing itself on the wall Yup, unless the Euro shows something different we are finished down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Uh huh... so GFS says it takes a day to transfer... right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's pretty wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Your saying next on march 26? arent you supposed to be starting the april 3 hecs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's pretty wet... I'm going T - 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 1" of QPF for a lot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Not a bad run. 2 low thing weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's pretty wet... prob half is snow though re temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm going T - 1" I'm going 3 flakes-T, like Ian said I think the writing is on the wall. Sorry to be a Deb and I hope I am wrong but it's not looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 1" of QPF for a lot of us We need qpf. We got the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 prob half is snow though re temps it is quite a bit more than that....not sure what pct snow...the primary track and strength is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it is quite a bit more than that....not sure what pct snow...the primary track and strength is not good Track needs to be further west with the primary... 996 in WV blows for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 534 closed ull over us though. Just don't want another .22 ****storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Just started to look thru the thread. We have cold and no precip but Boston will cash in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IAD gets .42 from 0-6z. There's your rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Next ...may 3 storm may have bl issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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