midatlanticweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Clown maps actually look much better for DC than Baltimore. Post them. Someone has to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 they are being overly cautious based on the march 6th bust and the backlash...... not sure there are any new reasons today to raise it. in this situation no real reason to go big yet. there may be a greater than 2 in 10 shot of .1"+ .. but most people don't take the digit as defined. not sure it's really totally useful with that current definition anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 they are being overly cautious based on the march 6th bust and the backlash...... Ya but 2 is usually for a .09 clipper that's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 not sure there are any new reasons today to raise it. in this situation no real reason to go big yet. there may be a greater than 2 in 10 shot of .1"+ .. but most people don't take the digit as defined. not sure it's really totally useful with that current definition anyway. Is that what 2 means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Matt are you staying up for the Euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Posted by Ryan Maue on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Does JB draw these up in his basement?, why do they always look much better than the instant weather ones?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS snow maps are a lot better than I thought...but then again...clown maps. I bet we get super NAM'd by 6z or 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 lol...no it wont be in range until 2:15-2:30.....go to bed...you can see the 0.35" and warm BL when you wake up Lol it's a sickness even though I have to be up at 6:30 in the morning, I am dying to see if it goes the way of the other globals tonight. Hopefully either Ian or Bob will be up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Even if it dosent stick...24 hours of snow falling is cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Jason has been spooked by march 6th a bit I think....it's too bad since the detractors are some of the stupidest people on earth.... If they are going to use the SPI as defined it should be a 4 at a minimum and probably a 5 or 6.....if they think the SPI is going to be misconstrued then just dont use it even earlier in the year i gave a 9 on a day where every airport got accum and people were all freaking out it was a 9. so.. im not sure it's the greatest scale ever. but camden went with a two.. he asked about it. based on jason's post earlier with wes' comments.. didn't see a need to up it based on anything new (which is all arguably worse than earlier runs despite QPF or snowmaps) so i left it. but if you were just giving probability straight up, your odds are seemingly fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The GGEM is a monster 988 off of OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 .3-.5" precip. 85% of which occur during daylight hours Monday. BL temps still above freezing but only to 33-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro is lame. All daytime snow. No accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 looks like GFS fold to the euro. Euro wins again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 looks like GFS fold to the euro. Euro wins again lol Hey now, the nam hasn't folded yet. We all know what that means, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow, the soundings aren't terrible 6z gfs even at hr.66. The timing also remains near perfect. If we could only get some heavier rates and a compliant EURO then we will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Anybody gonna say they like the trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the CWG isn't sticking to the original definition of the SPI, I think they should redefine it, then. It's really confusing people who actually know what it means. The WPC has about an 80% chance of 2" or more for DC, by the way (though I think they rely too heavily on the GFS/NAM). Also, it probably doesn't take the 6z into account as it was issued at around 2 am. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hsnow_ge02_2013032212f072_sm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This Storm is like groundhog day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the CWG isn't sticking to the original definition of the SPI, I think they should redefine it, then. It's really confusing people who actually know what it means. The WPC has about an 80% chance of 2" or more for DC, by the way (though I think they rely too heavily on the GFS/NAM). Also, it probably doesn't take the 6z into account as it was issued at around 2 am. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hsnow_ge02_2013032212f072_sm.gif I don't place any faith on those maps, but I do give credence to the forecaster maps. They were issued after the Euro and are pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wunderground Euro snow maps show nothing for DCA/BWI they were right on 3/6 when they showed nothing....just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wunderground Euro snow maps show nothing for DCA/BWI they were right on 3/6 when they showed nothing....just saying They had nothing for Richmond, either. And areas down there got a few inches... just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 They had nothing for Richmond, either. And areas down there got a few inches... just saying. I'll take the bet if you think they will be wrong on this event you guys had the 5H low right over you, a meso feature that a global will rarely see iow, you got lucky because the Wunderground Euro snow maps have been more right than wrong thru the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the CWG isn't sticking to the original definition of the SPI, I think they should redefine it, then. It's really confusing people who actually know what it means. The WPC has about an 80% chance of 2" or more for DC, by the way (though I think they rely too heavily on the GFS/NAM). Also, it probably doesn't take the 6z into account as it was issued at around 2 am. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hsnow_ge02_2013032212f072_sm.gif These probabilities are 3/4 SREF weighted, and are auto generated once the WWD forecaster sends his deterministic guidance out to the field internally (WFOs and RFCs). http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 These probabilities are 3/4 SREF weighted, and are auto generated once the WWD forecaster sends his deterministic guidance out to the field internally (WFOs and RFCs). http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml Brian, My own perception is that more often then not, the product has the probabilities too high for the various thresholds. I'm not sure my perceptions are true or not. Has Keith verified them so users can check to see how well they are calibrated? Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hi Wes, Yes, they have verified with a high bias over the years, but the perception is they will probably show better verification after this season given all the big events (particularly in the NE). I think overall they suffer more in the marginal events, given 1) the NAM's tendency (and thus the NMB members that make up 1/3 of the SREF) to be too wet into the cold air, and 2) when there are boundary layer concerns. Ironically, the WPC final 10/40/70% probabilities historically have shown little if any improvement over these prelim ones. Often times we see a 50% threshold and while that seems high, it would also indicate that 5/10 or 50/100 of such events would not verify statistically. We have learned quite a bit over the past couple weeks via post analyses and collaboration with EMC in terms of the model's calculation of snowfall. It's actually kind of scary, honestly, during marginal BL events. I actually had an opportunity to present our (WPC's) perspective of the 3/6 event at EMC's weekly MEG meeting yesterday, highlighting these very issues. There are events as we've discovered on March 6th that there is a huge difference in marginal BL conditions between snow "fall" and the actual snow "depth". The models struggle with this...or as I should say (and concluded after the 3/6 storm)...WE as forecasters struggle sometimes with interpretating and differentiating between the various model snow accumulation output via various algorithms and techniques when the SFC and BL temps are so marginal. It's as if some of these maps represent snow that "would have" accumulated had the BL been sufficiently cold. The 'ol snow that melts once it falls dilemma. We have seen much success with some of the experimental percent of frozen precip and rime-filtered SLR output from the NAM this past season. Again though, it's still the NAM, so if the NAM is too cold, then even these products will struggle as on 3/6. At least it can raise some red flags though when the BL is marginal, and/or when there is an elevated warm layer. Hopefully next year we can get this into the GFS, but right now it only works with Ferrier microphysics (i.e. NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ohv transfers are bad. Bad for models. Bad for weenie nerves. And bad for dc snow. I'll stick with 1-3 for 95 West but now with daytime snow, elevation has gained a big upper hand. This doesn't include my yard. Models are far from done. It can still go either way. History of events like this + calendar spring means the wrong way is favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 00zeuro has been horrible the past 3 nights but rebounds at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.