NeffsvilleWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Or how about >8" probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Those maps suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Those maps suck Yes they do, and the chances of 8" are probably -10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like NWS is going with the Goofus: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I dunno, everything is speculative still. Getting a proper handoff in primetime is tricky. We basically need everything near perfect here. Until the euro is more aboard hard to be too convinced. GFS and nam play tricks in this range often. Further west probably closer to locking in something worthwhile. Either way I almost never assume things will trend right for me. That is usually a wise course for DC and in late March it is especially true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yes they do, and the chances of 8" are probably -10%. -10%? Someone's got their weenie goggles on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That is usually a wise course for DC and in late March it is especially true. Even weenie Wes is getting a little excited for this one. If at any point before this storm you are up for the 0Z GFS then I will get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 -10%? Someone's got their weenie goggles on Guess you couldn't tell I was joking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Those maps suck I agree. But I don't think the forecaster generated maps do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well you know, one person at LWX writing a discussion determines the weather. So..yeah...storm cancel. LWX has had like 50" of busted snow since 2009, including earlier this month. I agree with you (your sarcasm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Several years ago there was a ~March 30/31 snow storm that dumped ~8 inches of snow at New Germany State Park, where I was staying in a cabin. It was 70 degrees on Saturday and by Sunday morning it was 25 with 8 inches on the ground. The NWS downplayed the storm all week due to the time of year despite the model's being bullish. Heading east I saw snow on the ground until I reached Frederick. Anyone who believes it is too warm for snow on the coastal plain show step outside this evening. Hopefully, the transfer will occur before we are flooded with warm air in advance of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Several years ago there was a ~March 30/31 snow storm that dumped ~8 inches of snow at New Germany State Park, where I was staying in a cabin. It was 70 degrees on Saturday and by Sunday morning it was 25 with 8 inches on the ground. The NWS downplayed the storm all week due to the time of year despite the model's being bullish. Heading east I saw snow on the ground until I reached Frederick. Anyone who believes it is too warm for snow on the coastal plain show step outside this evening. Hopefully, the transfer will occur before we are flooded with warm air in advance of the primary. Must be partly because of Snowquester. Forecasting 4-6" of snow a couple of hours before the storm wrapped up was definitely a blow to their credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It can snow but that's an entirely different tale than it will snow. LWX is perfectly reasonable at this point. No one legit will forecast a snow event of any size around 95 till at least Saturday if not later. Climo is a huge problem for this one around DC... way huger than normal. It might happen. We're probably due in some ways. But it can also not happen very very very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It can snow but that's an entirely different tale than it will snow. LWX is perfectly reasonable at this point. No one legit will forecast a snow event of any size around 95 till at least Saturday if not later. Climo is a huge problem for this one around DC... way huger than normal. It might happen. We're probably due in some ways. But it can also not happen very very very easily. Its about going against all odds...it must happen..odds say no..but sure seems it wants to be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It can snow but that's an entirely different tale than it will snow. LWX is perfectly reasonable at this point. No one legit will forecast a snow event of any size around 95 till at least Saturday if not later. Climo is a huge problem for this one around DC... way huger than normal. It might happen. We're probably due in some ways. But it can also not happen very very very easily. Nobody can argue that logic. But I think you'd even agree that this is a pretty anomalous pattern we find ourselves in. It's almost 3 weeks later, but in some ways this is a better setup than March 6. To me the temp forecasts are probably pretty solid on the models. Even if they are a degree or two off, timing and good precip probably overcomes the calendar on this one. The Euro being much drier gives me reason to be skeptical though. The only problem I had with the LWX statement is that it was very definitive. I don't think anybody can be that set on this even if the odds are against snow at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Its about going against all odds...it must happen..odds say no..but sure seems it wants to be.. It's only a hundred+ years but that's a solid enough record to know it's almost impossible to get anything more than that t-1" range in DC from here out. Would be interesting if somehow we did get a big one as 1942 only had 2.2" winter to date before the late Mar event. If hoping could get us snow we'd have a whole lot of snow. I started to sort of believe in the chance a bit more today but I should probably just slap myself silly ... tho the 0z runs could work there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's only a hundred+ years but that's a solid enough record to know it's almost impossible to get anything more than that t-1" range in DC from here out. Would be interesting if somehow we did get a big one as 1942 only had 2.2" winter to date before the late Mar event. If hoping could get us snow we'd have a whole lot of snow. I started to sort of believe in the chance a bit more today but I should probably just slap myself silly ... tho the 0z runs could work there. The early 0Z runs will be great, it's Dr. No that will screw us and I am tempted to wait up until 2:15 tonight to get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Another NAM'ing incoming it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM looks very similar to 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Another NAM'ing incoming it looks like If only this model was right once in our lives we could all die happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Maybe some mixing? ANd a little drier? This I can believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM looks very similar to 12z CMC Colder than the Canadian though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks slower overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 funny how you guys who rip the nam all day are the first to post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks slower overall Slower purple drank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i havent really looked at prior nam runs but for mby... 500 low super north and that ov low is super strong. all we need is the waa thump to start falling apart and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Maybe some mixing? ANd a little drier? This I can believe. Don't see any mixing but it's the NAM so who the hell cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Definite ptype issues down my way with this run. Not as good a run for me. Primary goes further north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Shifting on up to New England. I was close Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 funny how you guys who rip the nam all day are the first to post about it. Funny how the first model of the new suite comes out and people on a weather board talk about it regarding weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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