hosj III Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Well if you think about it..this threat has been showing since last Sunday or so..and its changed from a bomb to crap..to now what seems to be trending back to a stronger storm..so all it may do is get better and grab more qpf..what say you..? http://fc00.deviantart.net/fs71/i/2011/132/d/c/me_gusta_by_projectendo-d2z3rku.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'm not biting til the euro is on board, been screwed too many times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'd go for a "SECS," which would affect the entire East Coast EXCEPT the immediate DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 In like a lion, out like a lion that hasn't eaten for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Gotta keep your fingers crossed and hope surface can shed a degree. We're all asking for a lot here until you get 15-20 miles west of 95. Timing is starting to lock in as mostly an overnight deal. I hope the euro loses some of the long duration strung out stuff. MON 00Z 25-MAR 1.1 -3.5 0.06 544 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -5.9 0.16 538 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.4 -5.2 0.28 535 535 Thanks, still looking a lot better than it was this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 So are we ruling out the chance of a big Miller A HECS? We're meeting in about 45 minutes to take up a vote. We'll keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Is that real? Because I see another Uberbust coming. You have no need to be here then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The thing about this one is, it does have a relatively cold pool to tap, unlike "sno/noquester" when it was like 70 in Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 You have no need to be here then. So far, the newb is rolling snake eyes on his postings. I think he'll improve with trial by fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The thing about this one is, it does have a relatively cold pool to tap, unlike "sno/noquester" when it was like 70 in Montreal. The Canadian ice hockey team was playing water polo during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 So far, the newb is rolling snake eyes on his postings. I think he'll improve with trial by fire. Seriously, chill dude. Why do all the vets assume it is their divine duty to harass the n00bs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Is it fair to say that if this thing deepens more rapidly or the transfer happens quicker, it will be stronger and closer to the coast or at least may ride the coast a bit more..thus giving a stronger colder BL and more QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Soundings for the city (DC) are all snow with surface temp 32-33. Ends warm when the precipitation lightens along with the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Soundings for the city (DC) are all snow with surface temp 32-33. Ends warm when the precipitation lightens along with the sun angle. We know already... posted above by Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 This clown map says 6", for what that's worth.http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=18&fhour=90¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like an I95 and west type of event irt surface temps. Really close in town. Show me a march event that was I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If I was in SNE I would be expecting another foot of snow, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We know already... posted above by Bob Chill I was going by what I could get from Twister. If it is the same info only delayed, then I thank you for pointing that out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Well if you think about it..this threat has been showing since last Sunday or so..and its changed from a bomb to crap..to now what seems to be trending back to a stronger storm..so all it may do is get better and grab more qpf..what say you..? I dunno, everything is speculative still. Getting a proper handoff in primetime is tricky. We basically need everything near perfect here. Until the euro is more aboard hard to be too convinced. GFS and nam play tricks in this range often. Further west probably closer to locking in something worthwhile. Either way I almost never assume things will trend right for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Show me a march event that was I-95 and east. Enjoy your last few moments of posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Enjoy your last few moments of posting. I asked a reasonable question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I don't think it is that unlikely at all for DCA to get 1-2 inches. I'm just hoping for a streak-buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Show me a march event that was I-95 and east. Hah! You're asking the wrong person. Someone like Ian or Zwyts are much more knowledgeable with past events than I am. Anyway, this winter has been the winter of events for the N and W suburbs, or even further. S and E is a rarity anymore. I was just hoping that the love could be spread out a little more this time around and that doesn't seem likely. Maybe if the coastal cranks up as it is moving away the eastern half of the area will get some more snow, but doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 You have to like the trend the last 24 hours or so. It really seems to want to give us a bone. If this pans out, I vote for Ji to start the thread for the 04/02/2013 HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Before getting too psyched read the NWS forecast discussion. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off For DC and east they BY THE TIME OF BULK OF THE PRECIP SLIDES NWD INTO OUR AREA...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOW INTO LATE MARCH...THESE SYSTEMS THATCONTAIN SNOW AS THEY DROP INTO LOWER LATITUDES WILL BE BATTLING THENEAR-SFC CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS - OR EVEN STAYING SNOWWITHIN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FT APPROACHING THE LOWLANDS/COASTALAREAS.THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOW SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...A MIX FROM THE SHEN VLY TO THE I-95CORRIDOR AND MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE WRN/SRN SHORE COUNTIES OF MDALONG THE BAY. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM QUARTER-HALFINCH RANGE FOR MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE...NOTHING SUBSTANTIALLYHIGHER OUTSIDE THE MTNS W/ ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES THEMSELVES.AS THIS SECONDARY LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY...PLENTY NWFLOW STRAITED PRECIP BANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SFCTEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FALLINGPRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA - OUTSIDE THE BAY.ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...IF ANY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Before getting too psyched read the NWS forecast discussion. Too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 18z has been wet on GFS a lot this year.. Right? And for hating it so much I have never seen it so many ****ALERTS **** mentioning it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Before getting too psyched read the NWS forecast discussion. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off For DC and east they BY THE TIME OF BULK OF THE PRECIP SLIDES NWD INTO OUR AREA...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOW INTO LATE MARCH...THESE SYSTEMS THAT CONTAIN SNOW AS THEY DROP INTO LOWER LATITUDES WILL BE BATTLING THE NEAR-SFC CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS - OR EVEN STAYING SNOW WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FT APPROACHING THE LOWLANDS/COASTAL AREAS. THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...A MIX FROM THE SHEN VLY TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE WRN/SRN SHORE COUNTIES OF MD ALONG THE BAY. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM QUARTER-HALF INCH RANGE FOR MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE...NOTHING SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER OUTSIDE THE MTNS W/ ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES THEMSELVES. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY...PLENTY NW FLOW STRAITED PRECIP BANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FALLING PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA - OUTSIDE THE BAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...IF ANY.. I'll counter that with HPC winter products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'll counter that with HPC winter products. Well you know, one person at LWX writing a discussion determines the weather. So..yeah...storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'll counter that with HPC winter products. \ Like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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