Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It also seems to matter what road temps were before the onset of snow. Light to moderate snow during the day on 2/24/05 with temps in the mid-20's didn't stick on pavement. yeah....4/7/07 stuck pretty well to the decks at 200' though not the city streets..it was on the moderate side of light or a bit 2/28 was actually worse....2/24 stuck ok...but yes...not on the pavement at all until night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I meant streets?..yes? Yes it did. A chunk fell at night though. But the elevated spots were completely covered even before sundown on the 9th. There's pics of downtown BOS though with snow in the streets early morning 5/10 when it ended. If it falls hard, it will stick to streets, but it has to be true heavy snow. If you have 950mb temps though of like -3C, I think many areas would probably start to stick with moderate snow. Not all snow is equal with a sfc temp of 33F...if its considerably colder just above the sfc, it will help. Obviously none of that can be accurately predicted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yes it did. A chunk fell at night though. But the elevated spots were completely covered even before sundown on the 9th. There's pics of downtown BOS though with snow in the streets early morning 5/10 when it ended. If it falls hard, it will stick to streets, but it has to be true heavy snow. If you have 950mb temps though of like -3C, I think many areas would probably start to stick with moderate snow. Not all snow is equal with a sfc temp of 33F...if its considerably colder just above the sfc, it will help. Obviously none of that can be accurately predicted at this point. Right, but since we can't depend on heavy snow in this upcoming situation, the question becomes: Under what conditions does 0.5-0.75 mi visibility snow stick to pavement during the day in late March? I think we have a pretty good list going: how well the sun penetrates the clouds, the antecedent pavement temperatures, is the snow steady instead of in spurts, did it start overnight instead of during the day, and your suggestion about temps just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I can't pull text right now for some reason so I can't post for you guys. I looked at CHO earlier and it was above freezing at the surface and strung out in .10+/- each 6 hour panel. I didn't look at okv though. Heaviest precip axis has def moved east with the latest run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 As one poster said, a lot depends on how cold the temperature are in the days and nights leading into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The models still are pretty far from nailing down the track. Perhaps they're all wrong (except the nam of course) and we get slammed. LET ME DREAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so, anyone staring at the 18z NAM lustfully as I am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I can already tell the NAM is about to do something bat**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so, anyone staring at the 18z NAM lustfully as I am? I can already tell the NAM is about to do something bat**** Hey gurl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so, anyone staring at the 18z NAM lustfully as I am? It gives Randy 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 edit to add content - the NAM has performed poorly this season and should not be relied on at 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol NAM. It's going to kill us. Purple drank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does the NAM tell us anything useful, or do we just throw the whole run out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I hate this #@Q#$ model. You know in your heart of hearts that it's terrible, but you look anyway and hope and dream. I'd pay good money to have the Euro look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol at the NAM having a 2pm temp of <30 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol NAM. It's going to kill us. Purple drank? Its absurd. 6"+ for the airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does the NAM tell us anything useful, or do we just throw the whole run out? yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol at the NAM having a 2pm temp of <30 at DCA If the models were members: Euro = Wes GFS = me NAM = Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March Totally legit. 1" QPF all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March No doubt in my mind that Pax River will be in the upper 20's with heavy snow around 5pm Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If the models were members: Euro = Wes GFS = me NAM = Ji almost 1" QPF with sfc temps below freezing for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Totally legit. 1" QPF all snow. I assume we should just be using the euro at this point, adjust slightly cooler, take 80% of its QPF, and disregard all other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Totally legit. 1" QPF all snow. 1.00-1.25 shows up too... funny model... NAM is for kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I assume we should just be using the euro at this point, adjust slightly cooler, take 80% of its QPF, and disregard all other guidance? You had it right earlier T-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The other thing about this NAM run - its really fast. Basically a daytime Sunday event vs the GFS which is day/night and Euro which is overnight into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Congrats Salisbury!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z EC ensemble mean at 96 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 when will the models start showing it nailing SNE with 1-2" of QPF? Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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