ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro is about 1-2C colder on BL temps than it was prior to the 3/6 bust. This would be a better airmass. Not to say that I would start predicting accumulations for I-95, but if future runs decide they want to boost the QPF, then there would be a legit reason to think this will perform better than that storm...at least for the areas it busted. Thanks for setting our resident Deb straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 doesn't matter to me why, but it will be bl temps again close enough for my simple, weenie mind 950 temps are like -3 to -4 until monday afternoon....soundings are 100x better than 3/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Actually I will throow it out there....below 500' what surface temps/rates would we need to have street stickage during daylight and mulch/grass/bush stickage I'd say <= 33 and 1/4 mi viz for street stickage <=34 and 0.8mi viz for grass/bushes <=35 and 1mi viz for cartops and shaded decks Per my experience on Monday, I think it would take more than that for streets. I didn't have 1/4 mi viz but had temps around 31.5 and it wasn't even close to sticking on streets/sidewalks. And this was pretty early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Per my experience on Monday, I think it would take more than that for streets. I didn't have 1/4 mi viz but had temps around 31.5 and it wasn't even close to sticking on streets/sidewalks. And this was pretty early morning. yeah..I guess any daylight and it would have to be ripping dendrites and like 200 yards viz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Per my experience on Monday, I think it would take more than that for streets. I didn't have 1/4 mi viz but had temps around 31.5 and it wasn't even close to sticking on streets/sidewalks. And this was pretty early morning. palm sunday stuck at 32-33, but it was like 2-3"/hr http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1942.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps. MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.2 -4.0 1007 94 100 0.13 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1006 96 100 0.17 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -4.4 1004 96 96 0.18 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.4 -5.7 1008 97 98 0.14 534 528 Do you have CHO for the Euro? Looks like a lot of front end daytime stuff- sfc looks iffy on wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 May 18, 2002 kind of stuck in upstate NY http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomay2002.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 May 18, 2002 kind of stuck in upstate NY http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomay2002.html Wow that is very late even for Albany, nice pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 April 7, 2003 stuck at low elevation....I guess it is a combo of factors http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2003a.html Ruggie got quasi stickage on April 16th http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2007g.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow that is very late even for Albany, nice pics. I know Knox is pretty high up...over 1500'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Per my experience on Monday, I think it would take more than that for streets. I didn't have 1/4 mi viz but had temps around 31.5 and it wasn't even close to sticking on streets/sidewalks. And this was pretty early morning. Agree. During 3/6, I had 1/8mi. visibility with temps at 31.2F at around 11am and nothing stuck on the street. That was on streets that were snow covered only two hours before and that saw steady light snow for that two hour lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 950 temps are like -3 to -4 until monday afternoon....soundings are 100x better than 3/6 BWI sux on these kind of events, as well as mby at 175' I was biatchin' before 3/6 and my doubts proved well founded and I feel the same way with this one especially if you add the 1C+ the Euro busted by on 3/6 obviously I hope I'm wrong, but like I said on the last page, we need rates to increase from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Per my experience on Monday, I think it would take more than that for streets. I didn't have 1/4 mi viz but had temps around 31.5 and it wasn't even close to sticking on streets/sidewalks. And this was pretty early morning. We had decent coverage on all paved surfaces on Monday am and finished with 1.5 so it is possible. The March 6 event gave me 5 inches that was plowed in my neighborhood and shoveled from the drive, so pavement stickage away from urban centers is possible/likely with any moderate rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I know Knox is pretty high up...over 1500'? It is 1276', but it is still very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Agree. During 3/6, I had 1/8mi. visibility with temps at 31.2F at around 11am and nothing stuck on the street. That was on streets that were snow covered only two hours before and that saw steady light snow for that two hour lull. I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder... 3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 May 18, 2002 kind of stuck in upstate NY http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomay2002.html Nothing like a good 'ol May snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We had decent coverage on all paved surfaces on Monday am and finished with 1.5 so it is possible. The March 6 event gave me 5 inches that was plowed in my neighborhood and shoveled from the drive, so pavement stickage away from urban centers is possible/likely with any moderate rate. there are other intangible factors in early March other than sun....late March is a different story, but I don't think you need whiteout snow to get street stickage....i think duration might matter more....like mod/hvy snow for 1-2hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 April 7, 2003 stuck at low elevation....I guess it is a combo of factors http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2003a.html Ruggie got quasi stickage on April 16th http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2007g.html I remember on one of the local philly stations they showed a more elevated part of the city and the ground was covered...looked like at least an inch of snow for april 16,2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps. MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.2 -4.0 1007 94 100 0.13 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1006 96 100 0.17 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -4.4 1004 96 96 0.18 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.4 -5.7 1008 97 98 0.14 534 528 Bob, you got any numbers on KOKV? With the access I have, the Euro is almost a make believe model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Rates will trump most anything when it comes to sticking in the street. If you can get legit heavy snow for a couple hours, it is going to stick. It has to be legit though...none of this 3/4 mile vis or 1/2 mile vis that some people think is legit heavy snow, it isn't. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but it can be two different worlds when you have snow falling at less than 1/4 mile vis versus 1/2 to 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 BWI sux on these kind of events, as well as mby at 175' I was biatchin' before 3/6 and my doubts proved well founded and I feel the same way with this one especially if you add the 1C+ the Euro busted by on 3/6 obviously I hope I'm wrong, but like I said on the last page, we need rates to increase from here Transfers are such a beeyotch. No model has it right yet. Quicker, slower, consolidated, north, south, ull support....all things always throw wrenches into the works. It can go either way. Just watch the trends, thing logically about your backyard climo, and hope for the best. The far N near pit idea seems all but gone now. That's huge. Best case is a "decent" period of waa during the coldest part of the night and then hope the surface and ull crank hard as it departs during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Rates will trump most anything when it comes to sticking in the street. If you can get legit heavy snow for a couple hours, it is going to stick. It has to be legit though...none of this 3/4 mile vis or 1/2 mile vis that some people think is legit heavy snow, it isn't. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but it can be two different worlds when you have snow falling at less than 1/4 mile vis versus 1/2 to 3/4. I'm guessing even 5/9/77 stuck at lower elevations in SNE...though probably the slushy, quasi stickage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 there are other intangible factors in early March other than sun....late March is a different story, but I don't think you need whiteout snow to get street stickage....i think duration might matter more....like mod/hvy snow for 1-2hrs+ Yes, also the anticedent temps this time around, compared to this past Monday, will be much lower. We were in the mid 60's Sat and mid to upper 50's on Sunday prior to the overnight/early morning Monday event. Also helped was the dry and relatively fluffly nature of the snow with the low dp instead of the asteroid paste many experienced 3/6. In addition, a few hours of preceding light rain didn't hurt to cool the paved temps down to at or near the surface temp. But, when it all comes down to it, we need RATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder... 3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though well, if his conditions were anything like mine then during the lull period the sky very much brightened and allowed too much IR. Doesn't take much this time of year to quickly warm dark surfaces. Once the clouds thickened again and more moderate snow commenced it just could never cool the surfaces enough again. Maybe it it'd have snowed harder or the temp been just a little cooler it would have been a different story. Summation: it can't be borderline temps this time of year unless the precip is constant and the clouds thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prediction: NAM will have purple drank over us with either this run or 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prediction: NAM will have purple rain over us with either this run or 0z tonight. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'm guessing even 5/9/77 stuck at lower elevations in SNE...though probably the slushy, quasi stickage It stuck right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder... 3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though It also seems to matter what road temps were before the onset of snow. Light to moderate snow during the day on 2/24/05 with temps in the mid-20's didn't stick on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It stuck right to the coast. I meant streets?..yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prediction: NAM will have purple drank over us with either this run or 0z tonight. Per my earlier class...toss whatever the NAM says! I'm going to hug my car topper for all its worth!! Wow. That's really sad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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