Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What time frames are you guys talking about? From when to when? 3pm sunday to 3pm monday? hopefully you get a burst in there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 hmmm...kind of holds on at DCA...maybe 0.5"?..kind of warm though... good pass of the ull right over us.. sfc temps kinda blow around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 good pass of the ull.. sfc temps kinda blow around here can we expect a burst in there?...or will it be off and on -SN at 35 degrees that gives us a 0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Its not the NAM so it will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 .5 if it fell in a 3 hr period that'd be great. 18 hrs not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 can we expect a burst in there?...or will it be off and on -SN at 35 degrees that gives us a 0.5"? doesnt look like we get much more than .1 in any 6 hour period.. i'd kind of write off the daytime stuff for now personally. t-1 seems like a safe call for us at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 doesnt look like we get much more than .1 in any 6 hour period.. i'd kind of write off the daytime stuff for now personally. t-1 seems like a safe call for us at this pt. time to change the thread title from HECS to HEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yea, it's spread out longer and warmer. IAD had a .22 6hr period w/ below freezing surface last run. Now it's a long drawn out light event even though the total is good. MON 00Z 25-MAR 6.5 -3.4 1008 53 99 0.04 549 542 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -4.3 1007 95 100 0.12 545 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.5 -5.6 1006 97 100 0.15 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.4 -5.4 1005 92 96 0.12 535 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.1 -5.8 1009 99 98 0.11 534 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps. MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.2 -4.0 1007 94 100 0.13 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1006 96 100 0.17 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -4.4 1004 96 96 0.18 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.4 -5.7 1008 97 98 0.14 534 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I am all for snow and will enjoy, but this looking more and more like a cartopper event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps. MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.2 -4.0 1007 94 100 0.13 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1006 96 100 0.17 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -4.4 1004 96 96 0.18 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.4 -5.7 1008 97 98 0.14 534 528 psssst....BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 doesnt look like we get much more than .1 in any 6 hour period.. i'd kind of write off the daytime stuff for now personally. t-1 seems like a safe call for us at this pt.You would think that, but temps for the major thoroughfares are not overly warm at the surface on the euro. The 6 hour periods at DCA are .13, .18, .17 and .14 with surface readings at 1.2, 0.6, 1.7, and 1.4 respectively. The Euro is sometimes warm at the surface, and though the panels are not overly heavy in terms of precip, I have seen the euro do something like this in the past where it is light on QPF in these types of events. In retrospect, this event obviously looks like a cartopper that many are accustomed to this winter, but the backside ULL is a situation that can certainly help those cash in around the cities even. Surface temps are cooling at the tail end of the precip to near 32 even on the Euro, and with the QPF now modeled to be more significant, the temperatures could work out better if a blend of the models were to be taken. I won't bring up the Canadian as you guys do not prefer it much, but the euro with regards to the LP evolution went in that way to a certain extent. That may be one thing that is not the best of outcomes. Cold 850's do not hurt, more of an earlier in winter factor, but it can't hurt to be present if you're someone hoping for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 psssst....BWI? best 6hr panel of the 3. .6 overall too. Just can get it to drop mostly at night..... should be good window watching verbatim. Who knows at this point. Maybe the next move the euro makes is to let the coastal get stronger and get us in the heavies w/ slightly better temps.... MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.8 -4.2 1007 87 99 0.10 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.9 -6.1 1007 96 100 0.13 540 535 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -4.4 1005 95 97 0.21 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 2.3 -5.9 1008 88 99 0.17 534 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 inch or less is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Temps and amounts similar to other events around here. Car topper at best. Mood flakes and not much stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 euro is wetter in the cities and east than to the west. This probably isn't a bad thing. More backside precip. Temps may still blow but the rates could be good. Darn cold @ 850 so flakes could be white asteroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 best 6hr panel of the 3. .6 overall too. Just can get it to drop mostly at night..... should be good window watching verbatim. Who knows at this point. Maybe the next move the euro makes is to let the coastal get stronger and get us in the heavies w/ slightly better temps.... MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.8 -4.2 1007 87 99 0.10 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.9 -6.1 1007 96 100 0.13 540 535 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -4.4 1005 95 97 0.21 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 2.3 -5.9 1008 88 99 0.17 534 528 Not bad at all and I usually run a few degrees colder than BWI. Maybe I actually have a chance at 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 1-3 for western guys and T-1 for DC guys...maybe a random 1.5"....sound right for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not bad at all and I usually run a few degrees colder than BWI. Maybe I actually have a chance at 2-3". I really like set ups where the backside precip works in like some of the models have it. ULL related snow has been a success for this area in a few past instances (i.e. 3/09, 1/11) I'd expect the heavy precip to start being modeled better, and colder temps meeting the American guidance in the middle. The h5 track isn't one that kills, and really the strength of primary vs. coastal is something that could still require some ironing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 1-3 for western guys and T-1 for DC guys...maybe a random 1.5"....sound right for now? Sounds like a very good forecast for what is out there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not bad at all and I usually run a few degrees colder than BWI. Maybe I actually have a chance at 2-3". uh boy...that has the 3/6 storm surface temps written all over it imby again, I'm gunna' need rates the hope is maybe the models are onto a stronger system and will up the qpf in future runs plenty of time one way or the other I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 1-3 for western guys and T-1 for DC guys...maybe a random 1.5"....sound right for now? yep. I've pretty much though that 1-3 from 95 and points west would be best case. Upper moco, parrs, jyo, etc having the best chance for the higher end. Seeing the euro drag it out for 24 hours isn't a good thing. Maybe the ull surprises with a nice period of rates. It's a pretty good pass on both the euro/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 uh boy...that has the 3/6 storm surface temps written all over it imby again, I'm gunna' need rates the hope is maybe the models are onto a stronger system and will up the qpf in future runs plenty of time one way or the other I suppose But if you don't have the killer east winds this time, plus stronger cold air up north this should fare better for us. Even by me 2" would be a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yep. I've pretty much though that 1-3 from 95 and points west would be best case. Upper moco, parrs, jyo, etc having the best chance for the higher end. Seeing the euro drag it out for 24 hours isn't a good thing. Maybe the ull surprises with a nice period of rates. It's a pretty good pass on both the euro/gfs I don't think anything less than about 0.2 mi viz sticks to the street except maybe above 800'?...barely sticking on the boardwalk right now and they are 29-30 and getting it pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 comparing this to 3/6 or the overrunning event is not a good comparison at all. Doesn't mean we won't bust huge. It will just be for different reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 comparing this to 3/6 or the overrunning event is not a good comparison at all. Doesn't mean we won't bust huge. It will just be for different reasons. Smart man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Actually I will throow it out there....below 500' what surface temps/rates would we need to have street stickage during daylight and mulch/grass/bush stickage I'd say <= 33 and 1/4 mi viz for street stickage <=34 and 0.8mi viz for grass/bushes <=35 and 1mi viz for cartops and shaded decks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 comparing this to 3/6 or the overrunning event is not a good comparison at all. Doesn't mean we won't bust huge. It will just be for different reasons. doesn't matter to me why, but it will be bl temps again close enough for my simple, weenie mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 doesn't matter to me why, but it will be bl temps again close enough for my simple, weenie mind Euro is about 1-2C colder on BL temps than it was prior to the 3/6 bust. This would be a better airmass. Not to say that I would start predicting accumulations for I-95, but if future runs decide they want to boost the QPF, then there would be a legit reason to think this will perform better than that storm...at least for the areas it busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps. MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.2 -4.0 1007 94 100 0.13 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1006 96 100 0.17 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -4.4 1004 96 96 0.18 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.4 -5.7 1008 97 98 0.14 534 528 .03"/hr isn't going to do anything besides mood flakes and cold cartop stickage, which will then melt when the sun comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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