wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 May 18, 2002 kind of stuck in upstate NY http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomay2002.html Nothing like a good 'ol May snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 April 7, 2003 stuck at low elevation....I guess it is a combo of factors http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2003a.html Ruggie got quasi stickage on April 16th http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2007g.html I remember on one of the local philly stations they showed a more elevated part of the city and the ground was covered...looked like at least an inch of snow for april 16,2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps. MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.2 -4.0 1007 94 100 0.13 546 540 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1006 96 100 0.17 539 534 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -4.4 1004 96 96 0.18 535 532 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.4 -5.7 1008 97 98 0.14 534 528 Bob, you got any numbers on KOKV? With the access I have, the Euro is almost a make believe model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Rates will trump most anything when it comes to sticking in the street. If you can get legit heavy snow for a couple hours, it is going to stick. It has to be legit though...none of this 3/4 mile vis or 1/2 mile vis that some people think is legit heavy snow, it isn't. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but it can be two different worlds when you have snow falling at less than 1/4 mile vis versus 1/2 to 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 BWI sux on these kind of events, as well as mby at 175' I was biatchin' before 3/6 and my doubts proved well founded and I feel the same way with this one especially if you add the 1C+ the Euro busted by on 3/6 obviously I hope I'm wrong, but like I said on the last page, we need rates to increase from here Transfers are such a beeyotch. No model has it right yet. Quicker, slower, consolidated, north, south, ull support....all things always throw wrenches into the works. It can go either way. Just watch the trends, thing logically about your backyard climo, and hope for the best. The far N near pit idea seems all but gone now. That's huge. Best case is a "decent" period of waa during the coldest part of the night and then hope the surface and ull crank hard as it departs during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 there are other intangible factors in early March other than sun....late March is a different story, but I don't think you need whiteout snow to get street stickage....i think duration might matter more....like mod/hvy snow for 1-2hrs+ Yes, also the anticedent temps this time around, compared to this past Monday, will be much lower. We were in the mid 60's Sat and mid to upper 50's on Sunday prior to the overnight/early morning Monday event. Also helped was the dry and relatively fluffly nature of the snow with the low dp instead of the asteroid paste many experienced 3/6. In addition, a few hours of preceding light rain didn't hurt to cool the paved temps down to at or near the surface temp. But, when it all comes down to it, we need RATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder... 3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though well, if his conditions were anything like mine then during the lull period the sky very much brightened and allowed too much IR. Doesn't take much this time of year to quickly warm dark surfaces. Once the clouds thickened again and more moderate snow commenced it just could never cool the surfaces enough again. Maybe it it'd have snowed harder or the temp been just a little cooler it would have been a different story. Summation: it can't be borderline temps this time of year unless the precip is constant and the clouds thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prediction: NAM will have purple drank over us with either this run or 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prediction: NAM will have purple rain over us with either this run or 0z tonight. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'm guessing even 5/9/77 stuck at lower elevations in SNE...though probably the slushy, quasi stickage It stuck right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder... 3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though It also seems to matter what road temps were before the onset of snow. Light to moderate snow during the day on 2/24/05 with temps in the mid-20's didn't stick on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prediction: NAM will have purple drank over us with either this run or 0z tonight. Per my earlier class...toss whatever the NAM says! I'm going to hug my car topper for all its worth!! Wow. That's really sad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I meant streets?..yes? Yes it did. A chunk fell at night though. But the elevated spots were completely covered even before sundown on the 9th. There's pics of downtown BOS though with snow in the streets early morning 5/10 when it ended. If it falls hard, it will stick to streets, but it has to be true heavy snow. If you have 950mb temps though of like -3C, I think many areas would probably start to stick with moderate snow. Not all snow is equal with a sfc temp of 33F...if its considerably colder just above the sfc, it will help. Obviously none of that can be accurately predicted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yes it did. A chunk fell at night though. But the elevated spots were completely covered even before sundown on the 9th. There's pics of downtown BOS though with snow in the streets early morning 5/10 when it ended. If it falls hard, it will stick to streets, but it has to be true heavy snow. If you have 950mb temps though of like -3C, I think many areas would probably start to stick with moderate snow. Not all snow is equal with a sfc temp of 33F...if its considerably colder just above the sfc, it will help. Obviously none of that can be accurately predicted at this point. Right, but since we can't depend on heavy snow in this upcoming situation, the question becomes: Under what conditions does 0.5-0.75 mi visibility snow stick to pavement during the day in late March? I think we have a pretty good list going: how well the sun penetrates the clouds, the antecedent pavement temperatures, is the snow steady instead of in spurts, did it start overnight instead of during the day, and your suggestion about temps just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I can't pull text right now for some reason so I can't post for you guys. I looked at CHO earlier and it was above freezing at the surface and strung out in .10+/- each 6 hour panel. I didn't look at okv though. Heaviest precip axis has def moved east with the latest run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 As one poster said, a lot depends on how cold the temperature are in the days and nights leading into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The models still are pretty far from nailing down the track. Perhaps they're all wrong (except the nam of course) and we get slammed. LET ME DREAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so, anyone staring at the 18z NAM lustfully as I am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I can already tell the NAM is about to do something bat**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so, anyone staring at the 18z NAM lustfully as I am? I can already tell the NAM is about to do something bat**** Hey gurl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so, anyone staring at the 18z NAM lustfully as I am? It gives Randy 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 edit to add content - the NAM has performed poorly this season and should not be relied on at 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol NAM. It's going to kill us. Purple drank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does the NAM tell us anything useful, or do we just throw the whole run out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I hate this #@Q#$ model. You know in your heart of hearts that it's terrible, but you look anyway and hope and dream. I'd pay good money to have the Euro look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol NAM. It's going to kill us. Purple drank? Its absurd. 6"+ for the airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol at the NAM having a 2pm temp of <30 at DCA If the models were members: Euro = Wes GFS = me NAM = Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March Totally legit. 1" QPF all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes...it tells us the entire Metro area is in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon in late March No doubt in my mind that Pax River will be in the upper 20's with heavy snow around 5pm Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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