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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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April 7, 2003 stuck at low elevation....I guess it is a combo of factors

 

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2003a.html

 

Ruggie got quasi stickage on April 16th

 

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2007g.html

 I remember on one of the local philly stations they showed a more elevated part of the city and the ground was covered...looked like at least an inch of snow for april 16,2007
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Not "terrible" at dc but you can easily what a small dif w/ the primary makes on temps.

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.2    -4.0    1007      94     100    0.13     546     540    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.6    -5.2    1006      96     100    0.17     539     534    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.7    -4.4    1004      96      96    0.18     535     532    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.4    -5.7    1008      97      98    0.14     534     528

Bob, you got any numbers on KOKV? With the access I have, the Euro is almost a make believe model.

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Rates will trump most anything when it comes to sticking in the street. If you can get legit heavy snow for a couple hours, it is going to stick. It has to be legit though...none of this 3/4 mile vis or 1/2 mile vis that some people think is legit heavy snow, it isn't. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but it can be two different worlds when you have snow falling at less than 1/4 mile vis versus 1/2 to 3/4.

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BWI sux on these kind of events, as well as mby at 175'

I was biatchin' before 3/6 and my doubts proved well founded and I feel the same way with this one especially if you add the 1C+ the Euro busted by on 3/6

obviously I hope I'm wrong, but like I said on the last page, we need rates to increase from here

 

Transfers are such a beeyotch. No model has it right yet. Quicker, slower, consolidated, north, south, ull support....all things always throw wrenches into the works. 

 

It can go either way. Just watch the trends, thing logically about your backyard climo, and hope for the best. The far N near pit idea seems all but gone now. That's huge. 

 

Best case is a "decent" period of waa during the coldest part of the night and then hope the surface and ull crank hard as it departs during daylight.

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there are other intangible factors in early March other than sun....late March is a different story, but I don't think you need whiteout snow to get street stickage....i think duration might matter more....like mod/hvy snow for 1-2hrs+

Yes, also the anticedent temps this time around, compared to this past Monday, will be much lower. We were in the mid 60's Sat and mid to upper 50's on Sunday prior to the overnight/early morning Monday event. Also helped was the dry and relatively fluffly nature of the snow with the low dp instead of the asteroid paste many experienced 3/6. In addition, a few hours of preceding light rain didn't hurt to cool the paved temps down to at or near the surface temp. But, when it all comes down to it, we need RATES.

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I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder...

 

3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though

well, if his conditions were anything like mine then during the lull period the sky very much brightened and allowed too much IR.  Doesn't take much this time of year to quickly warm dark surfaces.  Once the clouds thickened again and more moderate snow commenced it just could never cool the surfaces enough again.  Maybe it it'd have snowed harder or the temp been just a little cooler it would have been a different story.  Summation:  it can't be borderline temps this time of year unless the precip is constant and the clouds thick.

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I wonder why?...there has to be other factors...3/6 is fine for street stickage here....did 3/7/07 stick there?..I know it was colder...

3/9/99 stuck easily in DC during the day...it was colder though

It also seems to matter what road temps were before the onset of snow. Light to moderate snow during the day on 2/24/05 with temps in the mid-20's didn't stick on pavement.

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I meant streets?..yes?

 

 

Yes it did. A chunk fell at night though. But the elevated spots were completely covered even before sundown on the 9th. There's pics of downtown BOS though with snow in the streets early morning 5/10 when it ended.

 

If it falls hard, it will stick to streets, but it has to be true heavy snow. If you have 950mb temps though of like -3C, I think many areas would probably start to stick with moderate snow. Not all snow is equal with a sfc temp of 33F...if its considerably colder just above the sfc, it will help.

 

Obviously none of that can be accurately predicted at this point.

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Yes it did. A chunk fell at night though. But the elevated spots were completely covered even before sundown on the 9th. There's pics of downtown BOS though with snow in the streets early morning 5/10 when it ended.

 

If it falls hard, it will stick to streets, but it has to be true heavy snow. If you have 950mb temps though of like -3C, I think many areas would probably start to stick with moderate snow. Not all snow is equal with a sfc temp of 33F...if its considerably colder just above the sfc, it will help.

 

Obviously none of that can be accurately predicted at this point.

Right, but since we can't depend on heavy snow in this upcoming situation, the question becomes: Under what conditions does 0.5-0.75 mi visibility snow stick to pavement during the day in late March? I think we have a pretty good list going: how well the sun penetrates the clouds, the antecedent pavement temperatures, is the snow steady instead of in spurts, did it start overnight instead of during the day, and your suggestion about temps just above the surface. 

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I can't pull text right now for some reason so I can't post for you guys. I looked at CHO earlier and it was above freezing at the surface and strung out in .10+/- each 6 hour panel. I didn't look at okv though. 

 

Heaviest precip axis has def moved east with the latest run,

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