gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Coincidentally, the first night of my vacation next week is Sunday night in Winchester, VA, at the George Washington hotel. I booked it awhile back, definitely not thinking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GEFS look decent http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS084.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 UKIE at 72 has a 994 L in SW MO... 96 is 993 just E of OBX with transfer just about done and moves NE out to sea... 72 is juicy as hell re QPF everywhere in the SE 130321165250767793000.gif u have H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 u have H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 100% lock that for all the NAM bashing(rightfully so) everyone here is hoping it happens. Let's not kid ourselves I hope it happens. I pray it happens. I want it to happen without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Have fun storming the castle. Quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I hope it happens. I pray it happens. I want it to happen without a doubt. If we get NAM'd I'll buy you 2 bottles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I know it's very tough to believe that we get a wet mangled flake given our history of late. But it's tough not to take notice of a pretty tight consensus irt the location of the transfer w/ the gfs and euro. The easiest way to get fooked is to have the primary go too far north. It would destroy the mid levels given the time of year. If it goes down as is, even a compromise between the gfs/euro is a fun storm all things considered. I know ji wants 8" or bust but I would be thrilled with a widespread 1-3 with subfreezing surface from 95 and points west. That would be the single biggest event of the year. And it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro will put us in our place. Don't worry. Let's enjoy our modeled snow. Plus the dog is going in for a detailed on Tuesday. Don't want to ruin his new look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If we get NAM'd I'll buy you 2 bottles Deal. You might as well just paypal me for the other bottle, because I bought it on Monday. The NAM is on crack. GFS is ok. I really don't expect the Euro to come on board. But then again, because it has been consistently representing the block way better than the GFS, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Is the UKIE acceptable? I know we have thrown the GGEM in the trash... just want to make sure the UKIE is allowed to be posted as I did above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 soundings out here are way better than yesterday's 12z run. nice fantasy storm. 12Z GFS Bufkit: MRB 130324/1800Z 78 13006KT 37.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 0:1| 0.0130324/2100Z 81 09006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 0:1| 0.0130325/0000Z 84 09008KT 31.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 5:1| 0.4----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++------------130325/0300Z 87 06006KT 30.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.216 11:1| 3.3130325/0600Z 90 07003KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 10:1| 3.7130325/0900Z 93 04005KT 29.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 4.3130325/1200Z 96 02005KT 30.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 4.3 But since there's more snow at HGR, I'm using that one. 130324/2100Z 81 10004KT 31.7F SNOW 14:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 14:1| 2.3130325/0000Z 84 08006KT 30.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 12:1| 2.9 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++------------130325/0300Z 87 08004KT 29.4F SNOW 13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176 12:1| 5.2130325/0600Z 90 06005KT 28.8F SNOW 5:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 11:1| 5.7 130325/0900Z 93 05005KT 29.6F SNOW 22:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 12:1| 7.1 130325/1200Z 96 02006KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 the thing is, the euro is already in a pretty good place. Close to .25 with cold 850's and surface within an inch of freezing. The only way it would put me in my place is if it backs off on precip from its 0z run. If it holds onto last night or adds a little precip then I'm pretty stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 soundings out here are way better than yesterday's 12z run. nice fantasy storm. you're in a good spot for a late march event in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara1013471 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12Z GFS Bufkit: MRB 130324/1800Z 78 13006KT 37.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 0:1| 0.0130324/2100Z 81 09006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 0:1| 0.0130325/0000Z 84 09008KT 31.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 5:1| 0.4----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++------------130325/0300Z 87 06006KT 30.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.216 11:1| 3.3130325/0600Z 90 07003KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 10:1| 3.7130325/0900Z 93 04005KT 29.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 4.3130325/1200Z 96 02005KT 30.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 4.3 But since there's more snow at HGR, I'm using that one. 130324/2100Z 81 10004KT 31.7F SNOW 14:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 14:1| 2.3130325/0000Z 84 08006KT 30.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 12:1| 2.9 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++------------130325/0300Z 87 08004KT 29.4F SNOW 13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176 12:1| 5.2130325/0600Z 90 06005KT 28.8F SNOW 5:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 11:1| 5.7 130325/0900Z 93 05005KT 29.6F SNOW 22:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 12:1| 7.1 130325/1200Z 96 02006KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 7.1 could you post SHD? thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 the thing is, the euro is already in a pretty good place. Close to .25 with cold 850's and surface within an inch of freezing. The only way it would put me in my place is if it backs off on precip from its 0z run. If it holds onto last night or adds a little precip then I'm pretty stoked. The non-event on Monday was a Euro 0.15-0.2" forecast for DCA with cold temps in the short range, and a bit wetter in multiple runs before that-- not that far off verbatim from this output. The Euro needs to be well above 0.25" for me to start to think there's a consensus forming, since 0.2" QPF three days out is really a caution flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The non-event on Monday was a Euro 0.15-0.2" forecast for DCA with cold temps in the short range, and a bit wetter in multiple runs before that-- not that far off verbatim from this output. The Euro needs to be well above 0.25" for me to start to think there's a consensus forming, since 0.2" QPF three days out is really a caution flag to me. getting the temps and not the precip would be pretty standard winter 12-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 getting the temps and not the precip would be pretty standard winter 12-13 And I've never seen a pattern with such a persistent SW to NE gradient. The Shenandoah Valley counties all the way east into Prince William county have really been experiencing a different March than we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 could you post SHD? thanks! Sorry, Tara. The site I use doesn't have SHD, or BCB. It does list Woodstock, VA. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=woo 130324/1800Z 78 11005KT 30.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 12:1| 1.7130324/2100Z 81 09006KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.204 12:1| 1.7130325/0000Z 84 09006KT 29.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 9:1| 2.1----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++------------130325/0300Z 87 07005KT 31.4F SNOW 17:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.222 13:1| 5.9130325/0600Z 90 10003KT 30.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 13:1| 6.7130325/0900Z 93 04004KT 29.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 12:1| 6.8130325/1200Z 96 02004KT 29.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 6.9----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++------------130325/1500Z 99 02004KT 30.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 6.9130325/1800Z 102 01005KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 12:1| 6.9130325/2100Z 105 32004KT 34.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 12:1| 6.9130326/0000Z 108 30007KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 6.9----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++-----------130326/0300Z 111 31009KT 30.3F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 come on those of you with early Euro results, give us the bad news since I don't see any play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 looks a bit better precip wise but the OV low is stronger than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 euro is about 0.35 - 0.4" by my estimate....seems kind of warm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 .25"+ for everyone.. probably like .35" ish for DCA. .25" potomac and SW thru 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Back just in time for euro heartbreak? Hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 .25"+ for everyone.. probably like .35" ish for DCA. .25" potomac and SW thru 12z. HGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 HGR? prob similar.. dca gets past .5 at 0z.. backlash loving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What time frames are you guys talking about? From when to when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 .25"+ for everyone.. probably like .35" ish for DCA. .25" potomac and SW thru 12z. hmmm...kind of holds on at DCA...maybe 0.5"?..kind of warm though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 good hit for the places that keep getting good hits along the wv/va border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What time frames are you guys talking about? From when to when? 0z mon thru 0z tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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