stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 zwyts will be happy that the surface freezing line runs pretty much along 95 @ 165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm pissed I missed the purple. Congrats zwyts. It's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The scenario looks frighteningly close to the noquestration thingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm pissed I missed the purple. Congrats zwyts. It's all snow. allfnin.PNG We need soundings. Screw it, I'm throwing what's left of the college fund in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My model prediction skills are predicting a weenie euro run this afternoon. The problem will be that it would mean it's moving towards the gfs re-developer idea. Then again....the gfs could bury us first @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The scenario looks frighteningly close to the noquestration thingy. it is a fantasy storm on a skill less model that defies climo,....so it is model porn and nothing more....a storm with this pattern certainly has the posibility of a gradient elevation event so maybe I'll chase if there is a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 We need soundings. Screw it, I'm throwing what's left of the college fund in. for who? Masanutten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 One last week of torture to send us off to spring, I'll take it. Lack of sleep here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just keeps going...crushing! Ji must have stroked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looks like the perfect transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Verbatim it's all snow in the cities except maybe right as the transfer happens. Big cad sig as the primary marches but then it looks a little dicey. Quickly goes back to all snow and surface near freezing as the coastal cranks. Love the ull. Perfect. Now, do I really believe it? Nope. 3 totally different solutions in 18 hours. I do like the cleaner look @ h5 leading in. It would be a slow mover for sure. Euro is going to bring a jv version. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm pissed I missed the purple. Congrats zwyts. It's all snow. allfnin.PNG Potomac precip wall strikes again. Borderline temps. 24 more hours of 35F RASN/SNRA. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Potomac precip wall strikes again. Borderline temps. 24 more hours of 35F RASN/SNRA. Can't wait. It's a beautiful bowling ball with a much better airmass to work with. The biggest red flag is that it whiffs sne. We know that can't happen so we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 a much better airmass to work with. Eh...it looks fairly similar to me. Lows in the upper 20s/low 30s and highs in the low-mid 40s ahead of the storm. Sounds fairly similar to March 3-5, except with 3 weeks of higher sun angle. But, since it doesn't give BOS and ORH 12-20", it's not happening. ORH is getting 90" for Feb-Mar-Apr or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Eh...it looks fairly similar to me. Lows in the upper 20s/low 30s and highs in the low-mid 40s ahead of the storm. Sounds fairly similar to March 3-5, except with 3 weeks of higher sun angle. But, since it doesn't give BOS and ORH 12-20", it's not happening. ORH is getting 90" for Feb-Mar-Apr or bust. initial evolution is a bit diff but in va and offshore it does look a lot like the early mar event. low tries to stack over land etc. lots of east winds up here during the event.. high is pretty far north. silly gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol your flurries gave many close-in VA burbs and southern MD, 1-2", including places at low elevation east of the fall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ggem on board big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ggem on board big time If the Euro shows anything similar to this in a little over an hour, then people will start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 If the Euro shows anything similar to this in a little over an hour, then people will start getting excited. why?...it is 7 days oout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 More like 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol your flurries gave many close-in VA burbs and southern MD, 1-2", including places at low elevation east of the fall line lol flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 why?...it is 7 days oout Still if all the major models show something nice even 7 days out, there is a higher probability that it will occur. In the cities there is an almost 0% chance of a big storm but if everything works out perfectly we can still get our biggest snowfall of the season. Plus it has been such a horrible season so far people are willing to get invested in a storm they normally would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Still if all the major models show something nice even 7 days out, there is a higher probability that it will occur. In the cities there is an almost 0% chance of a big storm but if everything works out perfectly we can still get our biggest snowfall of the season. Plus it has been such a horrible season so far people are willing to get invested in a storm they normally would not. There will probably be a big storm. It will probably screw is in the DC/Balt area. The end. Summer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 There will probably be a big storm. It will probably screw is in the DC/Balt area. The end. Summer time. Your probably right, i don't even need a HECS. All i want is 3-6" so this winter does not leave such a sour taste in my mouth. I could care less that it will melt the next day. After this storm i will root for 70's and another derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The way this season has turned out with a widespread winter storm warning failing, todays winter weather advisory dry sloted away, I would hold off excitement until the first flakes start falling. The good news is it has been one heck of a snowy month on the models, something has to verify soon and buck the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 it is a fantasy storm on a skill less model that defies climo,....so it is model porn and nothing more....a storm with this pattern certainly has the posibility of a gradient elevation event so maybe I'll chase if there is a storm How can you say the Gfs has no skill. It's pretty good at identifying these windows. Just toss it 84 hours from the event and use the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's the GFS cartoon. But we haven't had anything like this during prime climo. Now, twice in March, we get a bowling ball. Hell, great way to end winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 ggem on board big time ggem.gif Ggem had nothing close the past couple of days so this is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's the GFS cartoon. But we haven't had anything like this during prime climo. Now, twice in March, we get a bowling ball. Hell, great way to end winter. This is one of those times that its good to live in Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Eh...it looks fairly similar to me. Lows in the upper 20s/low 30s and highs in the low-mid 40s ahead of the storm. Sounds fairly similar to March 3-5, except with 3 weeks of higher sun angle. But, since it doesn't give BOS and ORH 12-20", it's not happening. ORH is getting 90" for Feb-Mar-Apr or bust. I can't post euro maps but there are plenty of teens and 20's in canada and even NNE. HP placement keeps surface flow mostly due N leading in. I agree the evolution looks similar but I don't think PA will be in the 40's while we're stuggling from the surface to 925. GFS has nice surface flow leading in with a dicey part during the transfer as ian pointed out. However, the h5 track would get rid of the east flow pretty quick. I'm not implying that there won't be plenty of problems IF this even happens. Just pointing out some differences between this setup and the epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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