stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I can't think of one reason to use it in winter...its temp profiles are a joke...its QPF is a joke....it over amplifies....it's storm track bounces around...what is the point when we have the euro? it makes sense to defer to the euro every single time No doubt in my mind that we'll be at 31 degrees at 2pm on Sunday while it's pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I think you said it was good for squall lines And that goes back to my answer: never use it in winter. I mean, I guess you can use it to pinpoint banding, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What's the NAM's deadly range again? Guessing 48 hours or less out? NAM love on Monday would make many happy... Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 And that goes back to my answer: never use it in winter. I mean, I guess you can use it to pinpoint banding, etc. I use it all the time in d1. It's good for temps (at least MOS as part of the MOS suite), timing, ideas about banding etc. No one uses the GFS at 384 for a forecast.. that's sorta the NAM at 84 in my mind. There's not much reason it would or should outperform the globals for a winter storm especially that far out. Most of the problem is user error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 to me, there is nothing impressive about the NAM. I want to see a closed cut off this time of year before getting excited... not some strung out hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS looks really good through 81. If you want snow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Never. For now on--any winter NAM run I hear about--tossin that crap! Gimme Euro or gimme death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 to me, there is nothing impressive about the NAM. I want to see a closed cut off this time of year before getting excited... not some strung out hot mess. then you won't be impressed with the snow GFS gives us either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Timing on the GFS is perfect. Heaviest precip from midnight to 6 AM. .5 upto DCA....go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 to me, there is nothing impressive about the NAM. I want to see a closed cut off this time of year before getting excited... not some strung out hot mess. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS pretty close to perfect for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Gfs. Direct hit H5 at 12z. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 For now on--any winter NAM run I hear about--tossin that crap! Gimme Euro or gimme death! Hug the Euro is my motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hearing GFS is a nice hit? Anyone eyeing it up? I'm sure nobody is looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like the American models are starting to recognize the block.. I mean, this still isn't a blockbuster...but we could be in for a 2" snow if everything lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hearing GFS is a nice hit? Anyone eyeing it up? I'm sure nobody is looking... It's good. About .5 ish? when it counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 then you won't be impressed with the snow GFS gives us either GFS is ok. closes off the low slightly but then strings it out at the end. This setup is fine in January/early Feb... not in March. I'm just not feeling this one right now. The potential is on the table, but thats all it is at the moment to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What about moon angle? Hear it's a B**** in March subtract .3 for moon angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 LOL. The one time in my life I dont want a snow storm. Oh well I will enjoy sleeping at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 dayum. GFS gives IAD .54 with surface below freezing the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 oooh....dc streakbreaker... MON 00Z 25-MAR 0.6 -3.6 0.14 MON 06Z 25-MAR -0.1 -2.5 0.29 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.3 -4.6 0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prep for the Euro with 34/35 surface and .22 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 honestly, having the WAA fall apart is the biggest red flag to me. I've seen this song and dance many times for DC, and no matter how modeled, it doesn't end well. When you have to rely on the ULL to saturate the atmosphere and thump, its never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 honestly, having the WAA fall apart is the biggest red flag to me. I've seen this song and dance many times for DC, and no matter how modeled, it doesn't end well. When you have to rely on the ULL to saturate the atmosphere and thump, its never a good thing. It's definitely not snowing 4"+ in DC so just enjoy the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Prep for the Euro with 34/35 surface and .22 QPF. Euro is going to deepen that storm off the Virginia capes for our final hurrah of this pretty good March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 100% lock that for all the NAM bashing(rightfully so) everyone here is hoping it happens. Let's not kid ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Have fun storming the castle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Back to shoveling what the models keep giving! Modeled snow! What an insane model snow year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 UKIE at 72 has a 994 L in SW MO... 96 is 993 just E of OBX with transfer just about done and moves NE out to sea... 72 is juicy as hell re QPF everywhere in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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