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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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If this was about 10 days from now I'd be all in. Trees might be leafing by then... a lot more ready to pop around here tho it could be slow with the cold. If we get an anomalous snow event I want it to be crippling.

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I don't remember if we got anything during Passover, but I think it snowed 3 days later on Good Friday with temps staying in the 30's most of the day. I was only 9 then so I'm not positive about the way that week played out.

 

I remember a 4-5 inch snowstorm in South Jersey in 1997 in last week of March on Good Friday. But down here got nothing

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I'm starting some self-discipline to subdue my out-of-control emotions over the latest GFS run.

 

It's still 5 days out and it's only the 18z.

It's still 5 days out and it's only the 18z.

It's still 5 days out and it's only the 18z.

It's still 5 days out and it's only the 18z.

 

Your 3rd post and you're already posting that. At least wait 5 posts before you start acting like one of us!

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NAM shows decent precip rates in the Carolinas at 84hrs though.

 

The last 15 storms imby have been T-2". Thats every event starting with October 2011!  I am a little slow, but I think I finally caught on and I am  forecasting T"-2" given the fact that snow is in the forecast. 

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Euro gives iad/dca .22 ish with good temps. Dicey on bookends with light rates. Pretty consistent with location of transfer.

6z gfs is a nice improvement over 0z. I'm glad gfs is tossing the pit primary idea.

We all know how these systems go. Super tough to nail down timing and placement. There will precip busts in both directions for some even at really short range. We're due. DEATHBAND!

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Euro gives iad/dca .22 ish with good temps. Dicey on bookends with light rates. Pretty consistent with location of transfer.

6z gfs is a nice improvement over 0z. I'm glad gfs is tossing the pit primary idea.

We all know how these systems go. Super tough to nail down timing and placement. There will precip busts in both directions for some even at really short range. We're due. DEATHBAND!

Looks like the Euro timing is better, later. Is that correct? If we could slow the GFS timing down by about 6-9 hours we'd have the best precip at night and a better chance I would think.

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Looks like the Euro timing is better, later. Is that correct? If we could slow the GFS timing down by about 6-9 hours we'd have the best precip at night and a better chance I would think.

Euro has the best rates between 6-12z so that should be 2-8am. Light stuff before and after won't do much. Euro has best case timing.

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

I didn't realize the sun makes a difference In the dead of night. I also didn't realize that -5 850s with a freezing surface needed dynamic cooling.
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Euro has the best rates between 6-12z so that should be 2-8am. Light stuff before and after won't do much. Euro has best case timing.

SO what does the Euro have in terms of QPF and temps for DCA and IAD?  I can't tell much from the crappy temporal resolution of the model on the free sites. 

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