Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This run misses new england so we know it is wrong.....might not matter for us, but it obviously does not have the correct solution The funny thing about this block is that it's so huge that temps are above normal in northern maine. Big -ao with a -nao is something that NE hates. I feel really bad for them. 12z euro control yesterday demolished us with bliz conditions and skipped NE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The funny thing about this block is that it's so huge that temps are above normal in northern maine. Big -ao with a -nao is something that NE hates. I feel really bad for them. 12z euro control yesterday demolished us with bliz conditions and skipped NE too. sounds like 2/10 pattern to a T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 this has been a long winter. It started in early november when the Euro had a 4-8 storm for us that skipped us and ended up nailing NJ/Philly and now its late march and we are still talking about storms skipping us and nailing other areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 the euro control is like when you ask your dad for something and he says no....and then you ask your Mom for the same thing and she says yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 the euro control is like when you ask your dad for something and he says no....and then you ask your Mom for the same thing and she says yes .. and then your mother finds out you asked your Dad first and then changes the answer to NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 this has been a long winter. It started in early november when the Euro had a 4-8 storm for us that skipped us and ended up nailing NJ/Philly and now its late march and we are still talking about storms skipping us and nailing other areas i don't remember getting close to 4 inches of snow (in one storm) at all this winter.......the nj coast did but the philly area has missed out on everything too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hey guys, jumping in your thread but I live in NH. Will be in DC over the weekend so thought I would read up on the thread. Sun angle is a killer but it can definitely still snow down there. For comparison Boston had a blizzard with a high of 17F on April 7, 1982 I believe. Eastern Mass had a crippling power outage snowstorm during the day on May 8, 1977. That sun angle was more intense then yours at March 25th. Everything has to stack up just right but it can happen. If any of you guys miss snow I can load up my suitcase on Saturday with some of my 2 feet I have on the ground and bring it down!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 this winter has been ok for being awful we've only hit 70 degrees 5 times since October 28th..,. last year there was no reason to even look at models...this year, much more model chasing. same results though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 last year there was no reason to even look at models...this year, much more model chasing. same results though If anything, it makes it more frustrating as everyone to the north, south, west and even east have cashed in. It really is hard to get excited about moderate precip with questionable temps again. Been there, done that. Hate to keep saying seasonal trends aren't favorable for this but ... well.. there you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This one is a rough one. We've got 3 different cyclonic circulations surrounding and working in tandem with the main upper low coming across the Appalachians. As each one slightly alters with each model run, the timing of the vertically stacking primary and redevelopment will change too. This makes a huge difference for who gets into the heaviest precipitation and who does not. The ECMWF/EPS indicate the potential for banding induced snow accumulation early Monday in our south and eastern areas, possibly extending into the I-95 corridor (per EPS). The window may be brief but the timing is looking good, arriving after sunset Sunday. Assuming the inland / GGEM-like tracks are not as correct, we should have no problems in the mid levels for snow (although I haven't seen profiles). The issue is the low level easterly wind (is that a pseudo-coastal front on the ECMWF Monday AM?) starting Sunday evening into Monday. There is still time to see changes with this setup to bring the low on the euro further north, but that also means this could go the way of the GGEM. It is possible, though, that with a further north solution, that means the primary holds on longer. This reduces the precipitation amounts/intensity and cold air. Pretty fine line in this setup and the line got finer because of the calender. Great post from HM about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The euro is a great track, and it's still another cartopper. It's like .5"-2" is the forecast for every storm here from now until eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro Ensembles? A little north of the OP but basically very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 control looks like the op but a wetter over the cities. Transfers to the va capes and starts bombing off of OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 control looks like the op but a wetter over the cities. Transfers to the va capes and starts bombing off of OC. qpf? sounds like it may be better for us east of DCA, at least qpf-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 qpf? sounds like it may be better for us east of DCA, at least qpf-wise fwiw- about a half inch through the cities. It's drier in the sw areas and delmarva. doesn't mean much. The control adds little value. Unless it shows a blizzard of course. It does have the same idea as the op irt the location of the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 fwiw- about a half inch through the cities. It's drier in the sw areas and delmarva. doesn't mean much. The control adds little value. Unless it shows a blizzard of course. It does have the same idea as the op irt the location of the transfer. k thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Where is the Gfs thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Where is the Gfs thump? Looks like it is coming this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GFS looks kind of like the euro now Your ahead of me what does the QPF look like around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 0.5"+ for everyone Thanks we probably need 1"+ unless we get a great thump to have any decent storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Thanks we probably need 1"+ unless we get a great thump to have any decent storm here. This feels like the snowquester thread very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This feels like the snowquester thread very much It sure does, but I know you know this it was in the 40's all the way up by the Canadian border with that storm. There is still a slim chance of a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro doesn't drive the primary as far north as the gfs. I'll hug the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 it's like a 12 hour stall Since this will not be a Miller A we need everything to go absolutely perfectly this time of year to get a storm, but a 3" storm would be a huge win around here. I think that is still very doable in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 the GFS switches us all to rain and then back to snow...a strong low over PIT is not a good thing....probably means sleet too Yea, that's a messy look in any winter month. Now that the next season in line will be summer I hope the euro is right. Honestly, the euro has be less of a cut and further south the whole time. Hopefully it's modeling the block and confluence better. We need the transfer to start and finish before the primary passes our latitude. Doesn't matter what the gfs shows temp wise. That type of evolution will be fraught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 we could definitely get a T-2" type event depending on where you are... It would be nice to see 2" of snow for the first seder, I am 37 and I have never seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It sure does, but I know you know this it was in the 40's all the way up by the Canadian border with that storm. There is still a slim chance of a decent storm. 3-4 days is an eternity. Ill believe it when I have 1/8 vis and its sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Instant weather maps shows 2-4" I95 4-7 to just to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 3-4 days is an eternity. Ill believe it when I have 1/8 vis and its sticking. Lol you definitely have the right to be very skeptical after this winter. If the Euro is still showing something decent Friday than maybe have CWG go 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.