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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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This run misses new england so we know it is wrong.....might not matter for us, but it obviously does not have the correct solution

 

The funny thing about this block is that it's so huge that temps are above normal in northern maine. Big -ao with a -nao is something that NE hates. I feel really bad for them.

 

12z euro control yesterday demolished us with bliz conditions and skipped NE too.

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The funny thing about this block is that it's so huge that temps are above normal in northern maine. Big -ao with a -nao is something that NE hates. I feel really bad for them.

 

12z euro control yesterday demolished us with bliz conditions and skipped NE too.

sounds like 2/10 pattern to a T

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this has been a long winter. It started in early november when the Euro had a 4-8 storm for us that skipped us and ended up nailing NJ/Philly and now its late march and we are still talking about storms skipping us and nailing other areas

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this has been a long winter. It started in early november when the Euro had a 4-8 storm for us that skipped us and ended up nailing NJ/Philly and now its late march and we are still talking about storms skipping us and nailing other areas

 

i don't remember getting close to 4 inches of snow (in one storm) at all this winter.......the nj coast did but the philly area has missed out on everything too

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Hey guys, jumping in your thread but I live in NH.  Will be in DC over the weekend so thought I would read up on the thread.  Sun angle is a killer but it can definitely still snow down there.  For comparison Boston had a blizzard with a high of 17F on April 7, 1982  I believe.  Eastern Mass had a crippling power outage snowstorm during the day on May 8, 1977.   That sun angle was more intense then yours at March 25th.  Everything has to stack up just right but it can happen.   If any of you guys miss snow I can load up my suitcase on Saturday with some of my 2 feet I have on the ground and bring it down!!

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this winter has been ok for being awful

 

we've only hit 70 degrees 5 times since October 28th..,.

last year there was no reason to even look at models...this year, much more model chasing. same results though

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last year there was no reason to even look at models...this year, much more model chasing. same results though

If anything, it makes it more frustrating as everyone to the north, south, west and even east have cashed in. It really is hard to get excited about moderate precip with questionable temps again. Been there, done that. Hate to keep saying seasonal trends aren't favorable for this but ... well.. there you are.

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This one is a rough one. We've got 3 different cyclonic circulations surrounding and working in tandem with the main upper low coming across the Appalachians. As each one slightly alters with each model run, the timing of the vertically stacking primary and redevelopment will change too. This makes a huge difference for who gets into the heaviest precipitation and who does not.

The ECMWF/EPS indicate the potential for banding induced snow accumulation early Monday in our south and eastern areas, possibly extending into the I-95 corridor (per EPS). The window may be brief but the timing is looking good, arriving after sunset Sunday.

Assuming the inland / GGEM-like tracks are not as correct, we should have no problems in the mid levels for snow (although I haven't seen profiles). The issue is the low level easterly wind (is that a pseudo-coastal front on the ECMWF Monday AM?) starting Sunday evening into Monday.

There is still time to see changes with this setup to bring the low on the euro further north, but that also means this could go the way of the GGEM. It is possible, though, that with a further north solution, that means the primary holds on longer. This reduces the precipitation amounts/intensity and cold air.

Pretty fine line in this setup and the line got finer because of the calender.

Great post from HM about the storm.

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qpf?

sounds like it may be better for us east of DCA, at least qpf-wise

 

fwiw- about a half inch through the cities. It's drier in the sw areas and delmarva. doesn't mean much. The control adds little value. Unless it shows a blizzard of course.

 

It does have the same idea as the op irt the location of the transfer.

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the GFS switches us all to rain and then back to snow...a strong low over PIT is not a good thing....probably means sleet too

 

Yea, that's a messy look in any winter month. Now that the next season in line will be summer I hope the euro is right.

 

Honestly, the euro has be less of a cut and further south the whole time. Hopefully it's modeling the block and confluence better. We need the transfer to start and finish before the primary passes our latitude. Doesn't matter what the gfs shows temp wise. That type of evolution will be fraught.

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It sure does, but I know you know this it was in the 40's all the way up by the Canadian border with that storm. There is still a slim chance of a decent storm.

3-4 days is an eternity. Ill believe it when I have 1/8 vis and its sticking.

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