WinterWxLuvr Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Extrapolating or even believing the NAM is dangerous business, but I'll bypass sanity and say that it looks interesting at 84 hours. We are talking Sun night into Monday on this thing, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Be careful gloating so early Deb. It's a given that there won't be a HECS. And almost equally unlikely that there will be a "snowstorm" to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It's a given that there won't be a HECS. And almost equally unlikely that there will be a "snowstorm" to speak of. I totally agree with you, i was just warning him about gloating early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 If an AO of -5.6 (current state) can't get the job done in terms of blocking, then we are doomed. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Unbelievers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 If an AO of -5.6 (current state) can't get the job done in terms of blocking, then we are doomed. MDstorm Lowest March AO ever, so sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMarsden Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It's a given that there won't be a HECS. And almost equally unlikely that there will be a "snowstorm" to speak of. There better be a snowstorm. I just purchased a snow blower and got a great deal. Can't wait to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Dang guys, it's Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 AO can be big negative and still have a far west storm track. AO domain space is way north. It shares some with the NAO but just because the ao is big neg doesn't really = a suppressed storm track. That's more the NAO's job. Even a big -ao doesn't guaranty cold. Remember Dec? Craptastic pac and -pna rendered the -ao useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The winter that could never do what it needed to do! We get the blocks - we get the pattern - we really get nothing but pretty clown maps. I think the mountains could eek out some snow out of any system - but we just cannot do it in the low elevations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 AO can be big negative and still have a far west storm track. AO domain space is way north. It shares some with the NAO but just because the ao is big neg doesn't really = a suppressed storm track. That's more the NAO's job. Even a big -ao doesn't guaranty cold. Remember Dec? Craptastic pac and -pna rendered the -ao useless. Someone can check me on this if I'm wrong, but I think it's more correct to say that a big -AO is a "necessary" condition for well-below normal conditions, but it is not a "sufficient" condition. To get the really big cold in our area, we want a +PNA/-EPO/-AO = Siberian express. NAO is not as important, and can even be very positive when we get extreme cold (ala December 89). A -AO/-NAO combination alone is probably good for below normal conditions, but nothing extreme. We really need the Pac to line up right to get the uber-chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z GFS will not be a cutter to Chicago...maybe an Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 gfs looks way south of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 gfs looks way south of 6z congrats us....solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 congrats us....solid hit lol...do you have the advanced frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 lol...do you have the advanced frames? yes...you should be good for your 20th 1-3" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Meh..i'm at 102...not sure I'd call that a solid hit. I mean, it's better than the prior runs crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 CAD impressive for CVA and DC. Not so much for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Meh..i'm at 102...not sure I'd call that a solid hit. I mean, it's better than the prior runs crap. it's a cartopper for us....that's solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 yes...you should be good for your 20th 1-3" event i may never see heavy snow falling ever again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 CAD impressive for CVA and DC. Not so much for RIC. who cares about Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 i may never see heavy snow falling ever again you have like 30" this season..this is a good stats padder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I still don't think the GFS is handling this right. And my reasoning is because I want it to be better and give me snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I still don't think the GFS is handling this right. And my reasoning is because I want it to be better and give me snow. the lesson of this winter...storms can cut into a massive west-based block and will.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 the lesson of this winter...storms can cut into a massive west-based block and will.... Seond lesson of this winter: It's a meteorological impossibility for storms to cut into a massive west-based block. So which lesson is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I'm going to fill in for Ian here and express skepticism of accumulating snowfall on March 25th during the daytime with light precip. Surface temps are above freezing anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I'm going to fill in for Ian here and express skepticism of accumulating snowfall on March 25th during the daytime with light precip. Surface temps are above freezing anyway. not for the thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Just calm down and wait for the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Just calm down and wait for the GGEM. we just need to be patient....plenty of time left to get a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 we just need to be patient....plenty of time left to get a snowstorm How's April 3rd looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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