WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Since the EURO has been right the past few "events" here... I am going to ride the EURO nice and tight. I'm not going to dispute that, but location factors in. There is a local observer here with his own website, weather station info, links, etc. He recorded 0.38 precip yesterday. I had nearly two inches of snow and almost 1/2 inch of sleet. Those two combined make me think we had quite a bit more precip than what the Euro showed. Same with the March 6 snow. 11.5 measured snow with a 6 hour period of light to moderate snow after that was probably, almost definitely over an inch of precip. I don't remember the Euro giving that much precip here for that event either. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Euro is as perfect as its sometimes made out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro d10 has sub-freezing lows in n GA and AL and teens down the apps. Looks like single digits near hudson bay. I'd tap that. That was funny. But that is day 10 and we all know how great the models are that far out, let alone a week past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I don't see how the GFS has it as cold as it does at 5 days. A low to our west and a 1040 high in the NW territory of Canada? How's that supposed to work in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Wouldn't be nice if that ocean low in 36 hours got trapped under the block and surprised us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The 12z Euro seems to have had it very cold 5 days out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The gfs is your drunk uncle during thanksgiving. What a mess. 18z GFS is a back down toward the Euro at least that's the way I choose to see it p.s. no I have not forgotten! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 18z GFS is a back down toward the Euro at least that's the way I choose to see it p.s. no I have not forgotten! I must need to get my eyes (or my entire head) examined, as I see the same thing as you. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The 12z Euro seems to have had it very cold 5 days out as well. All month, we have been talking about how cold it's suppose to be/get... No doubt, it's been chilly, especially compared to last year's March sauna. But by in large, climo and the warm sun have been winning. Not saying a big storm won't draw down some nice cold air, but think we should all give up on this talk of bigtime cold air coming, cause we've been talking about it for a month and it's happen like a total of one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I think the cold air will come -- just look at all the model guidance pointing to it. The problem is if it'll be enough for the storm on the 25th. This is different from the March 5-6 "Noquester" in that it seems at least some cold air will already be in place. A couple of weeks ago, we had to rely on evaporative cooling and the dynamics for cold air, which never really overcame the warm ground temperatures. We'd also have to rely on the big "punch" at the beginning, because, according to the 18z GFS, not much cold air would swing around behind the Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 All month, we have been talking about how cold it's suppose to be/get... No doubt, it's been chilly, especially compared to last year's March sauna. But by in large, climo and the warm sun have been winning. Not saying a big storm won't draw down some nice cold air, but think we should all give up on this talk of bigtime cold air coming, cause we've been talking about it for a month and it's happen like a total of one day. DCA has had 7 days of -5 or greater depatures...that's cold, relative to March climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 DCA has had 7 days of -5 or greater depatures...that's cold, relative to March climoYesterday was supposedly our coldest high this late since 2002. I haven't looked myself but one if the TV mets posted about it.But the gist is still that cold now isn't all that cold. Unless we get a wet gray day we are not getting much below the mid-to-upper 40s in the city. We are quickly adding numbers to climo. If people are waiting for brutal cold it's going to be at least 9 mo or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Yesterday was supposedly our coldest high this late since 2002. I haven't looked myself but one if the TV mets posted about it. But the gist is still that cold now isn't all that cold. Unless we get a wet gray day we are not getting much below the mid-to-upper 40s in the city. We are quickly adding numbers to climo. If people are waiting for brutal cold it's going to be at least 9 mo or so. For the snow obsessed the question for next week, assuming there is a storm, would be "is it cold enough"....brutal cold is usually not a factor in our snowfalls. Temp climo is certainly on the incline, but high 20s/low 30s is not impossible with the right set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It does contribute to the higher climo temperatures, but even by it's self the sun angle is becoming brutal ... even at 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 For the snow obsessed the question for next week, assuming there is a storm, would be "is it cold enough"....brutal cold is usually not a factor in our snowfalls. Temp climo is certainly on the incline, but high 20s/low 30s is not impossible with the right set up. I wasn't necessarily talking about you using the term.. just everyone acts like super duper cold is coming when it's not really. All the locals are like OMG so cold look at those highs near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Nighttime snows can still be biggies and lay down a refrigerant accumulation that helps during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 All models are now a mess. Euro included. The storm has evolved into an unconsolidated mess with no big dominant lp. Still not resolved of course but the perfect storm needed for a march snow is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro folds to GFS, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro folds to GFS, then?In a way but not really. It's the euro's first big jump from run to run. Very flat now. Vort doesn't dig as much and is nothing eye popping. Pitt is the jackpot and that is never a good thing for us. Whole system gets squashed and moves almost due w-e over eastern 3rd of the conus and goes right off the coast. The biggest similarity between the euro/gfs is a messy and disconnected precip shield. Waa to the south and precip from the Ull aren't working together. Biggest difference is the northern extent in the mw/ohv and the euro doesn't really have much redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 One more cycle then I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 One more cycle then I'm out. Looks like we'll stayed modestly interested because both models show precip put in front moving into cad. If it holds, we'll go from rooting for historic to and inch or 2. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 We had another system similar to this a while back. The dual lows, one west, one east of the Apps. I just can't remember exactly when that was. From my limited Euro access, it sure seems it moved toward the GFS. I haven't checked, but wonder what the famous Richmond met is saying about this. He was blasting the GFS in posts over the past couple of days. If it's going to evolve with a midwest component, then we need to hope the initial low is about Lexington, Ky. That way we'd get good precip and take our chances with temps. It looks like the big east coast low idea is becoming less and less likely. Regardless, I hope this is the last threat. It's almost April. Time to move on. Only 7 months until November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 One more cycle then I'm out. Your a better man than me, after last nights Euro I think it is time to bail now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMarsden Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Do you guys think this storm will be named? After what happened to us with Saturn I certainly hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 For once I am happy that the Euro folded. Even a big storm at this point would be nothing but a pain in the ass and then melt the next day. Bring on the torch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It just won't snow in the BWI area in March or April anymore for whatever reason. Four consecutive seasons with no accumulating late season snowfall (which is a record) speaks for itself. I've given up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 All models are now a mess. Euro included. The storm has evolved into an unconsolidated mess with no big dominant lp. Still not resolved of course but the perfect storm needed for a march snow is gone. The 00z GGEM was still good for some of this area. Would likely be a snow to rain back to snow event for much of the Mid-Atlantic. Hits the VA/MD hills NW of DC pretty hard. Hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Always surprising when those day 7-10 HECS don't stay locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Always surprising when those day 7-10 HECS don't stay locked in Be careful gloating so early Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Always surprising when those day 7-10 HECS don't stay locked in True, because we definitely expected it to hold. I'm still in though...if only for the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Always surprising when those day 7-10 HECS don't stay locked in D toda T still locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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