Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I am with you totally, i will take 1-2 sloppy inches with snow flying in the air for an extended period any day of the week. This still will probably be our most exciting event of the year. With proper expectations like this I think there is more upside than downside here. There could easily end up being a favorable precip max on the back side of the secondary. Not the best time of day but could be very fun nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i dunno..it could easily be a 0.12 35 degree failure It sure could if we get caught in the precip dead zone between the 2. Much will come down to the waa shot before the secondary. Get a good dose there and we're happy. If that is an epic fail then the secondary won't be able to save us unless there is divine intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, this has "sunny skies until about 3PM Sunday written all over it". And that translates into mid 40's (or perhaps worse) when precip starts. No trends that I can see look good. My expectations are that we wake Monday morning with a shallow coating of snow and it's down hill after that. I'm betting this past Monday will have been a better event when its said and done. If the NAM is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, this has "sunny skies until about 3PM Sunday written all over it". And that translates into mid 40's (or perhaps worse) when precip starts. No trends that I can see look good. My expectations are that we wake Monday morning with a shallow coating of snow and it's down hill after that. I'm betting this past Monday will have been a better event when its said and done. If the NAM is to be believed. This is our last dance brother. Pick up your instrument and let us play until the ship is submerged. We will play on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This is our last dance brother. Pick up your instrument and let us play until the ship is submerged. We will play on... 6z GFS has a nice storm on April 7th. Word on the street is Bob has taken a home equity loan out to go all in on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If the NAM is to be believed, this has "sunny skies until about 3PM Sunday written all over it". And that translates into mid 40's (or perhaps worse) when precip starts. No trends that I can see look good. My expectations are that we wake Monday morning with a shallow coating of snow and it's down hill after that. I'm betting this past Monday will have been a better event when its said and done. If the NAM is to be believed. Well i did not even get a flurry from that event. The only thing i saw flying in the air was Bob Chill's barf after he got screwed. So i guarantee this event will be better for me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah, upgrade coming in August I believe? I thought the GFS was better down here and just better than it actually is in general. Oh well. Ride the Euro is my game. No, new machine in August. Next big upgrade (and it is really going to be big) is probably a year+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 No, new machine in August. Next big upgrade (and it is really going to be big) is probably a year+ out. Will the new machine make any difference?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 No, new machine in August. Next big upgrade (and it is really going to be big) is probably a year+ out. Oh? Big as in Euro type big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS looks dryyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well i did not even get a flurry from that event. The only thing i saw flying in the air was Bob Chill's barf after he got screwed. So i guarantee this event will be better for me at least. Yeah, you guys saw very little precip on Monday. I think this time you'll do much better in that department, probably better than I will. Hopefully that will make a difference (for the good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 he lives 75 miles west of us in elevation I think he just meant that I'd ride the bus off the cliff with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think he just meant that I'd ride the bus off the cliff with him. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS looks like a debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS looks dryyyyy Oops! Dual lows with the OV low not wanting to give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Oops! Dual lows with the OV low not wanting to give in. Back to running that H5 low up into the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Oh? Big as in Euro type big? I think that's the 4 dvar upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 anyway...The GFS is a lousy run for DC metro Jury still out, but looks meh for everybody so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 anyway...The GFS is a lousy run for DC metro Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Low in OH not dying = rain. Don't worry, King Euro, Lord of Consistency, will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Low in OH not dying = rain. Don't worry, King Euro, Lord of Consistency, will save us. The variability of the GFS and NAM within 48-72 hours of these events lately has been a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Will the new machine make any difference?. glad y'all have the funding as my understanding from your past posts and others is the lag behind the euro was a money/red tape issue more than anything Oh? Big as in Euro type big? The issue is multifaceted, and computing is one aspect of it. The new machine will not make a difference immediately, as we first need to get our current operations ported to the new infrastructure. Once live, the new machine will have more capacity, so we can do more computing. Another issue is just the general research-to-operations process in this country. There was a guest blog post about it in CWG after the 3/6 event (I think) that was spot on. Lastly, there is the general issue that the scope in terms of what we do relative to other centers is so broad. In my humble opinion (this is my opinion only), we need a bit of refocus, reorganization, and streamlining of what we do/produce. By the time we get our "big implementation" in, the ECWMF will have done their thing too. However, if all goes as planned, this will be the biggest jump in spatial resolution we have ever taken, by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS still drops .5+ through the whole area. Unfortunately, verbatim it won't include accum snow for most of us. Long duration strung out mess isn't going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The issue is multifaceted, and computing is one aspect of it. The new machine will not make a difference immediately, as we first need to get our current operations ported to the new infrastructure. Once live, the new machine will have more capacity, so we can do more computing. Another issue is just the general research-to-operations process in this country. There was a guest blog post about it in CWG after the 3/6 event (I think) that was spot on. Lastly, there is the general issue that the scope in terms of what we do relative to other centers is so broad. In my humble opinion (this is my opinion only), we need a bit of refocus, reorganization, and streamlining of what we do/produce. By the time we get our "big implementation" in, the ECWMF will have done their thing too. However, if all goes as planned, this will be the biggest jump in spatial resolution we have ever taken, by far. Thanks for the info Daryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it gives you not an insignificant amount of snow...just rate/temp issues...i also wonder about a warm nose above 800mb..... no reason you can't get a nice grass/deck blanket, take a few pics of the dog and call it a storm As modeled, I agree, but with the variability and trends for the past 18 hours or so, I won't be surprised if the end result is even worse. I'm waiting to see what the Euro shows as it has been at least steady with its forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow, goofus with the big hit here for us along the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Can we please change the title of the thread to possible nuisance storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The variability of the GFS and NAM within 48-72 hours of these events lately has been a sight to see. GFS was good with March 6th as far as consistency. Certainly has been less so on this storm. My sarcasm is mostly directed at DT and the Euro huggers who suggest the Euro chisels a solution into stone on Day 9 and never wavers. Euro has been varying with this storm, just over a smaller parameter space than the GFS. yeah..maybe a period pre-dawn of light snow and 34-35 yeah...without looking at soundings looks like rain/snow mix for us...maybe a pre-dawn period of 33-35 cartopping snow with a 1" report where there is a good band Just sort of interpolating based on the 3-hr NCEP maps, I think our best timing for this run occurs between 9-12z Monday morning when we get some decent precip (0.2-0.3"ish) and our temps are at a minimum. But even then they're above freezing at the surface all the way out to Winterwxluvr-land. Still, with decent rates, that could give a slushy 1" on the grass and certainly snow in the air for people awake to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think we know what the euro will show....above 32 surface most of the time...strung out light precip...and ~0.35" QPF for DC metro which will probably need to be adjusted down a bit...this is looking a lot like a 0.16" mix storm for MBY.... I think I agree on all points. It has shown no real increase in precip for the past two days, as far as I can tell. It also has the warmest temps. Not exactly the winning combo we are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS was good with March 6th as far as consistency. Certainly has been less so on this storm. My sarcasm is mostly directed at DT and the Euro huggers who suggest the Euro chisels a solution into stone on Day 9 and never wavers. Euro has been varying with this storm, just over a smaller parameter space than the GFS. Just sort of interpolating based on the 3-hr NCEP maps, I think our best timing for this run occurs between 9-12z Monday morning when we get some decent precip (0.2-0.3"ish) and our temps are at a minimum. But even then they're above freezing at the surface all the way out to Winterwxluvr-land. Still, with decent rates, that could give a slushy 1" on the grass and certainly snow in the air for people awake to see it. Wonder how many alerts and woofs he'll be throwing out come Sat. night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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