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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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Euro gives iad/dca .22 ish with good temps. Dicey on bookends with light rates. Pretty consistent with location of transfer.

6z gfs is a nice improvement over 0z. I'm glad gfs is tossing the pit primary idea.

We all know how these systems go. Super tough to nail down timing and placement. There will precip busts in both directions for some even at really short range. We're due. DEATHBAND!

Looks like the Euro timing is better, later. Is that correct? If we could slow the GFS timing down by about 6-9 hours we'd have the best precip at night and a better chance I would think.

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Looks like the Euro timing is better, later. Is that correct? If we could slow the GFS timing down by about 6-9 hours we'd have the best precip at night and a better chance I would think.

Euro has the best rates between 6-12z so that should be 2-8am. Light stuff before and after won't do much. Euro has best case timing.

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

I didn't realize the sun makes a difference In the dead of night. I also didn't realize that -5 850s with a freezing surface needed dynamic cooling.
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Euro has the best rates between 6-12z so that should be 2-8am. Light stuff before and after won't do much. Euro has best case timing.

SO what does the Euro have in terms of QPF and temps for DCA and IAD?  I can't tell much from the crappy temporal resolution of the model on the free sites. 

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SO what does the Euro have in terms of QPF and temps for DCA and IAD?  I can't tell much from the crappy temporal resolution of the model on the free sites. 

 

Verbatim, the waa stuff out in front is a wasted strung out mess on the euro. Once the transfer happens there's one good panel and luckily it's during the coldest part of the night/morning. I still hate transfers and trust no #'s on any model. 

 

 

DCA:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.5    -2.6       0.06        MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.6    -4.8       0.03         MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.6    -5.8       0.21     MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.3    -6.3       0.04     

 

IAD:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.0    -2.6        0.02     MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.5    -5.6        0.07    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.0    -6.2        0.22     MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.4    -6.5        0.04     

 

BWI:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.1    -2.9      0.06     MON 06Z 25-MAR   2.6    -5.1      0.01     MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.0    -6.3      0.24     MON 18Z 25-MAR   3.6    -6.1      0.06     
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Verbatim, the waa stuff out in front is a wasted strung out mess on the euro. Once the transfer happens there's one good panel and luckily it's during the coldest part of the night/morning. I still hate transfers and trust no #'s on any model. 

 

 

DCA:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.5    -2.6       0.06        MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.6    -4.8       0.03         MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.6    -5.8       0.21     MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.3    -6.3       0.04     

 

IAD:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.0    -2.6        0.02     MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.5    -5.6        0.07    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.0    -6.2        0.22     MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.4    -6.5        0.04     

 

BWI:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.1    -2.9      0.06     MON 06Z 25-MAR   2.6    -5.1      0.01     MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.0    -6.3      0.24     MON 18Z 25-MAR   3.6    -6.1      0.06     

 

I can accept those incredibly warm surface temps with such ananomously cold 850s because it's the end of March, but we've seen surface temps like that all winter

I mean come on already

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I can accept those incredibly warm surface temps with such ananomously cold 850s because it's the end of March, but we've seen surface temps like that all winter

I mean come on already

Yeah, it sucks.  But 1C or less on the Euro during the peak of the precip will work just fine.  Pre-March 6th Euro progs verified about 1C too warm at the surface.  

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I'm not seeing anything more than a car topper. Sorry. A 1004 off the coast isn't going to drag enough cold in or dynamically cool the column at all. We need a big dynamic beast for anything over 1 inch. Not going to be significant with the march sun anyway.

You weenies need to stop dreaming.

 

You can say that again.

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Looking at the 6 Z gfs at an hour 90, it wouldn't take too much of an adjustment to get the darker green over our entire area.

Problem with the GFS is that 90 hour panel is showing the precip from 2PM to 8PM.  Not the best time of day.  That's why I posted about timing.  If that's 6 hours later, we're probably in good shape.

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But we can't get a storm like that this late in the season.plus what is the difference? It isn't going to be 60 anyway. I guess I just don't understand your line of commentary in this thread.

 

We can.  Is it likely?  No.  Chances are single digits.  But we can.    We're 4th and 20th and the score is 54 to 7.

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Id just stick to the euro on this one. GFS and nam will obviously be too wet and cold.

I'm learning that that is the way to go.  What's baffling me a bit on this one is the difference in the timing on the Euro vs. the others.

 

The GFS and NAM were pretty good (precip) on Monday's event here, so, I guess that factors in.

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It would be a 1 in 100 year storm....

in a winter that has broken the streak for the longest period w/o 2" or more at DCA

therefore, imho, it's not a 1% chance, it's a 1% chance multiplied by another 1% = 0.0001 or 1/100th of 1%

 

iow, people often bring up 3/58, but don't mention the fact that the winter of 57/58 was NINO a lot more like 86/87 and 09/10

 

sure, I want it to snow and "yes" I'll be watching, but it is hard to get excited short of a modeled HECS if for no other reason we need that kind of "breathing room" on the models just to come away with the illusive 2"+

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thnx for the link.  interesting read, ian.  cruel fateful words about being on the way to breaking the 2" drought, however.

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I enjoy snow...the other day when it fell for a couple hours in the morning was nice...I only got a 0.1 or 0.2, but it covered the flowers/bushes and was enough to make a snowball off the cartops..I am going to enjoy it if it snows...I think that is a lot more rational than thinking we are in some collective battle to get a big march storm...I've posted plenty of climo stats on different people's backyards recently and they've pretty much been ignored,...even Ji who is being typical Ji has some legitimacy that he could get a 4" type storm where he is..of course he has 15-18" this season and I have 3"

 

I am guessing mitch's frustration right about now is that he can't even get what you got the other day. Absolutely nothing, not even flurries, up this way.

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I enjoy snow...the other day when it fell for a couple hours in the morning was nice...I only got a 0.1 or 0.2, but it covered the flowers/bushes and was enough to make a snowball off the cartops..I am going to enjoy it if it snows...I think that is a lot more rational than thinking we are in some collective battle to get a big march storm...I've posted plenty of climo stats on different people's backyards recently and they've pretty much been ignored,...even Ji who is being typical Ji has some legitimacy that he could get a 4" type storm where he is..of course he has 15-18" this season and I have 3"

 

I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying here....I think we all enjoy snow and want it to snow as long as it possibly can.   I loved walking to work in the falling snow the other day.   

 

I know I'm more likely to marry Tyson Beckford than seeing a late season snow event on Monday.  I'll enjoy any snow that falls, but I can't pretend to be excited for another cartopper.  

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Not sure how much snow you have this season...I have 3"...

 

I am just ahead of you thanks to that very slight over-performing 12/26 snow up here (think I have logged 5.4 inches on the snow totals thread). I am not begrudging you the cartopper the other day, just noting that from BWI up to Phin up  I-95, it has been hard to even get a pity flake for the last month.

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