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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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sure looked promising on Day 5 eyeballing the Plymouth maps

Day 6 has a 996 slp right off HAT, so it's close

I bet the ensembles will show more of a hit

You are probably right. If I am not mistaken the last 3 runs of the ensembles have been NW of the Op.

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ensemble mean still goes up the coast tho it's moved toward having an OV low as well. decent event 95 and NW as is.

 

edit: i guess it had the ov low last night too.. didnt look till now.

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ensemble mean still goes up the coast tho it's moved toward having an OV low as well. decent event 95 and NW as is.

edit: i guess it had the ov low last night too.. didnt look till now.

yea, last nights euro looked just like the best case ohv gfs scenario from a few runs back. Still a zillion miles to go but I do take some comfort in the euro taking it back below us. The weenie side of me wants to believe the goal posts have been set by the euro....lol

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Looking at the 12Z suite, it looks like the GFS is on its own with a strong primary driving fairly far north and very late re-development.  Most of the other guidance shows re-development off of the mid-atlantic coast.  Unfortunately for the DC crew, the mid-atlantic re-development is a little too far SE.  We are still 5-6 days away, so there is plenty of time for more teasing and heartache (except for those that have already bailed :bag: )

 

MDstorm

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You weenies are insane sun angle has already finished this storm:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/solcalc/azel.html

Solar Declination at #noquestration -4.95!!!! Solar Declation for next "storm" +2.95.

Flakes will be catching on fire as they fly through the sky. If it comes at night and sticks be sure to put on spf 15 in the am when you shovel, or just wait 20 minutes for it to burn off.
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yea, last nights euro looked just like the best case ohv gfs scenario from a few runs back. Still a zillion miles to go but I do take some comfort in the euro taking it back below us. The weenie side of me wants to believe the goal posts have been set by the euro....lol

Since the EURO has been right the past few "events" here... I am going to ride the EURO nice and tight.

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18z gfs just said block is strong and don't know what to do so I'll spit out all kinds of crazy lows. Love the first transfer. It's like giving birth to a baby. And then the second one is another offspring while the primary wobbles around. 

 

I'll take the euro but enjoy the gfs' attempts at figure out what to do with relatively slow flow underneath a nasty block and a slow rolling bowling ball. 

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18z gfs just said block is strong and don't know what to do so I'll spit out all kinds of crazy lows. Love the first transfer. It's like giving birth to a baby. And then the second one is another offspring while the primary wobbles around.

I'll take the euro but enjoy the gfs' attempts at figure out what to do with relatively slow flow underneath a nasty block and a slow rolling bowling ball.

The gfs is your drunk uncle during thanksgiving. What a mess.

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