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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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Euro is pretty much an all snow sounding @ IAD. That's the only local sounding I can see. Temps below freezing just off the surface and colder as you go further up the column. 

 

Surface winds N-NE. No E or ENE or anything like that. 

 

I'm personally expecting a no-go here. Now that consensus is forming for a cut and re-develop, I just don't see how it works out in late march. I hope I'm wrong of course. 

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I'm personally expecting a no-go here. Now that consensus is forming for a cut and re-develop, I just don't see how it works out in late march. I hope I'm wrong of course. 

Cut and re-develop is hard to work in January, let alone March 25ish.  I could very easily see 12 hours of non-accumulating snow or RASN just like March 6th.  With the blocking and a high to the north, I doubt even in a "warm" scenario our temps get above the low 40s with this storm.  

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Euro isn't all that bad at the surface. Really good at 850. Can't put much stock in these #'s obviously becaue it's so dependent on how the lp evolves. That wont be known for days. At least for now nothing can be written off. Confidence in a low confidence event has been shaken but still worth a daily look. 

 

Here's IAD. Cuts off @ d7 on text:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.1    -6.1    1012      85     100    0.12     549     540    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -4.3    1006      96     100    0.45     544     538    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.2    -5.2    1012      94      93    0.37     544     534    
 
Here's DCA:
 
MON 12Z 25-MAR   2.0    -5.1    1011      84     100    0.11     550     541    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.1    1006      98     100    0.40     544     540    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.6    -4.6    1011      94      93    0.37     543     535    

 

Just for giggles...here's CHO. The new model snow capital of the MA:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.2    -5.3    1010      86     100    0.31     548     540    MON 18Z 25-MAR   0.9    -4.9    1005      94     100    0.64     540     536    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.6    -4.9    1012      90      87    0.49     544     534    

not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol

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not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol

 

It's close to 600' in elevation vs 300+/- for IAD and in a good cad spot for ne winds. CHO would be closer to the ull as well. But this is all hair splitting stuff anyways and I agree about things starting to look like snowlessfesturd

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It's close to 600' in elevation vs 300+/- for IAD and in a good cad spot for ne winds. CHO would be closer to the ull as well. But this is all hair splitting stuff anyways and I agree about things starting to look like snowlessfesturd

Actually, Bob, it's worse than that really. Most of Charlottesville is 750'+. The UVA observatory (Charlottesville coop station) is actually 866'.

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First, much of the area is not DC proper.  Second, I don't know where this idea that a cut and redevelop can't work.  It can work, it worked yesterday (without the redevelop I guess).  If you have CAD you can pull that off.  Maybe not DC, but everybody isn't DC.  What won't work is a low in Iowa or Illinois.  It has to be close enough to throw good precip in.  Like Kentucky or Ohio close.  In fact, for some of us, it's the most reliable of all scenarios.  We never topped freezing yesterday.  On the March 6 storm with a low to our southeast, we almost didn't stay below 40.

 

I'll take the 6z gfs right now.

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not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol

iow, same ole' pattern

the question we need to ask is "what is different" this time?

those Euro numbers indicate to me little or nothing to make a difference in the end

I guess one can hope if one chooses, but....

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Us balt area folks that couldn't even get a pity flake yesterday may need their own thread. But, yeah, winterwx, maybe another front end thump cashes you in yet again. Awesome.

Well, I did qualify my statement that DC is different.  I guess I should have add Baltimore.

 

Do you think you would have had snow yesterday morning if you had had good precip?  That's where the focus has to be IMO.  You have to have good precip.  You aren't going to get it from a low in Illinois.  You need a low that's closer.  If it's in Ky and you have CAD you're going to have a shot.  If that low is off Va Beach you're going to get SE winds I would think.  That scenario didn't play too well for you guys about 2 weeks ago.  I'd think you'd want big CAD and a strong sw moisture feed for the precip.

 

Doesn't matter what I think anyway.  Who knows what this looks like in a few days.

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The Euro I can see with limited access doesn't look to be too far from pretty good.

 

It's similar to the first signs of redevelopment on the gfs. primary into ky and redevelopment off the seva/nc coast. Keeps the column cool. The notable thing is it looks like the gfs in some important respects. If a transfer scenario really does become locked in then expectations should be reduced to a notable event at best but still nothing exciting. 

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It's similar to the first signs of redevelopment on the gfs. primary into ky and redevelopment off the seva/nc coast. Keeps the column cool. The notable thing is it looks like the gfs in some important respects. If a transfer scenario really does become locked in then expectations should be reduced to a notable event at best but still nothing exciting. 

Well, we'll just have to be in different camps on that one.  If that low can get into central Ky, and we can get CAD that's strong enough, a redevelopment south of us could be decent.  It didn't work well for everyone at Christmas, but that doesn't mean it can't work now.  I'd say the ocean is probably colder right now than it was in December.  It may even be colder (air mass)  leading up to this than it was in December.

 

Just a conversation piece right now anyway.

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iow, same ole' pattern

the question we need to ask is "what is different" this time?

those Euro numbers indicate to me little or nothing to make a difference in the end

I guess one can hope if one chooses, but....

 

What's different is that we'll be past the equinox and it's about time for f'ing spring.

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I call BS, you do not cruise the forums in the spring like this. You really want a nice snowstorm, that is the only reason you are here. The truth will set you free Mitch :).

I'm here like I've been saying for years every March...habit

this has been the winter of disappointment   enough already

but like almost every evil NINA, we get a cold March like this one, too cold for outside stuff and too warm for snow

it is what it is, and tomorrow it is spring, so let's have it

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