Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro is pretty much an all snow sounding @ IAD. That's the only local sounding I can see. Temps below freezing just off the surface and colder as you go further up the column. Surface winds N-NE. No E or ENE or anything like that. I'm personally expecting a no-go here. Now that consensus is forming for a cut and re-develop, I just don't see how it works out in late march. I hope I'm wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I'm personally expecting a no-go here. Now that consensus is forming for a cut and re-develop, I just don't see how it works out in late march. I hope I'm wrong of course. Cut and re-develop is hard to work in January, let alone March 25ish. I could very easily see 12 hours of non-accumulating snow or RASN just like March 6th. With the blocking and a high to the north, I doubt even in a "warm" scenario our temps get above the low 40s with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro isn't all that bad at the surface. Really good at 850. Can't put much stock in these #'s obviously becaue it's so dependent on how the lp evolves. That wont be known for days. At least for now nothing can be written off. Confidence in a low confidence event has been shaken but still worth a daily look. Here's IAD. Cuts off @ d7 on text: MON 12Z 25-MAR 1.1 -6.1 1012 85 100 0.12 549 540 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -4.3 1006 96 100 0.45 544 538 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.2 -5.2 1012 94 93 0.37 544 534 Here's DCA: MON 12Z 25-MAR 2.0 -5.1 1011 84 100 0.11 550 541 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.0 -4.1 1006 98 100 0.40 544 540 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.6 -4.6 1011 94 93 0.37 543 535 Just for giggles...here's CHO. The new model snow capital of the MA: MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.2 -5.3 1010 86 100 0.31 548 540 MON 18Z 25-MAR 0.9 -4.9 1005 94 100 0.64 540 536 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.6 -4.9 1012 90 87 0.49 544 534 not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol It's close to 600' in elevation vs 300+/- for IAD and in a good cad spot for ne winds. CHO would be closer to the ull as well. But this is all hair splitting stuff anyways and I agree about things starting to look like snowlessfesturd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It's close to 600' in elevation vs 300+/- for IAD and in a good cad spot for ne winds. CHO would be closer to the ull as well. But this is all hair splitting stuff anyways and I agree about things starting to look like snowlessfesturd Actually, Bob, it's worse than that really. Most of Charlottesville is 750'+. The UVA observatory (Charlottesville coop station) is actually 866'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Look, we had a daunting task to begin with. I'm not as optimistic as i once was for a late season last gasp. Every time the block is modeled to be "extreme", it gets less so with each successive run of the models and storms that were supposedly impossible to cut west do just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 First, much of the area is not DC proper. Second, I don't know where this idea that a cut and redevelop can't work. It can work, it worked yesterday (without the redevelop I guess). If you have CAD you can pull that off. Maybe not DC, but everybody isn't DC. What won't work is a low in Iowa or Illinois. It has to be close enough to throw good precip in. Like Kentucky or Ohio close. In fact, for some of us, it's the most reliable of all scenarios. We never topped freezing yesterday. On the March 6 storm with a low to our southeast, we almost didn't stay below 40. I'll take the 6z gfs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Us balt area folks that couldn't even get a pity flake yesterday may need their own thread. But, yeah, winterwx, maybe another front end thump cashes you in yet again. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 D+8 and D+11 upper air analogs show up with 5 dates in the 3/17-3/27 1958 range. That was the same time period that we had two snowstorms here in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 not sure when CHO decided to become colder than IAD. Maybe its because of more precip. This looks exactly lilke snow quester junk only 3 weeks later lol iow, same ole' pattern the question we need to ask is "what is different" this time? those Euro numbers indicate to me little or nothing to make a difference in the end I guess one can hope if one chooses, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Us balt area folks that couldn't even get a pity flake yesterday may need their own thread. But, yeah, winterwx, maybe another front end thump cashes you in yet again. Awesome. Well, I did qualify my statement that DC is different. I guess I should have add Baltimore. Do you think you would have had snow yesterday morning if you had had good precip? That's where the focus has to be IMO. You have to have good precip. You aren't going to get it from a low in Illinois. You need a low that's closer. If it's in Ky and you have CAD you're going to have a shot. If that low is off Va Beach you're going to get SE winds I would think. That scenario didn't play too well for you guys about 2 weeks ago. I'd think you'd want big CAD and a strong sw moisture feed for the precip. Doesn't matter what I think anyway. Who knows what this looks like in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The Euro I can see with limited access doesn't look to be too far from pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The Euro I can see with limited access doesn't look to be too far from pretty good. It's similar to the first signs of redevelopment on the gfs. primary into ky and redevelopment off the seva/nc coast. Keeps the column cool. The notable thing is it looks like the gfs in some important respects. If a transfer scenario really does become locked in then expectations should be reduced to a notable event at best but still nothing exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It's similar to the first signs of redevelopment on the gfs. primary into ky and redevelopment off the seva/nc coast. Keeps the column cool. The notable thing is it looks like the gfs in some important respects. If a transfer scenario really does become locked in then expectations should be reduced to a notable event at best but still nothing exciting. Well, we'll just have to be in different camps on that one. If that low can get into central Ky, and we can get CAD that's strong enough, a redevelopment south of us could be decent. It didn't work well for everyone at Christmas, but that doesn't mean it can't work now. I'd say the ocean is probably colder right now than it was in December. It may even be colder (air mass) leading up to this than it was in December. Just a conversation piece right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I think the problem here is that the euro shows the best case for us in a redevelopment scenario. It can only get worse unless the block flexes and keeps the primary from driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 iow, same ole' pattern the question we need to ask is "what is different" this time? those Euro numbers indicate to me little or nothing to make a difference in the end I guess one can hope if one chooses, but.... What's different is that we'll be past the equinox and it's about time for f'ing spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 "snowlessfesturd". What a gem. Kinda describes what most feel MA winter has been like. If anything, this forum has set the bar for high quality banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 What's different is that we'll be past the equinox and it's about time for f'ing spring. I'm witcha' on dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I'm witcha' on dat I call BS, you do not cruise the forums in the spring like this. You really want a nice snowstorm, that is the only reason you are here. The truth will set you free Mitch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I'm with Ian on this one. You weenies are out of control. This thing has rainstorm written all over it, regardless of 6 day models. Climo wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I call BS, you do not cruise the forums in the spring like this. You really want a nice snowstorm, that is the only reason you are here. The truth will set you free Mitch . I'm here like I've been saying for years every March...habit this has been the winter of disappointment enough already but like almost every evil NINA, we get a cold March like this one, too cold for outside stuff and too warm for snow it is what it is, and tomorrow it is spring, so let's have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Blocking looking better on the GFS compared to 6z so far. But we're only at 87hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Chicago cut again. CAD signal is strong....but no precip to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GFS hates us. Again. Hopefully it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Don't worry, Euro will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 [DT]Meteorologically impossible[/DT] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 actually on second look this is pretty legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Forget the HECS and go all-in on the Wednesday night SECF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 actually on second look this is pretty legit gfs_namer_141_precip_ptot.gif This map makes me want to pack it up and head back to Louisiana. At least there I know there is no hope, and thus no chance to get snow-holed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 [DT]Meteorologically impossible[/DT] What happened to the block from God? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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