Bobby EPAWA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 New GFS also suggests an inch or so of snow back home later this afternoon. Noticeably colder aloft, more EC like, could be 2-3" if it wasn't for the warming BL. I apologize if I missed it earlier Ray, but what would be your call/thoughts for: PHL TTN ABE MPO AVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I apologize if I missed it earlier Ray, but what would be your call/thoughts for: PHL TTN ABE MPO AVP I don't really make calls for anywhere besides TTN for several reasons: 1) 100% of my immediate family lives within 10 minutes of TTN, and 95% of my extended family lives within 20 minutes of TTN. 2) Certain products I use for the winter storm archive are best saved in real-time, so I need to know in advance if an event (characterized by 1" or more at TTN) is possible/expected. 3) I don't want to compete with my local compatriots more than I have to (with what I "have to" do being defined by the first two reasons). That having been said... right now I'm expecting somewhere between a coating and 2 inches at TTN. I would therefore expect more at ABE, more than that at MPO, and a similar or slightly higher amount than that at AVP. Less at PHL. Now point a gun at my head and I'll give you actual numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I don't really make calls for anywhere besides TTN for several reasons: 1) 100% of my immediate family lives within 10 minutes of TTN, and 95% of my extended family lives within 20 minutes of TTN. 2) Certain products I use for the winter storm archive are best saved in real-time, so I need to know in advance if an event (characterized by 1" or more at TTN) is possible/expected. 3) I don't want to compete with my local compatriots more than I have to (with what I "have to" do being defined by the first two reasons). That having been said... right now I'm expecting somewhere between a coating and 2 inches at TTN. I would therefore expect more at ABE, more than that at MPO, and a similar or slightly higher amount than that at AVP. Less at PHL. Now point a gun at my head and I'll give you actual numbers Haha no guns... but LOVE the disclaimer... lol. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 12z data gets even more wintry temps now forecasted to stay below freezing here till around 730am tomorrow by which time 0.90" of precip has fallen - 2 to 4 inches of Snow/IP and then ZR on top ending with 0.27" of plain rain after 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 heavy precip slowly sliding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Anyone seeing anything fall out of those light echoes developing in S NJ and PHL area? I'd guess it might be drizzle but haven't seen confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Anyone seeing anything fall out of those light echoes developing in S NJ and PHL area? I'd guess it might be drizzle but haven't seen confirmation. yes, lgt drizzle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yes, lgt drizzle here Indeed. If it does snow later those flakes will be pretty rimey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The radar and temps seem real good for the Lehigh Valley. I think 2-3 inches seems very do-able . Any thoughts from my fellow lv'ers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The radar and temps seem real good for the Lehigh Valley. I think 2-3 inches seems very do-able . Any thoughts from my fellow lv'ers? Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s at 36 ..ATM precipitation having a hard time filling in. Precipitation to the west should move over the region ..thinking will have a hard time accumulating so going with a Trace to around an inch at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Interestingly temps have been falling from their midday highs back home, down 4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s at 36 ..ATM precipitation having a hard time filling in. Precipitation to the west should move over the region ..thinking will have a hard time accumulating so going with a Trace to around an inch at best Completely agree. Even more likely down here, currently R- in Thorndale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah noticed Qtown now 33f, temps dropping. could fall fast and hard once it starts for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s at 36 ..ATM precipitation having a hard time filling in. Precipitation to the west should move over the region ..thinking will have a hard time accumulating so going with a Trace to around an inch at bestits 32 here. i think if it comes hard enough it will stick quickly as its been rather cold the last three days and its coming in toward evening. I can't say the same for you in allentown. You might be just a touch bit warmer than here in Palmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ABE/airport is 35 at 2:51pm, however in South Allentown a temperature drop of 2.1° in the past hour from 36.2° to 34.1° I am sticking with the RGEM with a 2-3" final total at ABE. Radar should fill in with the best lift occurring 4pm to 10pm to support snowfall. PL after 10pm... RN/PL 11pm... RN midnight onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ABE/airport is 35 at 2:51pm, however in South Allentown a temperature drop of 2.1° in the past hour from 36.2° to 34.1° I am sticking with the RGEM with a 2-3" final total at ABE. Radar should fill in with the best lift occurring 4pm to 10pm to support snowfall. PL after 10pm... RN/PL 11pm... RN midnight onward. Nice. Thank You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The other day when we had 1.1 inches of snow ..that was moderate snow at times with big flakes and it did not stick on anything but the grass and it had a hard time at doing that and it was gone the next morning...Temperatures were about the same then as they are now ..and we have an east wind..and that fell at night time as well . Problem is the ground is warmer from the warm weather that we had .. which is one reason why i think it will have a difficult time accumulating... March sun angle is a killer .. its 32 here.i think if it comes hard enough it will stick quickly as its been rather cold the last three days and its coming in toward evening.I can't say the same for you in allentown. You might be just a touch bit warmer than here in Palmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The other day when we had 1.1 inches of snow ..that was moderate snow at times with big flakes and it did not stick on anything but the grass and it had a hard time at doing that and it was gone the next morning...Temperatures were about the same then as they are now ..and we have an east wind..and that fell at night time as well . Problem is the ground is warmer from the warm weather that we had .. which is one reason why i think it will have a difficult time accumulating... March sun angle is a killer .. I know its a killer but we had six or so inches here in 2007 so anything is possible! If i hit 3 inches, i will post a picture. Good luck in a-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm told that the significant echoes advancing across eastern WV and western MD have sleet... apparently the freezing rain MRB ASOS is reporting and the rain HGR ASOS reports is actually sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 well around 3pm saturday is when we started have the flakes stick to the roadway and caused a mess. this precip is moving in later. i still had snow on the ground at home this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm told that the significant echoes advancing across eastern WV and western MD have sleet... apparently the freezing rain MRB ASOS is reporting and the rain HGR ASOS reports is actually sleet. Any thoughts for ABE and points east? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 down to 31 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 not sure how accurate this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Light sleet dancing on the hood of my car in SoMoCo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Getting some light rain here in Center City. Cloud deck seems to be lowering across the skyscrapers -- perhaps snow just a few hundred feet up. But I'm only on the fourth floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Rutgers radar seems to be drying up a little. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?≠=anim&radar=Northeast. Looks like the northern stream storm is not interacting with the other storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Any thoughts for ABE and points east? thanks Not any different from what I posted already... more than "a coating to 2 inches" but that's very ambiguous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Rutgers radar seems to be drying up a little. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?≠=anim&radar=Northeast. Looks like the northern stream storm is not interacting with the other storm. Thank you for that link, I'll be using it more regularly myself now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Light drizzle here for the past hour or so. Temps are around 38 F (according to my car thermometer so take that with a grain of salt). It would seem that the drizzle is just heavy enough to "consume" what's left of the low dew points and ensure that we see nary a flake and/or sleet pellet when things finally get a bit heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Temps slowly dropping now down to 34.8 - topped out at 35.6 at 3pm. Looks like some very light mist begining to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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