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3/18-3/19 OBS

Quakertown needs snow

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Bobby EPAWA

Bobby EPAWA

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 3:36 PM, famartin said:

New GFS also suggests an inch or so of snow back home later this afternoon.  Noticeably colder aloft, more EC like, could be 2-3" if it wasn't for the warming BL.

 

I apologize if I missed it earlier Ray, but what would be your call/thoughts for:

 

PHL

TTN

ABE

MPO

AVP

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 3:45 PM, Bobby EPAWA said:

I apologize if I missed it earlier Ray, but what would be your call/thoughts for:

 

PHL

TTN

ABE

MPO

AVP

I don't really make calls for anywhere besides TTN for several reasons:

 

1) 100% of my immediate family lives within 10 minutes of TTN, and 95% of my extended family lives within 20 minutes of TTN.

2) Certain products I use for the winter storm archive are best saved in real-time, so I need to know in advance if an event (characterized by 1" or more at TTN) is possible/expected.

3) I don't want to compete with my local compatriots more than I have to (with what I "have to" do being defined by the first two reasons).

 

That having been said... right now I'm expecting somewhere between a coating and 2 inches at TTN.  I would therefore expect more at ABE, more than that at MPO, and a similar or slightly higher amount than that at AVP.  Less at PHL. 

 

Now point a gun at my head and I'll give you actual numbers ;)

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Bobby EPAWA

Bobby EPAWA

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 4:00 PM, famartin said:

I don't really make calls for anywhere besides TTN for several reasons:

 

1) 100% of my immediate family lives within 10 minutes of TTN, and 95% of my extended family lives within 20 minutes of TTN.

2) Certain products I use for the winter storm archive are best saved in real-time, so I need to know in advance if an event (characterized by 1" or more at TTN) is possible/expected.

3) I don't want to compete with my local compatriots more than I have to (with what I "have to" do being defined by the first two reasons).

 

That having been said... right now I'm expecting somewhere between a coating and 2 inches at TTN.  I would therefore expect more at ABE, more than that at MPO, and a similar or slightly higher amount than that at AVP.  Less at PHL. 

 

Now point a gun at my head and I'll give you actual numbers ;)

 

Haha no guns... but LOVE the disclaimer... lol.  Thank you.

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 6:50 PM, mcgin said:

The radar and temps seem real good for the Lehigh Valley. I think 2-3 inches seems very do-able . Any thoughts from my fellow lv'ers?

Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s at 36 ..ATM precipitation having a hard time filling in. Precipitation to the west should move over the region ..thinking will have a hard time accumulating so going with a Trace to around an inch at best

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White_Mtn_Wx

White_Mtn_Wx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 6:55 PM, atownwxwatcher said:

Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s at 36 ..ATM precipitation having a hard time filling in. Precipitation to the west should move over the region ..thinking will have a hard time accumulating so going with a Trace to around an inch at best

Completely agree. Even more likely down here, currently R- in Thorndale

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mcgin

mcgin

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 6:55 PM, atownwxwatcher said:

Temperatures hovering in the mid 30s at 36 ..ATM precipitation having a hard time filling in. Precipitation to the west should move over the region ..thinking will have a hard time accumulating so going with a Trace to around an inch at best

its 32 here.

i think if it comes hard enough it will stick quickly as its been rather cold the last three days and its coming in toward evening.

I can't say the same for you in allentown. You might be just a touch bit warmer than here in Palmer.

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Bobby EPAWA

Bobby EPAWA

Posted
Posted

ABE/airport is 35 at 2:51pm, however in South Allentown a temperature drop of 2.1° in the past hour from 36.2° to 34.1°

 

I am sticking with the RGEM with a 2-3" final total at ABE.  Radar should fill in with the best lift occurring 4pm to 10pm to support snowfall.  PL after 10pm... RN/PL 11pm... RN midnight onward.

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mcgin

mcgin

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 7:06 PM, Bobby EPAWA said:

ABE/airport is 35 at 2:51pm, however in South Allentown a temperature drop of 2.1° in the past hour from 36.2° to 34.1°

I am sticking with the RGEM with a 2-3" final total at ABE. Radar should fill in with the best lift occurring 4pm to 10pm to support snowfall. PL after 10pm... RN/PL 11pm... RN midnight onward.

Nice. Thank You
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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

The other day when we had 1.1 inches of snow ..that was moderate snow at times with big flakes and it did not stick on anything but the grass and it had a hard time at doing that and it was gone the next morning...Temperatures were about the same then as they are now ..and we have an east wind..and that fell at night time as well . Problem is the ground is warmer from the warm weather that we had .. which is one reason why i think it will have a difficult time accumulating... March sun angle is a killer ..

  On 3/18/2013 at 7:04 PM, mcgin said:

its 32 here.
i think if it comes hard enough it will stick quickly as its been rather cold the last three days and its coming in toward evening.
I can't say the same for you in allentown. You might be just a touch bit warmer than here in Palmer.

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mcgin

mcgin

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 7:10 PM, atownwxwatcher said:

The other day when we had 1.1 inches of snow ..that was moderate snow at times with big flakes and it did not stick on anything but the grass and it had a hard time at doing that and it was gone the next morning...Temperatures were about the same then as they are now ..and we have an east wind..and that fell at night time as well . Problem is the ground is warmer from the warm weather that we had .. which is one reason why i think it will have a difficult time accumulating... March sun angle is a killer ..

I know its a killer but we had six or so inches here in 2007 so anything is possible! If i hit 3 inches, i will post a picture. Good luck in a-town.

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mcgin

mcgin

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2013 at 7:15 PM, famartin said:

I'm told that the significant echoes advancing across eastern WV and western MD have sleet... apparently the freezing rain MRB ASOS is reporting and the rain HGR ASOS reports is actually sleet.

Any thoughts for ABE and points east? thanks

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Light drizzle here for the past hour or so. Temps are around 38 F (according to my car thermometer so take that with a grain of salt). It would seem that the drizzle is just heavy enough to "consume" what's left of the low dew points and ensure that we see nary a flake and/or sleet pellet when things finally get a bit heavier.

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