Quakertown needs snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Round 2 coming up! 12Z Nam not warming up much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I was thinking 1-3" for TTN earlier... but I think I may back off to coating-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Round 2 coming up! 12Z Nam not warming up much Ill day 2-4" Lehigh valley northward, mainly on non paved, slushy inch or 2 on roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chester County has light snow arriving by 9am - mainly light snow thru around 3pm then heavy snow mixing with sleet by 6pm with around 4" of snow/sleet before changing to ZR by 8pm and then to plain rain by 10pm. with 0.70" falling as frozen and another 0.35" falling with temps just above freezing in the NW Philly burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 trace below the Turnpike/195. coating between the Turnpike/195 and Doylestown/Lansdale/Pottstown/Lancaster 1-2 north of that to Blue Mountain 2-5 above Blue Mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 good old euro cutting back frozen qpf totals, maybe it will be wrong again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 18z NAM incorporated has light snow after noon getting heavy in the NW Philly burbs by evening rush hour with temps falling below freezing by 430pm with heavy snow mixing with and changing to heavy sleet with 4" of snow and sleet accumulating by 10pm with temps at that time at 31.5. Freezing rain by 1030pm continuing till about 1am before changing to plain rain - 0.67" falling as frozen with another 0.35" as rain before ending by tuesday AM rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 18z NAM incorporated has light snow after noon getting heavy in the NW Philly burbs by evening rush hour with temps falling below freezing by 430pm with heavy snow mixing with and changing to heavy sleet with 4" of snow and sleet accumulating by 10pm with temps at that time at 31.5. Freezing rain by 1030pm continuing till about 1am before changing to plain rain - 0.67" falling as frozen with another 0.35" as rain before ending by tuesday AM rush hour this is the most realistic forecast yet. I still see the LV squeezing 6" out of this before change over to sleet/freezing rain. The Euro has been calling it for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 this is the most realistic forecast yet. I still see the LV squeezing 6" out of this before change over to sleet/freezing rain. The Euro has been calling it for days now. That's not the EC's current forecast, which has ABE's 850 temp up to +1.7C after only 0.40" falls. So, at the very best, 4", most likely 2-3", if the EC is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Waking up to 21 degrees in Tamaqua this morning. Whatever falls from the sky will be frozen, at least at the onset of the festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 0Z EC is decidedly snowier overall. A few inches at TTN, 4-7" at ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro on its own at this point? GFS/NAM really don't seem to support it being that snowy that far south (they do show snow...just not that much even down into the burbs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro on its own at this point? GFS/NAM really don't seem to support it being that snowy that far south (they do show snow...just not that much even down into the burbs). Has some support from the UKMET. It'll be interesting to see what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 24.7f, cold enough for 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Cold start, 21/17. Will see how much cold hangs on through afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Latest Wxsim has quite the mess for NW Chester County - little surprised no WWA for Western Chesco so would imagine Wxsim will not verify but it has light snow arriving by 11am becoming heavy by 230pm changing to heavy sleet and slowly over to ZR - temps do not climb above freezing till around midnight. 0.85 inches falling as frozen with 2 or 3 inches of snow followed by ice.....another 0.35in after midnight with temps just above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Pressure is slowly rising with drier air continuing to advect south... not a bad sign in advance of potential snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Cloudy Temp 27.8 DP 16.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Obviously the convective blob in the Ohio Valley is the place to watch... the initial shot has totally been eaten by the dry air/confluence. Model temps are close, which is interesting considering the large differences which crop up by 0Z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Not much mention of the RGEM which has been steadfast and consistent with this system and looks more realistic across PA especially. Not sure what they did to improve/upgrade the GGEM, but whatever it was worked. The March 7th no show system... nailed it. Saturday's clipper... nailed it. This system... has had virtually the same output for the past 72 hours and consistent run to run. May be my new go-to model of choice for short-range Wintry events if this keeps up. This is the 06z RGEM snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 New NAM still suggests up to an inch of snow may fall back home... I'll keep my coating to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Call me crazy, but, with the way these low dew points are drying things out, we may not see anything (wet, white or otherwise) fall from the sky until later tonight. To my very untrained eye, the non-weenie radars look like the closest precip that will actually reach us AND reach the ground is still in Ohio and West Virginia. I may need permission to stay up past my bed time tonight if I want to see anything falling from the sky.... and for those of us in the I-95 corridor just hoping to see a wet flake or three before the changeover... well, that may be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z NAM extraction snowfall amounts by location:PHL - Trace TTN - 1.0" MDT - 2.0" EWR - 2.0" RDG - 2.5" UKT - 2.5" ABE - 3.0" AVP - 4.5" MPO - 6.0" IPT - 6.0" FWN (Sussex NJ) - 6.5" CTP - 8.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Call me crazy, but, with the way these low dew points are drying things out, we may not see anything (wet, white or otherwise) fall from the sky until later tonight. To my very untrained eye, the non-weenie radars look like the closest precip that will actually reach us AND reach the ground is still in Ohio and West Virginia. I may need permission to stay up past my bed time tonight if I want to see anything falling from the sky.... and for those of us in the I-95 corridor just hoping to see a wet flake or three before the changeover... well, that may be too late. You are not crazy. 33 degrees now with an East wind. Based on Andy's radar, even a few flurries/pellets should be falling right now, but nothing. And that area of "precip" is falling apart. I agree with your assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Call me crazy, but, with the way these low dew points are drying things out, we may not see anything (wet, white or otherwise) fall from the sky until later tonight. To my very untrained eye, the non-weenie radars look like the closest precip that will actually reach us AND reach the ground is still in Ohio and West Virginia. I may need permission to stay up past my bed time tonight if I want to see anything falling from the sky.... and for those of us in the I-95 corridor just hoping to see a wet flake or three before the changeover... well, that may be too late. It won't be night, but yeah there probably won't be any precip til late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z RGEM is very 00z ECM-like. Some serious WAA in western PA, but accumulating snows to I-76 greater than 1" and the MDT to ABE line is a pretty good thump of snow more so than the previous run, snow times are approximately 4-10pm in the I-78 corridor. Waiting on snow map from the RGEM, but looks a little higher totals compared to 00z and 06z. Nothing crazy, but 4"+ at ABE up from 2.5"/3.0" previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 35.9 degrees. Light SE wind. Sun peeking out occasionally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 New GFS also suggests an inch or so of snow back home later this afternoon. Noticeably colder aloft, more EC like, could be 2-3" if it wasn't for the warming BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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